NBA Betting Picks for April 11, 2025 – Today’s Predictions & Best Bets

Friday, April 11, 2025 features a full 15-game NBA slate on the final Friday of the regular season. We’ve got you covered with comprehensive previews and betting picks for each matchup. Below you’ll find team overviews, key stats and trends, injury notes, and our best bets against the spread and total for every game. Whether you’re looking for NBA betting picks April 11 2025 or just want informed NBA predictions today, this guide provides an engaging analysis to help with your wagers. Let’s dive into today’s matchups and picks:

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Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons (7:00 PM ET, Line: DET -4.5, O/U: 228.5)

Team Overview: The Bucks (45-34) have rebounded from a rough patch with a five-game win streak, pushing to secure a higher seed in the East. Milwaukee is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Detroit, dominating this rivalry. The Pistons (43-36) have been one of this season’s surprise teams, but they’ve hit a slump, dropping four of their last five games. Detroit is locked into a playoff spot and looking to build momentum at home, where they average 115+ points per game.

Recent Form: Milwaukee is surging offensively, topping 110 points in three straight games. Detroit’s defense has been shaky, allowing 113+ points in four of the last five outings.
Key Stats: The Bucks take care of the ball (under 10 turnovers per game over their last three) and crash the glass (8+ offensive rebounds per game), creating extra possessions. Detroit plays at a fast pace (5th-fastest in the NBA) but shoots just ~43% in recent games.
Injuries/Lineup: This is a back-to-back for Milwaukee (they played last night), so Giannis Antetokounmpoand other veterans could see limited minutes or rest. Detroit’s core (Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren) is expected to play, but monitor any late resting if their seed is locked.

Spread Pick: The Bucks +4.5 look appealing as underdogs. Even if Milwaukee rests a star, their depth and recent momentum should keep this game close. The Bucks have dominated Detroit for years, and their efficient offense can exploit the Pistons’ leaky defense. Expect Milwaukee to cover the spread, and an outright win isn’t off the table for a small moneyline sprinkle.

Total Pick: Under 228.5 – Detroit loves to push the tempo, but Milwaukee’s defense (just 108.3 points allowed over the last 3 games) can slow the game down. With the Bucks possibly a bit fatigued from last night and both teams eyeing the playoffs, scoring may come at a slightly slower clip. A final score in the mid-110s for each side feels realistic, keeping the game under the projected total.

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Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (Line: IND -6.5, O/U: 218.5)

Team Overview: The Magic (40-40) have clawed their way to a .500 record and are fighting for a play-in spot. Orlando leans on a stout defense and young playmakers like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Pacers (48-32) are closing in on the East’s #4 seed after an impressive season. Indiana’s high-powered offense – led by Tyrese Haliburton and mid-season addition Pascal Siakam – makes them a threat to drop 120+ on any given night.

Recent Form: Orlando has won three of its last four games, holding opponents under 105 points in those victories. Indiana, meanwhile, is coming off a hard-fought game last night and has motivation to lock up home-court advantage in the first round. They’ve won 6 of their last 8 at home.
Key Stats: The Magic rank top-10 in defensive efficiency and play at a slow pace, which is reflected in lower-scoring games. The Pacers are the opposite – a fast-paced, high-scoring offense (5th in the NBA in scoring) but middle-of-the-pack defensively. Indiana’s ball movement is elite (over 27 assists per game), which could dissect Orlando’s defense if the Magic can’t control the tempo.
Injuries/Lineup: Orlando’s lineup is mostly healthy, though guard Markelle Fultz (knee soreness) is questionable and could be limited. Indiana played star guard Haliburton heavy minutes yesterday; if the Pacers have clinched their seed, they might give him or Siakam a lighter load. Keep an eye on any last-minute rest announcements.

Spread Pick: Pacers -6.5 – Indiana’s offense at home is tough to slow down. The Magic have overachieved this year, but on the road in a must-win for Indiana, their defensive style may not be enough. Expect the Pacers to push the pace and create a cushion by the second half. Indiana’s depth and scoring punch should cover the spread, winning by high single or low double-digits.

Total Pick: Over 218.5 – This number looks a bit low given Indiana’s usual game totals. Orlando will try to grind the game down, but if the Pacers dictate tempo, the combined score should creep past the 218 mark. Look for a mid-220s total, with Indiana’s shooters making the difference. (If Haliburton or key scorers sit, tread carefully, but even then the Pacers’ style leans over.)

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Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (Line: ATL -11.5, O/U: 238.5)

Team Overview: The Hawks (37-42) are clinging to hopes of a play-in berth and will come out desperate. Atlanta’s offense runs through Trae Young, and they’ve been scoring in bunches, but defensive lapses have hurt them all season. The 76ers (24-56) have long been eliminated and are in full tank mode. Philadelphia has been resting stars and giving heavy minutes to youngsters and bench players as they look toward the draft lottery.

Recent Form: Atlanta has won two straight games, averaging 125 points in those contests – a sign that their offense is clicking at the right time. Philadelphia has lost 8 of its last 10, often by wide margins; they fell by 18+ points in three of their last five games as the roster has been depleted.
Key Stats: The Hawks rank in the top 10 in pace and offensive efficiency, but bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. That’s why we see such a high total (238.5) – Atlanta games frequently turn into shootouts. Philly’s current lineup struggles to score (under 105 points in 4 of the last 5 games) and doesn’t defend well either (allowing teams to shoot 50%+ most nights). Something’s gotta give.
Injuries/Lineup: Don’t expect to see Joel Embiid or James Harden (if he’s even still on the roster) in action – the Sixers have shut down their stars. Role players like Tyrese Maxey may also be limited or out to avoid injury in a lost season. Atlanta has a clean injury report and will ride its starters heavily with their season on the line.

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Spread Pick: Hawks -11.5 – Laying double digits on the road can be risky, but this matchup is that lopsided. Atlanta has every incentive to go all-out, while Philadelphia is essentially fielding a G-League squad. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray should torch the 76ers’ thin backcourt, and the Hawks’ weak defense likely won’t be exploited by a Sixers team lacking firepower. Atlanta needs style points here – expect them to cover comfortably, perhaps winning by 15+ if focused.

Total Pick: Over 238.5 – This is a sky-high total, but Hawks games have routinely hit the 240+ range. Atlanta could approach 130 points by themselves given Philly’s defensive issues. The question is whether the 76ers can contribute enough; even a 110-point effort from Philadelphia gets us there. Garbage time might open the floodgates for points. It’s an up-tempo game where neither side will lock down defensively, so we lean over. (If you’re wary, the safer play is the Hawks’ team total over.)

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Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics (Line: BOS -19.5, O/U: 214.5)

Team Overview: The Hornets (19-61) are finishing a dismal season and firmly in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes (though he’s already been drafted – Charlotte is eyeing the next top prospect now). Charlotte’s offense has been anemic, especially with LaMelo Ball out for the year and other veterans shut down. The Celtics (59-21) have the #2 seed in the East locked up and are one of the league’s elite teams. However, with nothing to play for in terms of standings, Boston is expected to rest or limit most of its stars tonight.

Recent Form: Charlotte has lost nine of its last ten games, often by double digits – they simply don’t have NBA-caliber talent on the floor right now. Boston has won 7 of its last 8, but keep in mind those were largely with their regular lineup. In their last game, even with some starters resting, the Celtics cruised to an easy win.
Key Stats: The Hornets rank dead-last in the NBA in offensive rating and have failed to crack 100 points in four of their last six games. Boston boasts a top-5 defense and the league’s best three-point shooting percentage. Even if the Celtics play mostly backups, those role players (Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, etc.) can shoot the lights out against a non-existent Charlotte defense. The huge spread (-19.5) reflects just how big the talent gap is between these rosters.
Injuries/Lineup: Charlotte remains without LaMelo and likely won’t risk veterans like Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier (if they even dress, they’ll play sparingly). Boston is expected to rest Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford entirely or after a token start. Look for younger guys and bench players to log heavy minutes for the Celtics.

Spread Pick: Hornets +19.5 – Boston will win easily, but nearly 20 points is a massive spread in a game where Boston’s second unit could play the majority of minutes. The Celtics backups should still dominate, but if they ease up in the fourth quarter, a backdoor cover is possible. Charlotte’s fringe players are essentially playing for contracts and might show some fight to keep the final margin respectable. We’ll grab the points and hope the Hornets can stay within 15–18 by the buzzer.

Total Pick: Under 214.5 – Don’t expect much offense from Charlotte’s side. The Celtics’ B-team might not run up the score like the starters would, especially if the game is in hand early. Boston could be content to slow the pace and just get this game over with injury-free. A final score around 110-95 feels likely, which would fall short of the total. Unless Boston’s bench puts on an unexpected scoring clinic, the under is the safer bet.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (7:30 PM ET, Line: OFF)

Team Overview: This would normally be a marquee matchup, but circumstances make it tricky. The Cavaliers (63-17 after last night) have clinched the NBA’s best record and the #1 seed in the East. They’ve been dominant all year and just dropped 135 points on Chicago, but now Cleveland is prioritizing rest. The Knicks (50-30 after last night) appear locked into the #3 seed in the East. New York exceeded expectations this season and would love to hit 51 wins, but like Cleveland, their playoff position is essentially set.

Recent Form: Cleveland has won 8 of its last 10, though last night they sat four starters and lost a tight game. New York has won 5 of 6, including a big victory over Detroit that sealed their seeding. Both teams are playing well – when at full strength.
Key Stats: The Cavs boast the league’s top defense (holding opponents to ~105 ppg) and a balanced offense with multiple 20-point scorers. The Knicks are a grind-it-out team, ranking in the top 5 in rebound rate and preferring a half-court game. However, with stars likely out, those season stats mean little – this game could be sloppy and lower scoring with bench units.
Injuries/Lineup: Expect extensive rest. Cleveland sat Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and others last night, and they’ll likely do so again on the second night of a back-to-back. The Knicks may give Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson the night off (or very limited minutes) to recharge for the playoffs. This could turn into a showcase for Cleveland’s bench (Ricky Rubio, Caris LeVert, Dean Wade, etc.) versus New York’s second unit (Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes). Lines are currently off the board due to this uncertainty.

Spread Pick: Cavaliers +?? (if available) – Without official odds, we project this game near pick’em if both teams sit starters. In that scenario, we like Cleveland’s depth to get the job done. The Cavs’ bench has been playing extended minutes lately and performing admirably, nearly winning in Indiana. New York’s backups struggled in spots when pressed into duty earlier in the year. Take Cleveland to cover any small number or win outright in what amounts to a friendly scrimmage. (If by surprise one side plays its stars, obviously back that side, but that’s unlikely.)

Total Pick: Under (if ~220) – With so much scoring talent on the bench or inactive, offense should be at a premium. The Knicks already play at a slow pace, and both coaches won’t push starters if they do play. We might see lengthy possessions and a lot of missed shots from reserve players. Unless the bookmakers post an unusually low total, the under is the play. This could be a game where neither team breaks 105 points.

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Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (Line: CHI -16.5, O/U: 235.5)

Team Overview: The Wizards (17-63) are limping to the finish as one of the league’s worst teams. Washington has fully embraced the tank, sitting any player of note and evaluating young prospects. The Bulls (37-43) had postseason aspirations but fell short. While officially eliminated from playoff contention, Chicago will want to put on a show in their final home game of the season and finish on a positive note.

Recent Form: Washington has lost 12 of its last 13 games, often in ugly fashion — they’ve been blown out by 20+ points multiple times in the past two weeks. Chicago, despite a disappointing year, has won three of the last five and just hung 113 points on Cleveland’s tough defense (albeit in a loss). The Bulls offense has looked freer with the pressure off.
Key Stats: The Wizards rank bottom-three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They give up a whopping 120.2 points per game on the road. The Bulls, by contrast, have been middle-of-the-pack but have a clear edge in talent here. Chicago’s trio of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic should feast on a Wizards defense that allows 50% shooting overall. The total is set high at 235.5 because the Bulls’ defense has been suspect too (Chicago allowed 121.3 ppg over the last three). This could be a one-sided scoring fest.
Injuries/Lineup: The Wizards have shut down basically everyone – if Kyle Kuzma or Jordan Poole are technically active, they’re unlikely to see much floor time. Expect a lineup of youngsters and 10-day contract players for Washington. Chicago might rest a veteran like DeRozan for precaution, but early indications are that their main guys will play at least some minutes to give the home crowd a show. (Do monitor final lineups – if the Bulls unexpectedly sit multiple stars, it would change the calculus.)

Spread Pick: Bulls -16.5 – It’s a huge number, but the Wizards have been losing by huge numbers routinely. Chicago’s offense should have its way from the opening tip, and the Bulls want to thank their fans with a big win. Even if one of Chicago’s stars sits, the remaining pieces are more than enough. The talent gap here is as wide as the spread suggests. Lay the points – a motivated Bulls squad can win by 20+.

Total Pick: Over 235.5 – Neither team is playing much defense lately. The Bulls just gave up 135 in their last game, and the Wizards can’t stop a youth YMCA team right now. Chicago might score 125+ themselves, and the Wizards, as bad as they are, should be able to garbage-time their way to around 110. That puts us over this lofty total. It’s always a bit nerve-wracking taking an over with a tanking team involved, but pace and lack of defense point to a track meet.

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Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans (Line: MIA -12.5, O/U: 216.5)

Team Overview: The Heat (36-44) are wrapping up a disappointing season that will see them miss the playoffs. Miami prides itself on culture and effort, so even in a lost year they’ve been playing hard. The Pelicans (21-58) have had an even rougher time – injuries and inconsistency have them near the bottom of the West. New Orleans is firmly in lottery mode and has been playing without key stars for a while.

Recent Form: Miami has won 4 of its last 6, showing some late fight. Their defense has tightened, holding opponents under 105 in three of those wins. New Orleans has lost 7 straight games; offense has completely stalled, averaging only 98 points in the last three. The Pels are simply counting down the days.
Key Stats: The Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and focus on defense – they’re 3rd in points allowed (just ~108 ppg). Offensively, they’ve struggled, ranking 25th in scoring, which is why their games often land under the total. The Pelicans, without their stars, are bottom-five in both offensive output and shooting percentage. Notably, New Orleans has failed to reach 100 points in four of the last five contests. The O/U of 216.5 is low, reflecting two underwhelming offenses.
Injuries/Lineup: Jimmy Butler might sit this one out – the Heat have little reason to risk their veteran star in a meaningless game. Even if he does play, it could be limited minutes. Miami’s younger players (Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo) may get some run to finish strong, unless coach Spoelstra opts to rest them too. On the Pelicans’ side, Zion Williamson has been out (and won’t return in a tanking effort), and Brandon Ingram also has been shut down due to nagging injuries. New Orleans is trotting out a very young lineup; expect names like Trey Murphy III and Dyson Daniels to feature prominently.

Spread Pick: Heat -12.5 – Miami is a double-digit road favorite despite their sub-.500 record, which tells you everything about New Orleans right now. The Heat’s second stringers (led by Herro and maybe Kyle Lowry) are still more reliable than what the Pelicans are putting on the floor. Miami’s defense should smother the Pelicans’ limited offense, and the Heat have enough scoring options to gradually pull away. Lay the points as the Heat likely win by 15+ if focused. (One caution: if Miami ends up resting all key players, be wary, but even then the young Heat players have shown they can compete.)

Total Pick: Under 216.5 – This game screams low scoring. Miami will control the tempo, and New Orleans doesn’t have a go-to scorer available. We might see long stretches of empty possessions from the Pels. The Heat could be content to win with defense and do just enough on offense. Something like 108-95 is a plausible outcome, safely under the total. Unless the Pelicans’ deep bench catches fire from three (unlikely), the under is the prudent play.

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Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks (Line: DAL -11.5, O/U: 224.5)

Team Overview: The Raptors (30-50) are finishing a rebuilding year and have turned the page to the future. Toronto traded veterans and is focusing on its young core, but growing pains are evident. Scoring has been a challenge for the Raps, especially on the road. The Mavericks (38-42) had a rollercoaster season and are on the brink of the play-in race. Dallas likely needs a win here (and help elsewhere) to sneak into the postseason, so expect a full effort from them.

Recent Form: Toronto has lost four straight games, failing to reach 105 points in each – their offense looks checked out. They’re just 1-9 in their last 10 road games. Dallas, on the other hand, has won back-to-back games in a late push, and they’re 5-2 in their last 7 home games. The Mavs seem to have rediscovered some rhythm just in time.
Key Stats: The Mavericks lean on their offense, averaging 114.5 ppg at home. When Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving (acquired last season) share the floor, Dallas can be explosive. The Raptors rank near the bottom in three-point shooting and points per game (only ~107 ppg). Toronto’s defense is young and has been giving up a lot of open looks (opponents shooting 39% from three against them in the last five games). Dallas’s weakness is defense, but can the Raptors capitalize? The line suggests maybe not.
Injuries/Lineup: Toronto is without Pascal Siakam (traded at the deadline) and OG Anunoby (injured), leaving the scoring load to Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. It’s possible the Raptors even rest Barnes in this finale to avoid any off-season injury risk. Dallas is expected to have Luka and Kyrie in the lineup; however, if the Mavs were eliminated from contention by earlier results, they could pull back. Assuming they’re still alive, both stars will play and Dallas will go for the big win.

Spread Pick: Mavericks -11.5 – This is a do-or-die type game for Dallas, at home, against a team already on summer vacation mentally. That’s a recipe for a blowout. Luka Dončić should dissect the Raptors’ defense and put on a show. Dallas knows style points might impress the play-in gods (or at least their fans), so they won’t let up if they build a lead. Toronto’s young squad is unlikely to keep pace once the Mavs get rolling. Give the points; Dallas could win by 15+ here.

Total Pick: Under 224.5 – The Raptors simply might not score enough to hit the over. Dallas’s defense is a concern generally, but Toronto’s offense (especially without several primary options) has been inept. The Mavericks could slow the pace in the second half if they’re up big, leading to a lower final total. We see this game perhaps in the range of 118-100. That would cash the under. Unless Luka and Kyrie decide to turn it into a playground exhibition (always a slight risk), the under is the smarter side.

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Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves (Line: MIN -17.5, O/U: 216.5)

Team Overview: The Nets (26-54) are a far cry from the superteam of years past. After trading away their stars, Brooklyn has spent this season in the league’s cellar. They’ve struggled mightily to score and are essentially in evaluation mode for next year. The Timberwolves (47-33) have had a strong season and are gearing up for the playoffs. Minnesota likely sits in the West’s top 6 and wants to fine-tune things and avoid injuries as the postseason approaches.

Recent Form: Brooklyn has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. In many of those losses, they were never really competitive (losing by 15+ frequently). Minnesota has won 6 of its last 8 and just saw a five-game win streak snapped, so they’ll be eager to bounce back. They’ve been especially good at home, winning 8 of their last 10 at Target Center.
Key Stats: The Nets are averaging only 98 points per game over their last five – scoring has come to a standstill. They shoot an NBA-worst 28% from three in that span. Minnesota, conversely, has one of the league’s better defenses at home, giving up around 106 ppg in their building. Offensively, the Wolves rely on Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns (who returned from injury) to lead a balanced attack. With Brooklyn’s defense allowing 117 ppg on the road, the Wolves should feast inside and out.
Injuries/Lineup: Brooklyn is missing virtually all its notable players (either through trades or shutdowns). Mikal Bridges was one bright spot this year, but the Nets have hinted he may sit out the finale to avoid any injury (his Ironman streak aside). Expect a very raw Nets lineup. Minnesota might use this opportunity to rest a star like Towns or Edwards for part of the game, especially if the result is in hand early. Even so, their second unit (led by veterans like Mike Conley and solid role players) can handle this Nets squad.

Spread Pick: Timberwolves -17.5 – This is a giant spread, but justified. Minnesota at home against one of the league’s worst rosters should be one-way traffic. The Wolves have incentive to start strong and then coast; if they build a 20-point lead by halftime, they can manage minutes. Brooklyn has shown no ability to backdoor cover lately – they often keep losing ground with their bench. It’s always a bit scary giving up this many points, but we’ll trust Minnesota to cover something like a 120-100 type game (if not an even bigger blowout).

Total Pick: Under 216.5 – The Nets might not crack 90 points against a playoff-level Wolves defense. Even if Minnesota goes off for 120+, the total could still stay under. Expect a slower second half if the game is decided, which means fewer points late. The under has hit in 5 of the Wolves’ last 6 games, and Brooklyn doesn’t have the firepower to push it over. Unless Minnesota’s deep reserves turn it into a layup drill in garbage time, this should come in below 216.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets (Line: DEN -7.5, O/U: 239.5)

Team Overview: The Grizzlies (47-33) and Nuggets (49-32) are two Western Conference heavyweights jockeying for playoff position. Denver currently holds a slight edge in the standings and home court tonight. The Nuggets, led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, feature a dynamic offense that thrives at altitude. Memphis, powered by Ja Morant and a high-tempo attack, is looking to prove itself on the road, where they’ve been mediocre this year. This game has seeding implications – expect a playoff-like intensity if both teams go for it.

Recent Form: Memphis played (and won) a tough game last night, so this is a back-to-back in high altitude – a challenging situation. They have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 120+ in each victory. Denver has won 3 in a row and is 6-1 in its last 7 home games, where they traditionally dominate. Both teams are hot offensively heading into this matchup.
Key Stats: The Grizzlies are just 18-21 on the road this season, a stark contrast to their home dominance. They allow about 7 more points per game when away. Denver, meanwhile, is 30-10 at home, averaging nearly 118 ppg in Ball Arena. The total is set at 239.5, reflecting two potent offenses: Denver is top 5 in offensive efficiency, and Memphis loves to push pace (top 10 in pace, and 3rd in fast break points). One area to watch is three-point shooting – Denver leads the league in 3PT% (thanks to Jokic’s playmaking and shooters like Jamal Murray), while Memphis is streaky from deep.
Injuries/Lineup: The Grizzlies may be cautious with Ja Morant’s minutes on a back-to-back. Also, forward Jaren Jackson Jr. has had a heavy workload; don’t be surprised if Memphis limits any banged-up players knowing the playoffs are next week. Denver, having rested some guys earlier in the week, should have Jokic and Murray in action, though if they secure their seed with a win they might dial back late. Both teams are near full strength on paper, but keep an ear out for any last-minute rest decisions given the back-to-back for Memphis.

Spread Pick: Nuggets -7.5 – Denver at home is a different beast. The combination of altitude and the Grizzlies’ road struggles tilts this in the Nuggets’ favor. Jokic should carve up Memphis’s defense with his passing and inside scoring, especially if Memphis shows any fatigue. The Grizzlies might hang around early with their speed, but by the second half, Denver can pull away. We’ll lay the points and trust the Nuggets to cover, winning by around 10. (If Memphis unexpectedly rests Morant or others, this line could jump, so grab -7.5 now if you like Denver.)

Total Pick: Under 239.5 – It’s tempting to take the over with these two high-octane teams, but this number is very inflated. In what could be a playoff preview, we anticipate more defensive effort than usual. Memphis knows it can’t get into a shootout at altitude, so they might try to slow it down a touch and emphasize half-court defense. Also, if Memphis’ legs are tired late, their scoring could dip, preventing the total from skyrocketing. Something like 120-112 Denver still wins comfortably but lands under 239.5. Go under and expect intensity on both ends of the floor.

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (Line: OKC -11.5, O/U: 231.5)

Team Overview: The Thunder (66-14) have had a phenomenal season – the best record in the NBA. OKC’s young core has blossomed into a powerhouse much faster than expected. Having clinched the top seed overall, the Thunder have little at stake tonight except maintaining momentum. The Jazz (17-63), conversely, are tied for the league’s worst record. Utah’s focus is on securing lottery odds, and they have been in full tank mode for weeks.

Recent Form: Oklahoma City has won 9 of its last 10, though it’s worth noting they rested some key players in their one recent loss. Even the Thunder’s bench has been competitive in spots. Utah has lost 10 straight games, often by large margins; their last five losses have come by an average of 18 points. It’s been ugly in Salt Lake City.
Key Stats: OKC’s offense ranks 2nd in the NBA (around 119 ppg) and they play at a fast pace, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. Their defense is underrated too, top 10 in efficiency. Utah, meanwhile, is near the bottom in both offense and defense since shutting down veterans – they score under 105 ppg recently and allow over 120. The Jazz turn the ball over a lot with unseasoned players at the helm. The only wild card is pace: both teams normally would play fast, but if OKC rests stars, the game might not hit the usual tempo.
Injuries/Lineup: With nothing to gain, the Thunder may rest or limit SGA, Josh Giddey, and other starters. Don’t be surprised if OKC’s lineup is mostly second-unit guys and two-way contract players (who, by the way, would love to shine given the chance). Utah has been without Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, and essentially all established contributors down the stretch. It’s the Jazz youngsters (think Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton if he plays, and a host of 10-day signees). The Jazz will also likely sit anyone with even a minor injury to ensure no accidental win.

Spread Pick: Thunder -11.5 – We’ve seen OKC’s bench compete well even when the stars sit – they have a winning culture brewing. Utah’s roster, on the other hand, is overmatched night after night. The Thunder beat the Jazz by 25 the last time even with some starters resting. It’s a big spread to cover with potentially backup players, but the Jazz are that bad right now. OKC’s fringe guys have the green light to play hard and secure roles for next year, so the effort will be there. Take the Thunder to cover in a game that could be decided by the end of the third quarter.

Total Pick: Under 231.5 – If this were full-strength vs full-strength, we’d love the over. But given the likely lineups, the scoring should be more muted. The Jazz struggle to break 100 points lately, and the Thunder might not push the pace if SGA is out. We could see a lot of one-pass possessions and half-court sets from OKC’s backups, eating clock. Defensively, even OKC’s second string can hold Utah in check. Unless OKC’s bench mob goes wild, the under looks good. A result like 120-105 (225 total) seems very plausible.

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