Kingpin analysis
Charriere vs Miranda Prediction UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks 9/28

© Per Haljestam-Imagn Images
UFC Fight Night Odds and Picks: Moicano vs. Saint Denis - Fight Preview: Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda
The featherweight matchup between Morgan Charriere and Gabriel Miranda is set to be an exciting clash at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis. Charriere, known as "The Last Pirate," will be looking to make a statement in front of his home fans in Paris, while the Brazilian submission specialist Miranda aims to extend his UFC momentum after his recent victory.
Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Morgan Charriere | -800 |
| Gabriel Miranda | +475 |
Charriere enters this fight as the heavy favorite, thanks to his striking prowess and ability to finish fights. Miranda, on the other hand, will look to use his exceptional submission game to upset the odds and earn a victory.
Fighter Backgrounds
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere, hailing from France, is one of the country's most prominent featherweight fighters. Fighting out of Team Chapa Quente, Charriere boasts a professional record of 19-10-1. Known for his knockout power and relentless pressure, Charriere has earned the nickname "The Last Pirate" due to his ability to conquer opponents in brutal fashion. At 28 years old, Charriere is in his prime and has shown incredible knockout ability with 11 victories by TKO.
After making waves on the regional scene, Charriere has steadily built his reputation as a dangerous striker. His recent victories, including a knockout win over Manolo Zecchini at UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac, have solidified his place as one of France's top featherweights.
Gabriel Miranda
Gabriel Miranda is a submission specialist from Brazil who has earned 16 of his 17 victories via submission. Fighting out of MMA Masters, Miranda is known for his aggressive grappling style and the ability to finish fights quickly once the bout hits the mat. Standing at 5'11", Miranda typically uses his height and reach to initiate clinch exchanges and drag his opponents into his world of submissions.
Miranda is coming off a spectacular first-round submission victory over Shane Young at UFC 293, showcasing his lightning-fast submission skills. However, he will need to be cautious against Charriere, who has the knockout power to end the fight at any moment.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Morgan Charriere
Charriere is a dangerous striker with a well-rounded game. While he is known for his devastating knockout power, his striking is technical, and he has the ability to mix in kicks, punches, and knees to keep his opponents guessing. Charriere often controls the pace of his fights with forward pressure, forcing his opponents to fight on the back foot. Once he finds his rhythm, Charriere is relentless in his pursuit of the finish.
While Charriere is primarily a striker, he has shown proficiency in grappling as well, having secured three submission victories in his career. However, he will likely want to avoid engaging Miranda on the ground and instead keep the fight standing where he has the clear advantage.
Gabriel Miranda
Miranda is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with an exceptional submission game. His strategy in most fights revolves around getting the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. Whether it's through pulling guard, clinch takedowns, or even dropping to his back, Miranda is comfortable working from any position on the mat.
Miranda’s submission arsenal is diverse, and he is capable of finishing the fight with a variety of techniques, including rear-naked chokes, guillotine chokes, and armbars. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, he wastes no time in hunting for submissions. His ability to quickly transition between submission attempts makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone.
Recent Performances and Matchup Analysis
Morgan Charriere
Charriere has been on a tear recently, finishing three of his last four opponents by knockout. His most recent victory over Manolo Zecchini was a dominant performance, as he finished the fight in the first round with a barrage of strikes. Charriere has shown time and time again that he has the power and precision to end fights early, and he will likely look to do the same against Miranda.
In this matchup, Charriere’s striking is his greatest asset. If he can keep the fight standing, he has a clear path to victory. Charriere’s pressure and ability to land significant strikes will be crucial in this fight, as Miranda will undoubtedly try to close the distance and take the fight to the ground.
Gabriel Miranda
Miranda is coming off an impressive submission victory over Shane Young, where he secured a rear-naked choke in under a minute. This victory was a reminder of just how dangerous Miranda is once the fight hits the ground. However, Miranda’s striking remains a weakness, and he has struggled in fights where he has been unable to implement his grappling game.
In this matchup, Miranda’s key to victory is getting Charriere to the ground. He will need to close the distance, either through clinch work or takedowns, and avoid getting caught by Charriere’s powerful strikes. Once on the ground, Miranda has the ability to finish the fight quickly with his world-class submission skills.
Keys to Victory
Morgan Charriere
- Keep the Fight Standing: Charriere’s striking is far superior to Miranda’s, and he will need to avoid getting taken down at all costs.
- Pressure Early: Charriere should look to push the pace and force Miranda to fight on the back foot. This will limit Miranda’s ability to shoot for takedowns and allow Charriere to dictate the fight.
- Look for the Knockout: With 11 knockouts on his record, Charriere has the power to end the fight at any moment. He should look to land big shots early and often to secure a finish.
Gabriel Miranda
- Take the Fight to the Ground: Miranda’s path to victory lies in his submission game. He needs to close the distance and get Charriere to the ground, where he can work his grappling magic.
- Avoid Striking Exchanges: Miranda cannot afford to engage in prolonged striking exchanges with Charriere, as he will likely get outclassed on the feet.
- Capitalize on Ground Opportunities: Once the fight is on the ground, Miranda must remain aggressive and look for submissions as soon as possible.
Prediction
Morgan Charriere’s striking power and forward pressure make him the favorite in this matchup. While Gabriel Miranda is dangerous on the ground, Charriere’s ability to keep the fight standing and land heavy shots will likely overwhelm the Brazilian submission specialist. If Charriere can avoid getting taken down, he has the tools to finish the fight with strikes.
Pick: Morgan Charriere to win by KO/TKO, DQ, or Submission.
Kingpin PRO
Follow ranked bettors with tracked cards
This article is free analysis. PRO unlocks today’s verified bettor inventory and alerts.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Methodology and disclosure
Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.
Kingpin PRO
Continue with Kingpin PRO
Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Simulated results for entertainment. Gambling involves risk. Bet only where legal.