MMA Picks April 12-13, 2025 – UFC & PFL Best Bets & Predictions

Kingpin
Apr 9, 2025, 3:39:36 PM

UFC 314 & PFL World Tournament 2: Weekend MMA Betting Preview & Predictions

Get ready for an action-packed weekend of MMA, with PFL World Tournament 2 on Friday night and UFC 314 on Saturday. We break down every matchup on the main cards and prelims, with fighter profiles, odds, expert predictions, and the best betting plays for each fight.

Jump to:

PFL 2025 World Tournament 2 – Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)
PFL 2025 World Tournament 2 – Prelims (ESPN+)
UFC 314 Main Card (PPV)
UFC 314 Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+)
UFC 314 Early Prelims (ESPN+)

Let’s dive into the fights:

PFL 2025 World Tournament 2 – Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Leandro Higo (23-6, Brazil) vs. Josh Rettinghouse (20-5, USA) – Bantamweight Main Event (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Odds: Higo -370 (heavy favorite) vs. Rettinghouse +280
Former Bellator title challenger Leandro Higo makes his PFL debut as a sizable favorite, boasting high-level experience and a dangerous submission arsenal. The Brazilian is known for his grappling, with 13 of his 23 wins by submission. He’ll look to impose his will on Josh Rettinghouse, an American bantamweight veteran stepping in on short notice. Rettinghouse is a well-rounded fighter with solid wrestling and striking, but he hasn’t faced someone of Higo’s caliber yet. On the feet, Rettinghouse has a power edge (7 KOs in 20 wins) and will try to keep distance, but his defensive grappling will be tested early and often. Higo’s pressure and slick ground game make him the rightful -370 favorite – he’s comfortable trading strikes but truly excels once the fight hits the mat. Expect Higo to push the pace, shoot for takedowns, and work to take the back. Rettinghouse’s path to an upset lies in stuffing those takedowns and using his boxing to hurt Higo coming in. However, given Higo’s pedigree and Rettinghouse taking the fight on short notice, this looks like Higo’s fight to lose. Prediction: Higo secures a dominant ground position and finishes via submission by the second round.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds – Higo’s aggressive grappling should produce a finish before the final bell.
Top Prop: Leandro Higo to win by Submission – his rear-naked choke is a serious threat against Rettinghouse’s weaker ground defense.

Liz Carmouche (22-8, USA) vs. Ilara Joanne (12-9, Brazil) – Women’s Flyweight Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Odds: Carmouche -700 vs. Joanne +500
Veteran star Liz “Girl-Rilla” Carmouche enters this bout as one of the biggest favorites of the weekend. The American, a former UFC title challenger and Bellator champion, brings brute strength, relentless wrestling, and smothering top control. At 41, Carmouche is still a powerhouse grappler and will enjoy a clear advantage on the mat. Ilara Joanne, a Brazilian flyweight, is a late addition to the PFL roster with a sub-.500 record in her last 10 fights. Joanne has serviceable Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai, but she’s struggled against strong wrestlers in the past. On the feet, Joanne’s best weapon is her kicking game, but she lacks the takedown defense to keep fights standing. Carmouche should have little trouble closing the distance, dragging Joanne down, and dominating from top position. Look for Carmouche to advance position methodically – she has a knack for crucifix and back mount – and rain down ground-and-pound or hunt for submissions. Joanne’s hope is to catch Liz with a knee or uppercut as she shoots in, but that’s a long shot given Carmouche’s experience. The odds (-700) reflect Carmouche’s huge grappling edge and big-fight resume. Prediction:Carmouche scores an early takedown and finishes with a submission (likely a neck crank or rear-naked choke) in the first or second round.

Best Bet: Carmouche Inside the Distance – Liz should end this before the scorecards, either via ground-and-pound TKO or submission.
Top Prop: Liz Carmouche to win by Submission – her wrestling will set up a tap-out once Joanne is grounded and overwhelmed.

Check out these articles for winning picks:

Francesco Nuzzi (10-1, Italy) vs. Mando Gutierrez (10-3, USA) – Bantamweight Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Odds: Nuzzi -300 vs. Gutierrez +240
Italy’s Francesco Nuzzi and America’s Mando Gutierrez meet in an intriguing bantamweight battle. Nuzzi is a well-rounded prospect riding a 9-fight win streak, with crisp boxing and opportunistic submissions. He prefers to strike at range – using straight punches and kicks – and has shown solid takedown defense. Gutierrez is a grappler at heart, known for his aggressive wrestling and submission attempts (6 of his 10 wins by sub). However, Gutierrez’s stand-up is a glaring hole; he’s been outgunned on the feet before (notably getting submitted by a 17-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. on DWCS after struggling in the stand-up exchanges). On paper, this matchup is a classic striker vs grappler duel. Nuzzi’s key will be to keep the fight upright, where his technical striking and hand speed can pick Gutierrez apart. Gutierrez will be desperately shooting double-legs and looking to drag Nuzzi into a ground fight. The Italian has shown composure under pressure – if he can stuff a few early takedowns, Gutierrez may become a sitting duck on the feet. At -300, Nuzzi is favored due to his cleaner technique and more polished all-around game. Still, he must avoid Gutierrez’s dangerous guillotine and back-takes. Prediction: Nuzzi weathers some clinch exchanges and eventually finds his rhythm at range, outstriking Gutierrez for a unanimous decision victory (or possibly a late TKO as Gutierrez tires).

Best Bet: Francesco Nuzzi moneyline – the favorite’s striking edge and takedown defense make him a strong straight-up pick despite the chalk.
Top Prop: Francesco Nuzzi to win by Decision – Gutierrez is tough enough to survive, but Nuzzi should clearly rack up rounds with superior stand-up.

Kasum Kasumov (16-1, Russia) vs. Justin Wetzell (10-2, USA) – Bantamweight Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Odds: Kasumov -450 vs. Wetzell +350
Unbeaten in his last 16 fights, Kasum Kasumov enters the SmartCage with serious hype as a potential tournament favorite. Hailing from Dagestan, Russia, Kasumov is a sambo-based fighter who can wrestle relentlessly – but unlike many Dagestani grapplers, he also possesses dangerous striking. He’s finished opponents with head kicks and heavy hands, making him a well-rounded threat. Justin Wetzell, out of the USA, is himself a grappler-wrestler with a grinding style. Wetzell likes to shoot doubles and control opponents on the mat, accumulating ground-and-pound. The problem for Wetzell is that Kasumov does everything he does – at a higher level. In the wrestling department, Kasumov’s pedigree is likely superior, and on the feet, Kasumov has a clear edge in power and technique. Look for Kasumov to stuff Wetzell’s takedowns and force striking exchanges. Wetzell is durable and will try to make it a clinch war, but any extended stand-up sequence favors the Russian. The odds makers have Kasumov as a large -450 favorite, reflecting the talent gap. Unless Wetzell can turn this into an ugly, defensive scramble-fest, he’ll be in trouble when Kasumov lets his hands fly. Prediction: Kasumov sprawls and brawls – stuffing Wetzell’s shots and lighting him up with punches, earning a TKO victory in the first half of the fight.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds – Kasumov’s finishing ability (and Wetzell’s limited striking defense) point toward an early end.
Top Prop: Kasum Kasumov to win by KO/TKO – expect the Russian prospect to showcase his power with a knockout on the feet.

PFL 2025 World Tournament 2 – Prelims (ESPN+)

Juliana Velasquez (13-3, Brazil) vs. Ekaterina Shakalova (8-2, Ukraine) – Women’s Flyweight Quarterfinal (ESPN+ Prelim)

Odds: Velasquez -180 vs. Shakalova +150
Former Bellator champion Juliana Velasquez faces a tough stylistic matchup in Ekaterina Shakalova. Velasquez, 38, is an experienced Brazilian southpaw with sharp kickboxing and very strong takedown defense. She typically works behind a stiff jab and powerful left kick, keeping opponents at bay. Shakalova, nearly a decade younger and hailing from Ukraine, is a grappling specialist. She’s a sambo and judo practitioner who will relentlessly shoot takedowns and look for top control. This fight will likely be decided by distance management – if Velasquez can stick and move, she can rack up points; if Shakalova closes the distance, she could dictate the fight on the mat. The odds slightly favor Velasquez (-180) given her championship experience and more well-rounded game. She’s also stepping in after a last-minute bracket shuffle (with Taila Santos withdrawing), so motivation is high. Look for Velasquez to use lateral movement and make Shakalova pay with counter strikes each time the Ukrainian rushes in. Shakalova’s best hope is to catch a kick and force a clinch, or time a double-leg when Velasquez commits to punches. Once on top, Shakalova is heavy and methodical, but getting past Juliana’s hips is the big challenge. Prediction: Velasquez uses veteran savvy to keep it mostly standing, picking apart Shakalova with cleaner striking and stuffing enough takedowns to win a decision.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds – This has the makings of a tactical, grinding fight likely to go the distance, with Velasquez defending and countering and Shakalova clinging and clinching.
Top Prop: Juliana Velasquez to win by Decision – the former champ’s defensive prowess and experience should earn her a judges’ nod in a relatively low-scoring fight.

Matheus Mattos (14-3-1, Brazil) vs. Jake Hadley (11-4, England) – Bantamweight Quarterfinal (ESPN+ Prelim)

Odds: Hadley -130 vs. Mattos +110
A compelling bantamweight tilt sees Brazil’s Matheus Mattos take on England’s Jake “White Kong” Hadley. Mattos is a heavy-handed striker with a background in Nova União – he’s got knockout power in both hands and loves to brawl in the pocket. He’s coming off a stint in Bellator where he showed flashes of brilliance but also holes in his defense. Hadley, a former Cage Warriors champion and UFC vet, is a dynamic grappler with slick submissions, especially from top control. On the feet, Hadley has southpaw kickboxing and fast hands, though he’s been hittable at times. This fight could be fireworks: Mattos will march forward throwing bombs, while Hadley might use his movement and kicks to set up takedowns. The odds are tight (Hadley slight -130 favorite), reflecting how evenly matched their strengths and weaknesses are. If it stays standing, Mattos has the edge with power and aggression, but he must avoid over-extending – Hadley excels at ducking under punches to shoot a double-leg or transitioning to the back in scrambles. On the mat, Hadley’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu could be the difference; Mattos has been submitted before, and Hadley will capitalize if it turns into a grappling exchange. Prediction: After some tense striking exchanges, Hadley finds a way to drag Mattos down by round 2 and locks in a submission. Hadley’s versatility and ground game give him the nod in a wild fight.

Best Bet: Jake Hadley moneyline – at nearly pick’em odds, the Englishman’s grappling advantage is worth backing to get the win.
Top Prop: Jake Hadley to win by Submission – his transitions and choke game could very well catch Mattos once the fight hits the canvas.

Jena Bishop (7-2, USA) vs. Kana Watanabe (13-3-1, Japan) – Women’s Flyweight Quarterfinal (ESPN+ Prelim)

Odds: Bishop -170 vs. Watanabe +140
American grappling ace Jena Bishop meets Japan’s Kana Watanabe in another clash of styles at women’s flyweight. Bishop is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who’s made a solid transition to MMA – her game plan is no secret: get the takedown and hunt submissions. She has slick armbar and choke setups and improved wrestling entries with each fight. Watanabe, by contrast, is a judo specialist and former RIZIN contender. She’s physically strong in the clinch, often tossing opponents with hip throws, and has awkward but effective striking (though not much knockout power). The key here will be positional control. Bishop will pull guard or shoot doubles to bring Watanabe to the mat, whereas Watanabe might actually welcome grappling exchanges from top position given her judo base. However, Watanabe has been caught in submissions before (she was nearly armbarred in previous fights and got finished by strikes by Liz Carmouche). Bishop’s submission game is a level above what Watanabe has seen outside the UFC. If Bishop gets on top, Watanabe could be in deep trouble. Conversely, if Kana can stay standing and turn this into a clinch battle against the cage, she could wear Bishop down with knees and short strikes. Odds favor Bishop (-170) due to her finishing upside on the ground. Prediction: Bishop eventually finds a way to Watanabe’s back during a scramble and secures a choke. Look for a back-and-forth first round before Bishop’s relentless submission attacks pay off in round 2.

Best Bet: Jena Bishop moneyline – her submission skill set should prevail, and at -170 the price is reasonable for the likely grappler control.
Top Prop: Jena Bishop to win by Submission – expect Bishop to capitalize on any ground exchange by locking in a fight-ending choke or joint lock.

Diana Avsaragova (6-1, Russia) vs. Elora Dana (7-0, Brazil) – Women’s Flyweight Quarterfinal (ESPN+ Prelim)

Odds: Avsaragova -120 vs. Dana +100 (near even)
This is a matchup of rising prospects: Diana Avsaragova, a Russian striker and wrestler, against Elora Dana, an undefeated Brazilian making her PFL debut. Avsaragova gained attention in Bellator with her explosive striking – she has a combat sambo background and crisp boxing combinations. She’s physically strong and has shown she can land takedowns as well, though she’s still developing her overall game. Dana enters with an unblemished 7-0 record, primarily on the regional circuit (she’s a former Jungle Fight champion). Dana’s style is aggressive: she likes to press forward with wild flurries and then latch onto submissions if the fight hits the floor (4 of her 7 wins by sub). The odds are essentially pick’em, reflecting uncertainty about how Dana will perform at this level and Avsaragova’s consistency. Avsaragova’s lone loss exposed some cardio issues and vulnerability to grapplers – that’s something Dana will try to exploit. Early on, expect Avsaragova to use her speed and striking technique to tag Dana on the way in. Dana might look a bit raw standing, but if she can force a clinch or scramble, her opportunistic grappling could come into play. This bout could very well come down to who imposes their fight first: Avsaragova scoring with jabs and doubles vs. Dana creating chaos and looking for a quick submission. Prediction: Avsaragova stays composed, using her jab and superior footwork to outstrike Dana over three rounds. It might be close, but the Russian’s experience against better competition should earn her a decision victory in a competitive fight.

Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance – Both women are tough and evenly matched, so a full three-round affair is likely.
Top Prop: Diana Avsaragova to win by Decision – her technical striking and wrestling defense can carry her to a points win, even if she has to survive a few shaky moments on the ground.

Marcirley Alves (12-4, Brazil) vs. Vilson Ndregjoni (11-4, Albania) – Bantamweight Quarterfinal (ESPN+ Prelim)

Odds: Alves -200 vs. Ndregjoni +170
Rounding out the PFL prelims is a bantamweight tilt between Marcirley Alves, a Brazilian finisher, and Vilson “Strong Eagle” Ndregjoni, an Albanian fighter based in the U.S. Alves is something of a wildcard – he’s a well-rounded fighter with a knack for finishes (most of his wins come inside the distance). He’s aggressive on the feet with looping punches and isn’t afraid to pull guard and work submissions off his back. Ndregjoni, a former CFFC champion, is making his PFL debut. He’s a grinder: compact boxing, good dirty boxing in the clinch, and decent wrestling. Ndregjoni’s moniker “The Strong Eagle” reflects his physicality; he likes to push the pace and make fights gritty. The betting line favors Alves at -200, likely due to his finishing rate and experience in international competition. However, if Alves can’t put Ndregjoni away early, this could turn into a grueling battle. Ndregjoni will try to test the Brazilian’s cardio by pressuring constantly. Look for Ndregjoni to mix in body shots and takedown attempts to sap Alves’ power. Alves, on the other hand, will want to create space and unleash a fight-ending blow or latch onto a guillotine if Ndregjoni shoots in carelessly. Prediction:Ndregjoni’s pace and toughness may carry him late, but the pick is Marcirley Alves by decision. He should win the more impactful exchanges and threaten enough off his back to edge out rounds, even if he doesn’t get the finish. It could be a close, hard-fought scrap with momentum swings, but Alves’ versatility gives him the slight edge.

Best Bet: Marcirley Alves moneyline – the Brazilian’s ability to end the fight in multiple ways makes him a solid favorite to include in parlays or straight bets.
Top Prop: Marcirley Alves to win by Decision – despite both men’s finish rates, their skills may neutralize each other, leading to a tight bout that goes the distance with Alves doing just enough to get the nod.

UFC 314 – Main Card (PPV on ESPN+)

Event: UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Date/Time: Saturday, April 12, 2025 – Main Card 10:00 PM ET (PPV)
Location: Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
The UFC returns to Miami with a stacked pay-per-view event. The main card features a mix of championship action, top contenders, and cross-promotional superstars making their UFC debut. Let’s break down the main card matchups:

Alexander Volkanovski (26-4, Australia) vs. Diego Lopes (21-6, Brazil) – UFC Featherweight Championship Main Event (PPV)

Odds: Volkanovski -1000 vs. Lopes +600
Reigning featherweight king Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski puts his title on the line against Diego Lopes in a fight that has many scratching their heads – on paper it’s a massive mismatch, and the odds (-1000 for Volk) reflect that. Volkanovski is the #1 pound-for-pound fighter for a reason: the Australian has virtually no weaknesses. He’s a cardio machine with pinpoint striking (especially nasty leg kicks and multi-layered boxing combos) and elite fight IQ, not to mention rock-solid wrestling and sub defense. Lopes, a Brazil native fighting out of Mexico, is a dangerous prospect who earned this shot after a string of impressive finishes. A black belt in jiu-jitsu, Lopes is opportunistic on the mat and showed his mettle in a short-notice UFC debut against Movsar Evloev (nearly catching a submission). He’s since notched a couple of UFC wins by submission, earning him this crack at gold. The storyline here: Can the massive underdog Lopes shock the world? For that to happen, he likely needs to get Volkanovski to the ground and latch onto something – easier said than done. Volk has made a career out of dismantling BJJ specialists (just ask Brian Ortega, who had Volk in two deep chokes only to see the champ escape and batter him). On the feet, Volkanovski’s speed, feints, and angles will be a nightmare for Lopes, who tends to be a bit wild with his striking and could be countered at will. Expect Volkanovski to start methodically, using leg kicks to slow Lopes and jabs to gauge distance. Lopes is tough and will throw back with spinning attacks or flying knees to create a scramble, but any mistake could see him eating a flush combination. As the fight progresses, Volkanovski’s pace usually breaks opponents. Prediction: Volkanovski dominates from bell to bell – stuffing takedowns, piecing up Lopes with strikes, and likely finding a finish. A TKO in the middle rounds (perhaps Round 3) is on the cards as Volkanovski’s volume overwhelms the challenger.

Best Bet: Under 3.5 Rounds – Volkanovski’s intent will be to make a statement. Once he finds his range, he should overwhelm Lopes well before championship rounds.
Top Prop: Alexander Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO – the champ’s striking advantage is huge, and a barrage of punches or elbows could force a referee stoppage once Lopes starts to wilt.

Paddy Pimblett (22-3, England) vs. Michael Chandler (23-9, USA) – Lightweight Co-Main Event (PPV)

Odds: Pimblett -130 vs. Chandler +110
Fan-favorite “The Baddy” Paddy Pimblett gets by far the toughest test of his career in former title challenger Michael “Iron” Chandler. In an intriguing twist, the odds have flipped to favor Pimblett (-130) after opening with Chandler as the favorite – reflecting bettors’ belief in the younger fighter’s momentum. Pimblett, 29, is undefeated in the UFC (6-0) and riding high off a first-round submission of Bobby Green that vaulted him into the rankings. He’s a charismatic brawler with a slick ground game: wild hooks and flying knees on the feet, transitioning into scrambles where he hunts for back-takes and chokes. Chandler, 38, is an explosive powerhouse – a veteran known for his highlight-reel knockouts and suplex slams and for all-out wars (sometimes to his detriment). Chandler is on a two-fight skid and has shown some wear, but he still carries fight-ending power in every limb. Expect chaos here: Chandler will look to blitz Pimblett early with looping right hands and patented leaping left hook. Paddy tends to start a bit slow and hittable – he’s been cracked in past fights (he was dropped in fights he ended up winning). If Chandler connects clean in the opening exchanges, Pimblett will be in trouble. On the flip side, Pimblett’s cardio and grappling could be key if the fight goes long. Chandler’s kryptonite has been savvy submission artists (he’s been caught in rear-naked chokes a couple of times when he overextended). Pimblett will likely try to weather the initial storm, then drag Chandler into a wild scramble by initiating grappling or even pulling guard to set up sweeps. Once entangled, Paddy’s youth and creativity could turn the tide. The big X-factor is Chandler’s fight IQ: he sometimes fights with reckless abandon, which could play right into Pimblett’s hands. Prediction: In a back-and-forth thriller, Pimblett survives some scary moments (possibly getting rocked early) and rallies when Chandler slows down. Look for Pimblett to take Chandler’s back in a scramble in round 2 or 3 and cinch in a fight-ending rear-naked choke. The passing of the guard continues as Paddy earns the signature win of his career.

Best Bet: Fight Under 2.5 Rounds – both men are finishers and the matchup guarantees fireworks. Whether it’s Chandler’s KO power or Paddy’s submission game, this likely doesn’t see the judges.
Top Prop: Paddy Pimblett to win by Submission – if “The Baddy” gets Chandler into a grappling exchange after the initial burst, a tap could come swiftly (rear-naked choke being the prime candidate).

Bryce Mitchell (15-1, USA) vs. Jean “Lord” Silva (15-2, Brazil) – Featherweight Main Card (PPV)

Odds: Silva -400 vs. Mitchell +300
A fascinating featherweight bout pits Arkansas native Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell against UFC newcomer Jean “Lord” Silva. It’s not often you see the unranked debutant favored heavily (-400) over a ranked stalwart, but Silva isn’t your typical newcomer. Hailing from Brazil, Jean Silva has been on an absolute tear – riding a 12-fight win streak – and has drawn comparisons to Jose Aldo for his explosive Muay Thai and formidable takedown defense. Silva earned his nickname “Lord” by ruling over regional circuits, and he impressed UFC scouts with a brutal knockout in his last fight. Bryce Mitchell, on the other hand, is one of the division’s best grapplers, known for his Twister submission and relentless chain wrestling. However, Mitchell is coming off a rough loss to Ilia Topuria and a series of injuries; questions linger about his striking development and mindset. Style-wise, this is another striker vs grappler duel. Mitchell will desperately try to get his hands on Silva and drag him down. He averages over 3 takedowns per fight and is suffocating from top control. But getting Silva down is a big ask – the Brazilian has shown excellent sprawl-and-brawl technique. On the feet, Silva’s kicks and knees could punish Mitchell’s single-leg attempts. Expect Silva to attack the legs early to slow Mitchell’s shot. Mitchell’s striking is serviceable (he’s tough and throws a decent overhand left from southpaw), but he’s outgunned by Silva’s speed and precision. If Bryce can’t secure a takedown in the first round, the striking damage will accumulate. The odds makers favor Silva for his ability to keep it standing and pick Mitchell apart. Prediction: Silva shines in his debut, stuffing Mitchell’s takedowns and unloading with combinations. After chewing up Bryce’s lead leg and body with kicks, Silva lands a fight-finishing flurry. Mitchell’s toughness might get him to round 2, but ultimately Silva’s striking will prove too much. Silva by TKO is the pick, handing Mitchell a second straight loss.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds – Silva’s offensive output and Mitchell’s refusal to quit could lead to a decisive finish one way or the other before the final round. If Bryce can’t implement his grappling, he’s likely to get stopped by strikes. Conversely, if he does get it down, he could snatch a submission early.
Top Prop: Jean Silva to win by KO/TKO – the newcomer’s striking is dynamic and powerful, and he’ll be looking for a statement knockout in his first UFC appearance.

Yair Rodriguez (16-4, Mexico) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (35-6, Brazil) – Featherweight Main Card (PPV)

Odds: Rodriguez -220 vs. Freire +180
A true cross-promotion superfight sees former UFC interim champ Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez welcome Bellator legend Patricio “Pitbull” Freire to the Octagon. This is a featherweight fans’ dream matchup: Rodriguez is one of the flashiest strikers in MMA, while Pitbull is one of the most accomplished 145/155-pound fighters outside the UFC. Yair, 32, is coming off losing his title unification bout to Volkanovski but remains at his peak. He’s a dynamic kicker with knockout power (just ask The Korean Zombie, whom Yair KO’d with an incredible elbow). His height and reach, plus creativity (spinning attacks, flying knees), make him a tricky puzzle. Patricio Pitbull, 37, is making his UFC debut after an illustrious Bellator career where he held titles in two divisions. He’s compact, powerful, and well-rounded – known for explosive boxing (especially a crushing left hook) and a black belt BJJ game. However, Pitbull is undersized for featherweight at 5’6” and is coming off a drop to bantamweight last year that didn’t go well. The odds favor Rodriguez (-220) likely due to the size, age, and recent form factors. In terms of the fight: Yair will want to keep this at kicking range. Expect him to fire off thunderous body kicks and front kicks to keep Pitbull at distance. Pitbull will look to slip inside with his boxing and possibly use leg kicks of his own (he has great calf kicks) to slow Yair’s movement. Pitbull’s experience is vast – he won’t be intimidated by Yair’s highlight-reel strikes. If he can time Yair and land a big overhand right or left hook, he could turn the fight in an instant. Also, don’t sleep on Pitbull’s grappling; if he can catch a kick and put Yair on his back, he has suffocating top control and vicious ground-and-pound. The question is whether Pitbull can close that gap without eating fight-altering shots. Prediction: In the early going, Pitbull’s savvy keeps things competitive – he’ll land a few hard counter punches on Yair. But as the fight progresses, Rodriguez’s length and pace should pull away. By round 3, Yair will be in full flow, mixing up kicks and elbows to frustrate Pitbull. Unless Patricio finds a knockout shot, Yair’s volume and diverse attack will earn him a decision victory. Don’t be surprised if Yair has to survive a scare, but the fresher, bigger fighter gets it done.

Best Bet: Yair Rodriguez moneyline – at moderate favorite odds, the younger, taller, dynamic UFC vet is a solid bet to win outright.
Top Prop: Yair Rodriguez to win by Decision – Pitbull is incredibly durable and savvy; even if Yair racks up damage, the Brazilian likely lasts all three rounds. Yair by points is a plausible outcome as he outstrikes Pitbull in a competitive contest.

Nikita Krylov (30-10, Ukraine) vs. Dominick Reyes (12-5, USA) – Light Heavyweight Main Card (PPV)

Odds: Krylov -220 vs. Reyes +180
Kicking off the main card, we have a light heavyweight clash between Nikita “The Miner” Krylov and Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes. Krylov is on a strong run in the 205-lb division, and the aggressive Ukrainian has developed into a well-rounded finisher. He’s a fast starter known for his high output – expect kicks from distance and quick entries into the clinch where he can unleash knees or work trips. Reyes, a former title challenger best known for his razor-thin fight with Jon Jones, is trying to snap a four-fight losing streak. The American striker has devastating power in his left hand and kicks, but questions surround his chin and confidence after suffering three straight KO/TKO losses. This fight could be a turning point for Reyes, who hasn’t fought since 2023 – if his chin hasn’t recovered, Krylov will test it early and often. Krylov (-220 favorite) likely will mix things up with takedown attempts to keep Reyes guessing. Nikita’s grappling is underrated; he has 15 submissions on his record and could choose to wrestle given Reyes’ recent struggles. Reyes historically has solid takedown defense, but he’s also shown fatigue in grappling-heavy fights. On the feet, Reyes has a technical boxing edge and one-punch knockout ability (ask Chris Weidman or Jared Cannonier). Krylov, however, has a more varied arsenal standing – including head kicks and unpredictable flurries – and he’s shown better durability of late. Prediction: Krylov sets a blistering pace from the opening bell, not allowing Reyes to get comfortable. Reyes will have a puncher’s chance, particularly in round 1, to catch Krylov coming in. But more likely, Krylov’s pressure causes Reyes to backpedal and make mistakes. By round 2, we could see Krylov land a big head kick or a flying knee as Reyes is against the fence. The pick is Krylov by knockout – he’ll crack Reyes with something big once “The Devastator” slows down. It’s possible Krylov even mixes in ground-and-pound TKO after rocking Reyes standing. Either way, Krylov’s momentum continues, while Reyes faces a hard road ahead.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds – both men are finishers and tend to start fast. Krylov’s last few wins have come early, and Reyes’ last few losses have as well. A quick finish either way is a strong possibility.
Top Prop: Nikita Krylov to win by KO/TKO – given Reyes’ chin issues lately, Krylov by knockout is an enticing prop. He has the striking volume and creativity to find that fight-ending blow.

UFC 314 – Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+)

Dan Ige (17-6, USA) vs. Sean Woodson (9-1-1, USA) – Featherweight Prelim (ESPN)

Odds: Ige -280 vs. Woodson +220
Featherweight fireworks are expected as Dan “50K” Ige meets Sean Woodson. Ige, a Hawaiian brawler, is a perennial top-15 guy known for his toughness, boxing combinations, and thunderous overhand right. He’s coming off two impressive wins and appears to be peaking again. Woodson is one of the tallest featherweights at 6’2” with an absurd 78” reach. He’s a rangy striker who uses a long jab and teep kicks to keep foes at bay. This matchup will test Woodson’s range management against Ige’s pressure. Ige (-280) is rightly favored – he has faced far stronger competition and has more ways to win. He possesses underrated wrestling and a black belt in BJJ, though he often prefers to stand and trade. Woodson’s lone loss came via submission, exposing a possible ground weakness. We might see Ige mix levels: feint the overhand to get inside and then shoot takedowns if Woodson’s length frustrates him. On the feet, Woodson will try to pepper Ige with jabs, knees, and the occasional flying knee when Ige lunges in. The concern for Woodson is his defense in close – he’s been clipped and even dropped (Louis Saldaña knocked him down in a fight Woodson salvaged to a draw). Ige’s power and hand-speed in the pocket could be the difference. Prediction: Ige’s experience shines through. He’ll navigate Woodson’s long strikes, slip inside and hammer the body and head with hooks. By round 2, Ige likely lands a fight-altering overhand right as Woodson’s hands drop. While Woodson is game and may survive to a decision, expect Ige to clearly outwork him. Dan Ige by decision, winning 2 rounds to 1 with the harder, cleaner shots (a late finish is possible if he really pours it on).

Best Bet: Dan Ige moneyline – the veteran has all the tools to get the job done, and his straight-up price, while chalky, is justified given the matchup edges in power and experience.
Top Prop: Dan Ige to win by Decision – Woodson’s length may help him survive even if he gets hurt, and Ige is content to win on points if the finish doesn’t present itself. A judges’ decision in Ige’s favor is a solid prop play.

Yan Xiaonan (18-3, China) vs. Virna Jandiroba (18-4, Brazil) – Women’s Strawweight Prelim (ESPN)

Odds: Yan -200 vs. Jandiroba +170
Top-10 strawweights collide as striker vs grappler once again: Yan Xiaonan takes on Virna Jandiroba. China’s Yan is a former title challenger riding high after a stunning TKO win over Jessica Andrade in 2024. She’s a fast and powerful kickboxer with excellent boxing combos and footwork. When Yan can dictate a kickboxing match, she’s a nightmare for opponents (see her dominant win over Mackenzie Dern by out-striking and stuffing takedowns). Brazil’s Jandiroba is a submission specialist and former Invicta FC champion. “Carcará” has world-class BJJ – if she gets an opponent down, they’re often in deep trouble (13 of her 18 wins by sub). Her striking has improved, but she’s still at a deficit on the feet against someone like Yan. The key here is takedowns: can Virna get inside and drag Yan to the mat? Jandiroba’s wrestling is decent but not unstoppable. She’ll likely try to clinch and use trips or pull guard if needed. Yan’s takedown defense has looked strong lately, and she trains diligently to avoid the ground. On the feet, Yan (-200 favorite) should have a significant advantage in speed and output. Look for her to stick Jandiroba with jabs, straight rights, and vicious body kicks. Virna’s striking isn’t to be entirely discredited – she has a stiff jab and overhand right – but those mainly serve to close distance for a shot. If Jandiroba does latch onto Yan, we’ll see how Yan handles being on her back. Yan’s ground game has been her question mark; she was controlled and submitted by Carla Esparza a few years ago. Virna will try to replicate that blueprint. Prediction: Yan Xiaonan fights smart, using lateral movement to prevent being cornered and firing combinations whenever Virna inches forward. Jandiroba might secure a takedown or two, but Yan will scramble up or survive without serious damage. Over three rounds, Yan’s striking will far outweigh Virna’s grappling success. Yan by unanimous decision, with possibly a scare if Jandiroba comes close on an armbar attempt at some point – but ultimately “Fury” Yan’s volume carries the day.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds – Historically, Yan’s fights with grapplers tend to go to decision (as she defends and strikes), and Virna is durable, having never been finished in the UFC. Expect this to go the full 15 minutes.
Top Prop: Yan Xiaonan to win by Decision – the likely scenario is Yan outpointing Jandiroba while avoiding getting caught. A points victory for the Chinese striker is the prudent prop bet.

Chase Hooper (12-3-1, USA) vs. Jim Miller (36-18, USA) – Lightweight Prelim (ESPN)

Odds: Miller -135 vs. Hooper +115
Veteran meets prospect in this lightweight tilt between Jim “A-10” Miller and Chase Hooper. Jim Miller, 39, is a living legend of the UFC with the most fights in company history. He’s a savvy southpaw with knockout power in his left hand and an arsenal of chokes on the mat. In recent years, Miller has been a litmus test for up-and-comers – if you can beat him, you belong; if not, he’ll finish you quickly. Chase Hooper, 24, is one of the younger fighters on the roster. The lanky grappler moved up from featherweight to lightweight, and it paid dividends in his last fight, where he used his improved striking to win a decision. Hooper’s bread-and-butter, however, is Brazilian jiu-jitsu – he loves scrambling and hunting submissions (particularly triangles and leg locks). The odds have Miller slightly favored, reflecting his experience and finishing ability. Early in this fight, Miller will be the most dangerous man. He typically comes out hot, looking to land a big overhand left or jumping knee. Hooper has shown a tendency to get hit (he used to eat a lot of shots at 145). If he hasn’t shored up his defense, Miller could floor him. The flip side: Miller’s gas tank has historically faded after Round 1. Hooper has youth and cardio on his side. If he can weather Miller’s initial storm and turn this into a grappling match in rounds 2 or 3, he could take over. On the ground, it’s an interesting battle: Miller is a black belt with tons of submission wins, but Hooper’s length makes him tricky (he can throw up triangles from unexpected angles). We might see a fun scramble-fest if it hits the mat. Prediction: Jim Miller’s veteran savvy carries him to another win. He knows Hooper’s biggest weakness is striking defense, so expect Miller to keep this standing early and land something big. Hooper might try to pull guard or entangle Miller, but Jim’s top game and submission awareness are excellent. A hurt Hooper could find himself caught in a guillotine if he shoots desperately. The pick is Miller by TKO in the first round, catching Hooper with a left hand and polishing him off with ground strikes. If Chase survives the first, the momentum swings, but I’ll bank on Miller’s fast start.

Best Bet: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance – whether it’s Miller’s early onslaught or Hooper drowning a tired Miller late, a finish is likely. Jim Miller doesn’t often see the scorecards these days, and Hooper is all-action.
Top Prop: Jim Miller to win by KO/TKO – a slight curve from his usual submission route, but Miller’s hands have quietly done damage (he has first-minute knockouts in 2022 and 2023). He can catch the defensively green Hooper and notch another KO.

Darren Elkins (27-12, USA) vs. Julian Erosa (28-12, USA) – Featherweight Prelim (ESPN)

Odds: Erosa -210 vs. Elkins +170
Two all-action featherweights square off as “The Damage” Darren Elkins meets Julian “Juicy J” Erosa. This could be a Fight of the Night sleeper on the prelims given both men’s fighting style. Elkins, 39, is a blood-and-guts grinder famous for his toughness and never-say-die attitude (the man literally has “The Damage” tattooed on his chest). He will eat punches and keep coming, looking to drag opponents into deep water with his wrestling and pace. Erosa, 34, is a rangy fighter with an unorthodox striking style and a penchant for wild brawls. He’s tall for 145 and uses knees and kicks well, plus he has a sneaky submission game (particularly the D’Arce choke – the same choke he used to finish Woodson). However, Erosa’s chin can be shaky – he’s been knocked out multiple times in the UFC. The odds favor Erosa (-210) likely because he’s the fresher fighter and has more diverse offense. The crux: can Erosa inflict enough damage to stop Elkins? Or will Elkins make it ugly and grind Erosa down? Early on, Erosa should have success. He’s faster and his awkward striking could cut Elkins up. Look for Erosa to land a high volume of jabs, front kicks, and the occasional flying knee attempt. Elkins will wear it and keep plodding forward, attempting to clinch and tackle Erosa to the mat. If Elkins can get on top, he’ll smother and land short elbows (he’s a master of ugly ground-and-pound that opens cuts). Erosa’s guard is active, but giving up takedowns could cost him rounds. Prediction: This fight likely goes the distance with wild momentum swings. Erosa might nearly finish Elkins in the first with a flurry (fans have seen Elkins badly hurt many times only for him to recover). As the fight goes on, Elkins’ pressure and Erosa’s wavering durability could see “The Damage” take over late. However, the pick is Julian Erosa by decision – he should be able to do just enough with volume striking and submission threats off his back to edge two of the three rounds. Expect a bloody, high-paced scrap where Erosa’s cleaner shots trump Elkins’ takedowns in the eyes of the judges.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds – Elkins fights almost always extend into the later rounds due to his resilience, and Erosa, while a finisher, will likely need to pace himself to avoid gassing. The over on rounds is a solid play.
Top Prop: Julian Erosa t