MLB Picks and Predictions – April 6, 2025 (All 16 Games)

Sunday brings a full 16-game MLB slate on April 6, 2025, offering plenty of betting action. We break down every matchup with odds, pitching battles, and expert analysis. Each game preview includes a best bet play and a top player prop to consider. Let’s dive into today’s baseball predictions and best bets for each game.

Check out these articles for winning picks:

New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 PM ET, PNC Park)

Odds: Yankees -165 (Pirates +145); Total: 8.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Yankees RHP Will Warren vs. Pirates LHP Andrew Heaney

The Yankees and Pirates wrap up their interleague series Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. New York’s powerful lineup busted out for double-digit runs on Saturday, highlighting the damage they can do against left-handed pitching. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and company are seeing the ball well early on, and they’ll get another lefty in Andrew Heaney. Heaney has historically been homer-prone – a dangerous trait against a Yankees squad loaded with right-handed power. Rookie right-hander Will Warren goes for New York, and while he’s unproven, he has a live arm that looked sharp in spring. Warren will be backed by a bullpen that has been solid so far this season. The Pirates’ young offense showed some life with a few runs in the loss yesterday, but consistency remains a question. Pittsburgh will need Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds to produce early to keep pace.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs. The Yankees should put up a crooked number against Heaney, and the Pirates can chip in a few off the rookie Warren or the middle relief. With Heaney’s home run tendencies and New York’s bullpen possibly being asked to cover multiple innings, this game has solid over potential. Both teams combined for 14 runs on Saturday, and we could see another slugfest to close the series.

Top Player Prop: Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (-130). Judge crushes left-handed pitching and is coming off a multi-hit game. Heaney’s high fly-ball rate plays right into Judge’s strength – expect at least a double or a couple of hard-hit singles from the Yankees’ slugger to clear this prop. Judge has been locked in at the plate, making this a strong prop play.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (1:35 PM ET, Citizens Bank Park)

Odds: Dodgers -130 (Phillies +110); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. Phillies LHP Cristopher Sánchez

In Philadelphia, the Dodgers and Phillies meet in a marquee National League matchup. Los Angeles sends newly acquired Tyler Glasnow to the hill. Glasnow, when healthy, is an ace-caliber arm with electric stuff – he’s coming off a dominant first outing in Dodger blue. The Phillies’ lineup, however, poses a serious challenge. Philadelphia has plenty of lefty mashers like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper (Harper is back in the middle of the lineup), but Glasnow’s high-90s heater and sharp breaking ball can neutralize even elite hitters if he’s on his game. On the other side, the Phils counter with Cristopher Sánchez, a young lefty who had a solid showing late last season. Sánchez will have to navigate a Dodgers lineup featuring Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top. Los Angeles has been patient and powerful, and they historically hammer left-handed pitching – a trend that could spell trouble for Philadelphia if Sánchez falls behind in counts.

The Dodgers took a low-scoring win on Saturday (3–1) behind stellar pitching, and they’ll look to clinch the series here. The Phillies are seeking a spark from their offense after managing just one run in that loss. Look for Philly to be aggressive early in counts against Glasnow to try to avoid two-strike situations where his curveball is deadly. Still, with the form Glasnow is in and the Dodgers’ bullpen well-rested behind him, Los Angeles has the edge on the mound. The total is set low at 7.5, reflecting the respect for Glasnow and a hint that L.A. might not need a ton of runs to secure the win.

Best Bet: Dodgers -130 (Moneyline). Los Angeles is a short favorite with the more dominant pitcher and a lineup that matches up well against a lefty. In a tight game, we’ll back the Dodgers’ firepower and pitching to prevail. Expect Glasnow to out-duel Sánchez and the Dodgers to scratch across enough runs to get the win. L.A. has the look of an expert pick here at reasonable odds.

Top Player Prop: Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (+100). Betts loves hitting at Citizens Bank Park and has a knack for punishing left-handed pitching. As the Dodgers’ leadoff man, he should get plenty of opportunities – a gap double or a pair of hits would cash this prop. With his combination of contact and power, Betts is a good bet to pile up bases against Sánchez and the Phillies’ bullpen.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (1:35 PM ET, Truist Park)

Odds: Braves -165 (Marlins +145); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. Braves RHP Grant Holmes

A classic ace vs. upstart duel is on tap in Atlanta. The Braves have been rolling to start the season, riding a potent offense and strong pitching (they shut out Miami 4-0 on Friday). However, on Sunday they face the Marlins’ ace, Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, is the definition of a workhorse and a true stopper. He’s coming off a complete-game gem in his first outing, and he’ll look to stifle a Braves lineup that’s been mashing early on. Atlanta’s hitters (Acuña, Olson, Riley) have been hot, but Alcantara’s heavy sinker and wipeout changeup can induce weak contact and keep this high-powered offense in check. The key will be whether Miami can give Alcantara any run support. The Marlins’ offense has been sluggish, failing to score in the series opener and generally struggling to string hits together. They’ll try to break through against Grant Holmes, a rookie right-hander making one of his first big-league starts for Atlanta. Holmes has a live arm but is relatively untested on this stage. Miami might see this as a prime chance to manufacture a few runs – perhaps small ball or aggressive baserunning – to back their ace.

Given Alcantara’s presence, the over/under is a low 7.5, indicating a projected pitchers’ duel. The Braves are favored due to their overall team strength and home-field advantage, but this could be a sneaky spot for an underdog play. If Alcantara dominates as he’s capable of, one or two runs could be enough for Miami to steal a win. Atlanta, meanwhile, will aim to get into the Marlins bullpen early by driving up Alcantara’s pitch count, knowing the longer Sandy stays in, the tighter this game likely remains.

Best Bet: Marlins +145 (Moneyline). This is a classic “live dog” situation with a bona fide ace on the mound. Alcantara is the great equalizer – when he’s on, he can shut down even the Braves’ mighty lineup. At +145, there’s value in backing Miami to pull off a low-scoring upset. The Braves are the better team overall, but in a single game with an ace dealing, we’ll take a shot on the underdog Marlins to grind out a win behind a stellar outing from Sandy.

Top Player Prop: Sandy Alcantara over 6.5 strikeouts (-120). Alcantara’s swing-and-miss stuff is elite, and he’s typically allowed to work deep into games (7+ innings is common for him). The Braves do have a few free swingers in their lineup, so Sandy could pile up Ks even as he keeps the ball on the ground. Look for him to rack up at least 7 strikeouts as he slices through the Atlanta order in a big-time performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (1:35 PM ET, Nationals Park)

Odds: Diamondbacks -180 (Nationals +160); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Diamondbacks RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Nationals TBD (likely RHP Joan Adon or bullpen)

The Diamondbacks are poised to sweep the Nationals in D.C., entering Sunday as one of the day’s biggest favorites. Arizona will hand the ball to Corbin Burnes, their blockbuster offseason acquisition and one of the premier pitchers in baseball. Burnes looked dominant on Opening Day, and now he draws a rebuilding Nationals lineup that has struggled to produce runs. Washington has yet to officially name a starter for this game – a sign that we could see a piecemeal bullpen game or a spot start from a young arm like Joan Adon. Either way, the advantage heavily tilts towards Arizona on the mound. Burnes’ high-90s cutter and elite strikeout ability should overpower a Nats offense that lacks punch outside of a couple of prospects. Expect the Diamondbacks to lean on Burnes for six or seven strong innings.

Offensively, the D-backs have been doing just enough this series, and they may not need a huge number of runs with Burnes dealing. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll lead a balanced Arizona attack that mixes power and speed. They’ll be facing a Washington pitching staff that has been one of the league’s worst – the Nats’ bullpen has been especially vulnerable, posting a bloated ERA in the early going. If Arizona can get a lead, Burnes and the bullpen can bring it home. Meanwhile, Washington will hope for a surprise spark, perhaps from young hitter CJ Abrams or a veteran like Jeimer Candelario, but facing Burnes is an uphill battle. The low total of 7.5 reflects the expectation that Washington may have a hard time scoring.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 run line (-110). Arizona’s moneyline is juiced, so shift to the run line for a better payout. We like the D-backs to win by multiple runs behind a gem from Burnes. The Nationals have looked overmatched and should continue to be held down, while Arizona’s offense can capitalize on Washington’s pitching uncertainty. Burnes could easily make a 5-1 type game hold up here, covering the -1.5 comfortably.

Top Player Prop: Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (-140). Burnes is a strikeout machine – he’s one of the league leaders in K’s per nine. The Nationals’ lineup is full of inexperienced hitters who have been expanding the zone. This matchup sets up perfectly for Burnes to rack up 8+ punchouts. Don’t be surprised if he flirts with double-digit strikeouts in a dominant outing.

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox – Game 1 (1:35 PM ET, Fenway Park)

Odds: Red Sox -120 (Cardinals +100); Total: 9.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Cardinals RHP Andre Pallante vs. Red Sox LHP Sean Newcomb

The Cardinals and Red Sox square off in a daytime makeup game after a rainout, the first of a day-night doubleheader at Fenway. With the shuffled schedules, both teams are turning to depth starters. St. Louis will open with Andre Pallante, typically a reliever who’s getting a spot start. Pallante is a groundball-heavy pitcher but can be hittable when stretched out. Boston counters with lefty Sean Newcomb, a former top prospect trying to revive his career. Newcomb has bounced around and struggled with command in the past – if he’s not finding the strike zone, the patient Cardinals hitters will make him pay.

Expect offense to be the theme in Game 1. The total is a hefty 9.5, and for good reason: neither pitcher is likely to go deep, and both bullpens could be taxed by evening. The heart of St. Louis’s order (Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) salivates at facing a lefty like Newcomb in Fenway’s cozy dimensions. On the flip side, Boston’s bats are dangerous at home. Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida from the left side against Pallante could do damage, especially once the Cards go to middle relievers. The Red Sox lineup has been putting up solid run totals this season – they’re averaging around 5 runs per game at Fenway – and facing a swingman starter and perhaps a tired bullpen, they should be poised to score. St. Louis has been swinging well too, scoring 6 runs in the last completed game of this series (Friday’s contest). This has the makings of a back-and-forth slugfest typical of a Fenway afternoon.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 runs. With two unproven starters and two above-average offenses in a hitter-friendly park, we’re leaning strongly on the Over. Both clubs can easily reach the middle innings in the 4-5 run range. Fenway Park is kind to hitters, and a warm day game often sees balls carrying to the Monster or out toward Pesky’s Pole. Look for double-digit runs as lineups take advantage of this matchup.

Top Player Prop: Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases (-115). Devers is a threat to notch extra-base hits in bunches, especially against right-handed pitching. He could easily rip a double off Pallante or one of the relievers. Hitting in the heart of Boston’s order, Devers should get 4-5 plate appearances. We’ll back him to collect at least two total bases – whether via a couple of singles or one big swing off the Green Monster.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (1:40 PM ET, Comerica Park)

Odds: Tigers -225 (White Sox +185); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: White Sox LHP Martín Pérez vs. Tigers RHP Jackson Jobe

It’s been a tale of two teams in this AL Central clash. The Tigers have started the season strong and are looking to complete a sweep at home, while the White Sox are searching for answers after a sluggish opening week. Detroit’s confidence is evident as they’re sizable -225 favorites on Sunday. A big reason is the debut of prized prospect Jackson Jobe on the mound. Jobe, a former first-round pick, dazzled in spring training with electric stuff. The Tigers hope he can be the shot in the arm their rotation needs. There may be some jitters in his first major league start, but Jobe’s high-90s fastball and nasty slider could feast on a White Sox lineup that has been largely inept so far. Chicago’s offense managed just two runs in each of the first two games of the series, and they’ve been especially poor against right-handed pitching recently. If Jobe commands his pitches, he has the talent to rack up zeros and some strikeouts against this free-swinging Sox squad.

On the other side, the White Sox send veteran Martín Pérez, who signed in the offseason to add stability. Pérez is crafty but has had an up-and-down career. He’s facing a young Detroit lineup that’s been surprisingly potent. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are emerging as a formidable 1-2 punch for the Tigers – both have homered in this series. Comerica Park is not known for yielding many homers, but the Tigers have still been finding gaps and piling on runs (they scored 7 and 6 runs in the first two games). Pérez will try to keep the ball on the ground, but Detroit’s hitters are seeing beach balls right now. Also, the White Sox bullpen has been overworked and ineffective, so if Pérez exits early, things could unravel. Detroit, conversely, has their late-inning arms lined up to protect a lead, as they haven’t had to use their closer in back-to-back games yet.

Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 run line (+100). Laying -225 on the moneyline is steep, so pivot to Detroit to win by 2 or more at even money. The Tigers have won the first two games by 5 and 4 runs respectively, showing they can cover this number. With Jobe’s talent set to shine and the White Sox in a funk, Detroit has strong cover potential. Look for the Tigers to give their rookie plenty of run support and cruise to another multi-run victory.

Top Player Prop: Spencer Torkelson over 1.5 total bases (+105). The former No.1 pick is heating up. Torkelson has been driving the ball with authority, including a couple of extra-base hits in this series. Facing the lefty Pérez could be a great matchup for him – Torkelson has shown he can hammer left-handed pitching, often for extra bases. A double in the gap or a pair of hits would cash this prop, and with the way Spencer is swinging, that looks very achievable.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets (1:40 PM ET, Citi Field)

Odds: Mets -130 (Blue Jays +110); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Blue Jays RHP Bowden Francis vs. Mets LHP David Peterson

Interleague action in Queens finds the Blue Jays and Mets wrapping up their series. Thus far, it’s been tightly contested – the Mets edged Toronto in a one-run game on Friday and the teams traded blows on Saturday. For the finale, the Mets have a slight edge on the mound with David Peterson, a lefty who brings experience and has had flashes of brilliance in the past. Peterson is typically solid at home and induces a lot of grounders when he’s on. He’ll need to be crafty against this dangerous Blue Jays lineup. Toronto’s offense is stacked with right-handed sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who historically feast on left-handed pitching. If Peterson leaves anything over the plate, the Jays can make him pay with the long ball. The key for Peterson will be mixing speeds and avoiding those Jays power zones.

Toronto sends Bowden Francis to the hill. Francis is a young righty still trying to establish himself; he’s filling in due to an injury in the Jays’ rotation. In his limited action, he’s shown decent control but not overpowering stuff. The Mets will look to capitalize early against Francis. New York’s lineup hasn’t been firing on all cylinders yet – Pete Alonso, for example, has just one hit in the series so far. Still, Alonso is always one swing away from changing a game, and Francisco Lindor’s bat has been waking up with a few clutch hits. The Mets would love to put pressure on Francis and get into Toronto’s middle relief by the mid innings. Both bullpens have been average, with each team’s closer having pitched yesterday.

This game sets up as a potential high-leverage chess match late. The total at 7.5 suggests oddsmakers respect the pitching and possibly a breeze blowing in at Citi Field. But given the star power at the plate, an offensive breakout wouldn’t be shocking. Toronto, in particular, has underperformed a bit in this series – they’re due for a big inning or two.

Best Bet: Blue Jays +110 (Moneyline). We’ll grab the plus-money with Toronto’s lineup in a favorable split matchup. The Jays are a live underdog here – their righty bats against a lefty starter could be the difference. If Bowden Francis can even be mediocre and keep it close, the Blue Jays’ offense has the firepower to steal this one late. Look for Guerrero and company to break through and for Toronto to snatch a win in the Queens finale.

Top Player Prop: Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+300). The Mets’ slugger has been quiet this series, but he’s overdue and gets a hittable right-hander in Francis. Alonso led the NL in homers last year and typically pummels mid-tier pitching. At +300, there’s value in betting on Pete to connect for a big fly. One mistake from Francis in Alonso’s wheelhouse could very well end up 420 feet over the left-field wall.

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (2:10 PM ET, Kauffman Stadium)

Odds: Royals -110 (Orioles -110); Total: 8.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Orioles LHP Cade Povich vs. Royals LHP Kris Bubic

It’s essentially a pick’em in Kansas City as the Orioles and Royals conclude a three-game set. The series is knotted up, with Baltimore winning big on Friday and KC bouncing back on Saturday. Sunday’s rubber match features two young southpaws. For Baltimore, Cade Povich makes his MLB debut. Povich is one of the O’s top pitching prospects, known for a sharp curveball and poised demeanor. Still, a first start in the Show can be nerve-wracking, and he’ll face a Royals lineup that showed life scoring 7 runs in yesterday’s win. Kansas City will counter with Kris Bubic, a familiar lefty who missed most of last season due to injury but is back healthy. Bubic has been an enigma in his career – at times flashing excellent changeups and at other times getting hit hard. The Orioles present a tough challenge for Bubic; they’re a young, hungry team with a lot of right-handed pop. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle, in particular, could do damage against Bubic if his command isn’t sharp.

One key angle: The Royals like to run. Bobby Witt Jr. and his teammates have been aggressive on the basepaths, already swiping a few bases in the series. If Povich allows base runners, Kansas City will test the rookie’s pickoff move and the Orioles’ catcher’s arm. Baltimore, on the other hand, has the superior bullpen, so they’ll hope Povich can get through the lineup twice and hand it off to their reliable relievers like Félix Bautista. The Royals’ bullpen has been shaky (they nearly coughed up a lead Friday). In a close game, that pendulum swings toward Baltimore. With both teams at -110, the market sees this as evenly matched – essentially boiling down to which young pitcher you trust more and which lineup can execute better against a lefty. Baltimore’s offense has more proven firepower, but Kansas City at home has the edge of familiarity and the confidence from yesterday’s win.

Best Bet: Orioles -110 (Moneyline). In a coin-flip game, lean on the better lineup and bullpen, which belong to Baltimore. The O’s have a knack for coming through late, and we like their chances to rough up Bubic enough to emerge on top. Look for Baltimore’s right-handed bats to lead the way, and for their bullpen to lock it down in the final frames. The Orioles feel like the sharper side to back in this toss-up.

Top Player Prop: Bobby Witt Jr. to steal a base (+200). Witt’s elite speed has been on display – he already has multiple steals this season. He’ll be itching to run anytime he reaches against the rookie lefty Povich (who might have slower pickoff moves) or the Orioles’ bullpen. At +200, this is a fun prop with upside. All it takes is one single or walk for Witt to have a green light. With 30+ steals last year, he’s always a threat – we’ll bank on him swiping a bag in this one.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 PM ET, American Family Field)

Odds: Brewers -150 (Reds +130); Total: 8.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Reds RHP Carson Spiers vs. Brewers RHP Chad Patrick

The Reds and Brewers finish up a high-scoring series in Milwaukee. Through two games, offense has been plentiful – Cincinnati won a 11-7 slugfest on Friday, and Milwaukee answered with a tight win on Saturday. Don’t be surprised if the trend continues Sunday with two unheralded pitchers on the mound. The Brewers turn to Chad Patrick, who is filling a back-end rotation spot. Patrick is relatively unknown, acquired in an offseason minor trade; he’s around 25 years old and profiles as a pitch-to-contact guy. The Reds will counter with Carson Spiers, another rookie who got called up after a strong spring. Spiers mixes a low-90s fastball with a decent curve, but like Patrick, he’s still very green at this level. Both lineups should feel confident facing these arms after seeing lots of pitches to hit already this weekend.

Milwaukee’s offense has been hit-or-miss, but they woke up late Saturday. Christian Yelich is setting the table nicely and William Contreras has provided pop in the middle. One big factor: the Brewers love hitting at home – their run production at American Family Field tends to spike with the help of a hitter-friendly backdrop. Meanwhile, the Reds’ young guns are making noise. Elly De La Cruz has been a terror on the bases and at the plate, and fellow youngster Matt McLain had a three-hit night Friday. Cincinnati’s lineup is sneaky dangerous with a mix of speed and power; they’ve scored 18 runs over the first two games. The Brewers’ bullpen is usually a strength, but they had to cover a lot of innings in the opener after their starter got knocked out early. By Sunday, some middle relievers might be running on fumes, which could crack the door open for more late runs. The Reds’ bullpen isn’t much better – they gave up several runs themselves – so a safe lead is never really safe in this matchup.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs. Until these teams prove they can cool each other off, keep riding the over trend. The combination of inexperienced starters and already warmed-up bats makes for an inviting over/under play. This series has seen 18 and 8 runs so far, and the circumstances haven’t changed much. Look for something like a 6-5 type game – which not only cashes the over, but also keeps live bettors on their toes. This has been an offense-first series, and Sunday should be no exception.

Top Player Prop: Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (+110). The Reds’ phenom is a human highlight reel. Elly’s mix of power and speed means he can cover 2+ total bases in a hurry – whether via a booming extra-base hit or a single that he stretches with a stolen base. Against a contact pitcher like Patrick, De La Cruz should see pitches to hit. He’s already racked up multiple hits and even a triple in this series. Bet on Elly to continue lighting it up – two total bases is a very reachable bar for him.

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (2:10 PM ET, Target Field)

Odds: Twins -120 (Astros +100); Total: 8.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Astros RHP Ronel Blanco vs. Twins RHP Chris Paddack

A potential playoff preview? The Astros and Twins wrap a competitive series in Minneapolis. Each team has secured a win so far, with Minnesota taking Saturday’s game 6-1 behind stellar pitching. On Sunday, the Twins send out Chris Paddack, who is making a comeback from Tommy John surgery. Paddack looked solid in limited action – he’s regained his low-90s fastball and plus changeup. Still, facing the Astros’ championship lineup is a true test of where he stands. Houston’s offense hasn’t exploded yet this series (only 1 run yesterday), but they’re too talented to stay quiet for long. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker form a formidable top of the order, and Yordan Alvarez remains one of the scariest hitters in baseball. Paddack will have to locate brilliantly to navigate those bats, especially Alvarez who can punish any mistake.

The Astros will go with Ronel Blanco, a swingman who has stepped into the rotation due to an injury. Blanco has average stuff – a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a slider – and tends to pitch to contact. The Twins lineup is starting to gel; Carlos Correa would love to shine against his former team, and Byron Buxton is always a threat when healthy. In fact, Buxton launched a homer on Friday and looks to be locked in. Minnesota’s offense overall can be hit-or-miss, but they have power throughout. One under-the-radar factor: the Twins have one of the best home records early this season and seem to thrive with the Target Field crowd behind them. The Astros, however, are battle-tested road warriors. This game could come down to bullpens – and both are strong. Houston’s pen is elite (even though they didn’t get to show it in a blowout loss yesterday), and the Twins’ late-inning duo of Jhoan Duran and Jorge López has been lights-out.

Best Bet: Astros +100 (Moneyline). We’ll side with the defending champs as an even-money underdog. Houston rarely stays down for long; their lineup has a significant experience edge over Paddack, and they have the bullpen to win a close one. Blanco is admittedly a question mark, but if he can keep things manageable through 4-5 innings, the Astros’ offense and relievers can take over. In essentially a toss-up scenario, give me Houston’s championship mettle to find a way.

Top Player Prop: Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (-115). Alvarez is due for a big day after a quiet Saturday. He’s one of the most consistent sluggers in MLB at generating multiple bases – whether via double or homer or even two singles. Paddack’s fastball/changeup combo could actually play into Yordan’s hands; he handles changeups very well. Look for Alvarez to barrel something up and tally at least a couple of bases. When Yordan goes hitless one night, he often rebounds with a vengeance the next – bad news for the Twins, but good news for this prop.

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET, Wrigley Field)

Odds: Cubs -145 (Padres +125); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Padres LHP Kyle Hart vs. Cubs RHP Ben Brown

Wrigley Field hosts an intriguing matchup as the Padres and Cubs conclude their set. The Cubs surprised many by dominating the Padres 7-1 on Saturday, riding a great outing from their starter. Chicago’s youth movement is paying dividends early, and today they’ll trot out another youngster, Ben Brown. Brown is a well-regarded prospect with a power fastball. He’s shown swing-and-miss stuff in the minors, but this will be one of his first tests against a star-studded lineup. And make no mistake, San Diego’s lineup, despite a slow start, is star-studded – Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts can explode at any time. The Padres have been inconsistent offensively, but they certainly have the talent to rough up a rookie if he’s not on point. Brown will need to harness his adrenaline and attack the zone; any nibbling could put him in bad counts against these hitters.

For the Padres, left-hander Kyle Hart gets the call. Hart is a journeyman who was recently added for depth – not a name anyone expected to see in the rotation to start the year. He’s filling in due to injuries to San Diego’s staff. Hart doesn’t throw hard and relies on mixing pitches, which could be tough at a windy Wrigley if he’s not commanding. The Cubs’ lineup has been surprisingly potent and balanced. Cody Bellinger has found new life in Chicago, Seiya Suzuki is healthy and providing pop, and Nico Hoerner sets the table with a high OBP. They’ll be licking their chops at the prospect of facing a soft-tossing lefty like Hart. Keep an eye on the wind at Wrigley – today it’s blowing out to left-center, which historically boosts offense. A 7.5 total is low, possibly reflecting cooler April temps, but the conditions and pitching matchup hint that runs could come in bunches if hitters elevate the ball. The Padres desperately want to avoid losing this series to the Cubs, so expect urgency from their big bats. The Cubs, meanwhile, have confidence and Wrigley faithful on their side.

Best Bet: Padres +125 (Moneyline). This is a nice value spot to grab a talented San Diego team at plus money. Yes, the Cubs have been playing well, but the Padres won’t be held down forever. They have a clear advantage in lineup experience against a rookie pitcher. We see the Padres’ offense waking up and outslugging Chicago in a possible shootout. Taking San Diego as an underdog with their firepower feels like a savvy contrarian play here.

Top Player Prop: Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (+105). Soto’s patience is legendary, but in this game he should get pitches to hit from the young Brown, who won’t want to issue free passes. Soto can rack up two bases with one swing – a double into the gap or a homer. He looked more aggressive at the plate yesterday despite the loss. In a hitter’s environment today, expect Soto to collect a couple of knocks or an extra-base hit, cashing the over on total bases.

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (2:35 PM ET, Globe Life Field)

Odds: Rays -115 (Rangers -105); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. Rangers RHP Kumar Rocker

A fascinating duel is set in Arlington, as the consistently excellent Rays face the up-and-coming Rangers. Tampa Bay has taken the first two games of this series, and they’ll look for the sweep behind Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen has been nothing short of brilliant early on – he’s yet to allow a run in his first start and carries himself with ace-like confidence. The right-hander pounds the zone with a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider, and he’s particularly tough on lineups that haven’t seen him much (which includes these Rangers). Texas, however, won’t go quietly. The Rangers boast a potent lineup with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien at the top and clutch hitters like Adolis García in the middle. They lit up the scoreboard in their previous series, but the Rays’ pitching has mostly kept them in check this weekend. If Texas is to avoid the sweep, they might need to scratch out runs by being aggressive early in counts against Rasmussen before he gets into his groove.

On the mound for Texas is the much-anticipated debut of Kumar Rocker. The former Vanderbilt star and first-round pick is finally in the big leagues after recovering from elbow surgery. Rocker has electric stuff – a high-90s fastball and a wipeout slider – but this will be his first MLB start and the Rays are a notoriously tough opponent for a debut. Tampa Bay is known for grinding out at-bats and exploiting young pitchers’ mistakes. Look for Rays hitters to test Rocker’s command; they’ll happily take walks or wait for a hanging slider. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are two Tampa batters who excel against power arms and could key the offense. The Rays have also been one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching this year, using their platoon advantages and contact skills. One factor working in Rocker’s favor: Globe Life Field is a pitcher-friendly park, and the home crowd will be energizing him. If he can harness his emotions and find the strike zone consistently, he has the raw ability to keep Texas in the game. Still, it’s a tall task facing a Rays club that’s incredibly disciplined and riding momentum.

Best Bet: Rays -115 (Moneyline). We have to back the more proven team and pitcher in this spot. While Rocker’s debut is a great story, Rasmussen and the Rays are a well-oiled machine right now. Tampa has the edge in starting pitching consistency, bullpen depth, and experience in tight games. It wouldn’t surprise us if this is low-scoring early, but eventually the Rays should pull ahead as Rocker hits a rookie wall or the Rangers’ bullpen falters. Tampa Bay at a short price is the play.

Top Player Prop: Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases (+100). Seager has been the Rangers’ most reliable hitter, and even though Rasmussen is tough, Seager can still find success. The left-handed shortstop might be one of the few who can square up Rasmussen’s arsenal. He could get this in one swing – Seager’s gap power is excellent, and he’s in the middle of everything for Texas offensively. At even money, we’ll take a shot on Seager collecting a couple of bases, perhaps via a double to the right-center gap or a pair of singles.

Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies (3:10 PM ET, Coors Field)

Odds: Athletics -115 (Rockies -105); Total: 10.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Athletics RHP Joey Estes vs. Rockies RHP Chase Dollander

Whenever a game is at Coors Field, expect the unexpected – and usually a lot of runs. We have a rare scenario where the lowly Athletics are actually favored on the road, a testament to how rough things are for Colorado’s pitching. The Rockies hand the ball to Chase Dollander, the highly touted rookie making his first big-league start. Dollander was Colorado’s top draft pick in 2024 and skyrocketed through the minors. He’s got front-line stuff, but Coors is an unforgiving venue for your debut. Thin air, breaking balls that don’t break as much, and an A’s lineup that, while not star-studded, has been scrappy and surprisingly effective in this series (Oakland won the first two games, 7-4 and 5-3). The Athletics will start Joey Estes, another youngster who is part of their youth movement. Estes has fared decently in a couple of short starts, but pitching in Denver is a different beast altogether. He’ll rely on a fastball/changeup combo to try to induce grounders, because any ball in the air can turn into a double or homer here.

On offense, both teams have reasons for optimism. The A’s don’t have household names, but they’re making the most of Coors – guys like Seth Brown and Zack Gelof have been driving balls into the gaps. Oakland’s confidence is up after back-to-back wins (winning a series is a rarity for them, let alone a sweep opportunity). The Rockies, meanwhile, still have some firepower. Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, and Ryan McMahon love hitting in their home park. So far this series, Colorado’s offense hasn’t fully erupted, but facing a less experienced arm like Estes could be the catalyst. Look for the Rockies to be aggressive early to support their rookie Dollander with a cushion. Both bullpens are shaky; Colorado’s pen, in particular, has an ERA north of 5.00 already. That means even if one of the starters somehow navigates the lineups early, mid-to-late innings could see an explosion of scoring. The total is 10.5, one of the highest of the day, reflecting the Coors effect and the unknown quantity of the starting pitchers.

Best Bet: Over 10.5 runs. It’s Coors Field with two rookie pitchers – this is a recipe for runs galore. The Athletics have shown they can score in this environment, and the Rockies are due to break out after a couple of quieter games. We could easily see both teams reach 5+ runs, and a 7-6 type shootout is on the table. Betting the over in Denver is seldom a wrong call, especially with unproven arms on the mound. Grab the over and enjoy the offensive fireworks.

Top Player Prop: Kris Bryant over 1.5 total bases (-110). Bryant has been somewhat quiet, but he’s historically hit very well at Coors Field with its expansive outfield. A guy with his power and opposite-field ability can rack up doubles here. Facing a young pitcher in Estes, Bryant should get some juicy pitches to drive. Whether it’s a deep drive to the gap or a couple of singles dropped in, Bryant has a great chance to accumulate at least two bases in this one. He’s one of the veterans Colorado relies on to set the tone, and we’ll bank on him doing just that today.

Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants (4:05 PM ET, Oracle Park)

Odds: Giants -125 (Mariners +105); Total: 7.5 runs
Pitching Matchup: Mariners RHP Bryan Woo vs. Giants RHP Jordan Hicks

An interleague West Coast battle closes out the afternoon slate, with the Mariners visiting the Giants by the Bay. These teams split the first two games, each winning a low-scoring affair, and we’re likely in for another tight contest. Seattle starts Bryan Woo, a promising young right-hander who debuted last season. Woo has good stuff and isn’t fazed by tough environments – he pitched well in a couple of hostile parks last year. He’ll enjoy Oracle Park’s pitcher-friendly confines as he takes on a Giants lineup that can be inconsistent. San Francisco’s offense largely relies on timely power; they don’t string together rallies as much as

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