NBA Playoff Picks: April 23-24, 2025

The 2025 NBA postseason is heating up with pivotal matchups on tap for April 23 and 24. Wednesday’s slate features three Game 2 showdowns where higher seeds aim to extend their series leads, while underdogs look to pull even. Thursday brings a trio of Game 3s that could swing momentum as teams fight to take control of tied series or avoid falling into insurmountable holes. Below we break down each matchup with a preview of the key storylines, the latest betting odds, and our best bets and top player props for each game.

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Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (Game 2 – BOS leads 1-0)

Boston took Game 1 comfortably, leveraging their playoff experience and home-court advantage. Jayson Tatum dropped 33 points to lead the Celtics, and Boston’s defense stifled the young Magic in a 112-99 win. This is Orlando’s first playoff appearance since 2020, and their youth showed in the opener with a flurry of early turnovers. The Magic will look to rookie of the year Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to be more aggressive in Game 2, but they face a tall task in TD Garden – the Celtics were 28-13 at home during the regular season and rarely lose there in the playoffs. Orlando averaged just 105.2 points on the road this year, so they’ll need to find extra offense to keep up.

Odds: Celtics -9.5 (favorites); Over/Under 223.5 points. Boston is a hefty home favorite and showed why in Game 1. The young Magic went 19-22 on the road in the regular season, and Boston’s dominant home record makes the Celtics the clear side to back if they maintain focus.

Best Bet – Celtics -9.5: Boston’s firepower and defense should overwhelm Orlando again. The Celtics have covered large spreads consistently at home, and they’ve beaten the Magic by double-digits in four of their last five meetings in Boston. With Tatum and Jaylen Brown rolling, lay the points with the Celtics to cruise and go up 2-0.

Player Prop – Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points: Tatum is the offensive engine for Boston and tends to shine under the home playoff lights. He scored 30+ in Game 1 and is averaging just over 30 PPG in his last five playoff home games. Facing a Magic defense short on wing stoppers, Tatum should be primed to eclipse 30 points again, especially if Orlando keeps it competitive into the second half.

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Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 2 – CLE leads 1-0)

The Cavaliers defended home court in Game 1 with a gritty 104-98 win, using their elite defense to contain Jimmy Butler and the Heat. Cleveland’s towering frontline of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen controlled the paint, and Donovan Mitchell poured in 28 points to give the Cavs a 1-0 series edge. Miami will try to bounce back in Game 2 by sharpening their offense – the Heat shot under 30% from three in the opener and got a quiet night from Tyler Herro. Playoff Jimmy Butler is known to elevate his game after a loss, and Miami’s veteran group has shown resilience on the road before (they went 7-6 in road games during last year’s playoffs as an underdog). Still, the Cavs were one of the NBA’s best home teams (26-15 at home in the regular season) and will be eager to protect home court again before the series shifts to South Beach.

Odds: Cavaliers -5.0; Over/Under 210.5 points. Cleveland is favored by about two possessions at home in what’s expected to be a defensive, lower-scoring game. The Cavs allowed the fewest points per game in the league during the season, and Miami is no stranger to grinding, low-total games.

Best Bet – Under 210.5: This has the makings of another half-court slugfest. Cleveland plays at one of the slowest paces and led the NBA in defensive rating, while Miami is an experienced defensive unit but often inconsistent scoring. In Game 1 the teams combined for just 202 points. With playoff intensity ratcheted up and both sides comfortable in a slower tempo, the under is the best play again in Game 2.

Player Prop – Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points: Mitchell is the Cavs’ offensive star and has a track record of big playoff scoring nights. He averaged 28.3 PPG in the first round last postseason and dropped 38 in Cleveland’s home playoff opener last year. Against a Heat defense that will key on slowing Cleveland’s bigs, look for Mitchell to take on a heavy scoring load. Over 29.5 points is attainable if this game stays tight, with Mitchell likely putting up 20+ shot attempts and plenty of trips to the foul line.

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Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Game 2 – GS leads 1-0)

This series pits the battle-tested Warriors against a hungry young Rockets squad in their first postseason in years. Golden State stole Game 1 on the road 120-114, thanks to a vintage Stephen Curry performance (37 points with seven three-pointers) and a flurry of late-game stops. Houston will be desperate to avoid falling behind 2-0 on their home floor. The Rockets had a fantastic turnaround season – they won 52 games and even clinched the Southwest Division title for the first time since 2020, riding an improved defense under coach Ime Udoka and the leadership of veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. Still, Houston’s youth showed in crunch time of Game 1, and they’ll need Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün to step up and support leading scorer Kevin Porter Jr. (who had 25 in Game 1) to even the series. The Warriors, for their part, know the importance of Game 2; a split sends the series back to San Francisco tied, but a win puts them firmly in control. Golden State’s championship core has a wealth of experience in these situations, while the Rockets were 29-12 at home this season and won’t go quietly in front of what should be a raucous Toyota Center crowd.

Odds: Rockets -1.5; Over/Under 232.5 points. Despite the Game 1 result, Houston is a slight favorite in Game 2, reflecting their strong home record and bounce-back urgency. The total is the highest of the day, as both teams can light up the scoreboard when the pace picks up and three-pointers start falling.

Best Bet – Over 232.5: Expect an uptick in offense in Game 2. The Rockets play much faster at home and will push the tempo to exploit any age and speed mismatch against Golden State. Meanwhile, the Warriors are lethal in transition and should continue to get open looks from deep against Houston’s still-developing defense. The over has hit in 6 of Golden State’s last 8 road games, and this matchup has shootout potential written all over it – back the over on the high total.

Player Prop – Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Threes Made: In a high-total game, it’s hard not to like Curry’s three-point prop. He hit 7 treys in Game 1 and is attempting double-digit threes per game this series. Houston’s perimeter defense struggled to track him around screens, and on a quick turnaround they may not solve it immediately. Count on Curry to splash 5+ triples once again as the Warriors look to build an early lead.

(If your book offers Curry’s points instead, over 29.5 points is another solid play given how involved he is in every scoring opportunity.)

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Thursday, April 24, 2025

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons (Game 3 – Series tied 1-1)

This 3-versus-6 matchup has gotten interesting after the upstart Pistons shocked the Knicks in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden. The series is tied 1-1 as it shifts to Detroit – marking the Pistons’ first home playoff game since 2019and a triumphant return for a franchise that won just 17 games two seasons ago. Detroit’s turnaround has been remarkable: they finished 44-38 this season, securing the 6th seed in the East behind their young core and new coach Monty Williams. In Game 2, former No.1 pick Cade Cunningham exploded for 33 points to lead Detroit to a 100-94 upset win, while defensive ace Jaden Ivey and center Jalen Duren helped hold the Knicks to just 40% shooting. New York took Game 1 (123-112) behind big nights from Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle, but Game 2 saw Randle struggle and the Knicks offense stagnate late. Now the pressure is on New York to reclaim home-court advantage in a hostile environment. The Knicks were a solid 20-21 on the road during the season and have the playoff experience edge, but the young Pistons have momentum and a loud Motor City crowd on their side.

Odds: Knicks -3.5; Over/Under 216.5 points. Despite the Game 2 loss, New York is a modest road favorite, reflecting their higher seed and overall talent edge. The total is relatively low as neither team plays very fast and both coaches emphasize defense and half-court execution.

Best Bet – Knicks -3.5: Expect New York to respond. Tom Thibodeau’s squad is battle-tested and won’t panic after dropping a game. The Knicks were 26-15 at home this year but also respectable on the road, and they’ve covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games following a loss. Look for adjustments like getting Randle going early and tightening up on Cunningham. Detroit’s young roster might feel some jitters in their first home playoff game, and if the Knicks can weather the early energy, their superior depth and star power (Brunson and Randle) should prevail. Give the slight edge and cover to the Knicks in a close one, pulling ahead with free throws late.

Player Prop – Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points: Brunson has become New York’s most reliable scorer and closer. He averaged 27.8 PPG in the first round of last year’s playoffs and put up 29 points in Game 1 of this series. Detroit’s backcourt defense is talented but inexperienced; Brunson’s crafty footwork and mid-range game have been a problem for them. In a crucial Game 3, expect Brunson to assert himself with 20+ shots. Over 25.5 points is within reach as he shoulders the scoring load to try to silence the Pistons crowd.

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (Game 3 – OKC leads 2-0)

The Thunder have been the story of the playoffs so far, absolutely dominating the first two games of this series. Oklahoma City leads 2-0 after back-to-back home blowouts, including a 131-80 dismantling of Memphis in Game 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been sensational (averaging Thirty-plus points and flirting with triple-doubles), and versatile guard Josh Giddey has been stuffing the stat sheet as well. OKC’s young roster, which surprisingly won 68 games to earn the West’s #1 seed, is playing with confidence beyond their years. Now they hit the road, where they were an impressive 32-9 during the regular season, to try for a commanding 3-0 lead. For the Grizzlies, it’s desperation time. The #8 seed Grizzlies have been punched in the mouth – their offense sputtered in OKC, failing to crack 100 points in either game, and their usually stout defense had no answers for the Thunder’s dribble penetration and kick-out threes. Ja Morant will need to produce some fireworks at home to keep Memphis alive; he’s averaging just 22 PPG so far, well below his usual playoff output. The Grizzlies also sorely miss the interior presence of Steven Adams (out with a knee injury) and Brandon Clarke, as they’ve been crushed on the boards. That said, Memphis has been a strong home team in recent seasons and will feed off the FedExForum crowd to try and claw back into the series.

Odds: Grizzlies -1.5; Over/Under 225.5 points. Despite OKC’s dominance, oddsmakers have installed Memphis as a slight favorite at home, essentially a bet on pride and urgency from the Grizz. The total suggests a moderate scoring game – higher than the first two games’ outcomes – possibly expecting Memphis to shoot better at home and OKC’s offense to remain potent.

Best Bet – Grizzlies -1.5: It’s now or never for Memphis. Teams down 0-2 returning home often play with extra fire, and we expect the Grizzlies to at least put forth a strong effort and potentially steal Game 3. They went 31-10 at home in the regular season last year and know how to protect their turf. Meanwhile, the Thunder might experience a bit of a let-up after two easy wins and coming into a hostile arena. This is more of a situational play – the Grizzlies’ backs are against the wall. Take Memphis -1.5 to come out swinging and ride an inspired performance from Ja Morant to narrow the series deficit to 2-1.

Player Prop – Ja Morant Over 29.5 Points: If Memphis is going to make this a series, Ja Morant will likely be the reason. The explosive point guard should be ultra-aggressive from the opening tip in Game 3. Morant averaged 27.4 PPG in the playoffs last year and tends to thrive in high-pressure, up-tempo games at home. With the Grizzlies needing a spark, look for Ja to score 30+ by relentlessly attacking the rim and even dialing up a few three-pointers. He knows everything is on the line – expect a superstar response.

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Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers (Game 3 – Series tied 1-1)

The defending champion Nuggets find themselves in a battle as this series shifts to L.A. It’s tied 1-1 after the Clippers managed a huge upset in Game 2, winning 105-102 in Denver to steal home-court advantage. That snapped Denver’s 8-game home playoff winning streak and underscored how dangerous the Clippers can be when healthy. Kawhi Leonard was masterful in the Game 2 victory, dropping Thirty points and locking down defensively in crunch time, while Paul George hit a clutch three in the final minute. For Denver, Nikola Jokić has been his usual self – near triple-doubles in both games – but the Nuggets role players went cold in Game 2 (Michael Porter Jr. shot just 4-15, and the bench contributed little). Now the Nuggets head to Crypto.com Arena looking to regain control. They were a decent 24-17 on the road this year, but playing the Clippers on the road in the playoffs is a different beast, especially if Kawhi and PG13 are in the lineup. Los Angeles was 50-32 in the regular season (5th in West), and after years of injury woes, they appear to have their stars available and in sync. Keep an eye on Denver’s Jamal Murray, who traditionally elevates his scoring on the road – he had a quiet Game 2 (18 points) and will look to bounce back. Another subplot: the chess match between coaches Michael Malone and Tyronn Lue, both championship-winning coaches who will make adjustments as the series progresses.

Odds: Nuggets -2.0; Over/Under 219.5 points. Despite losing the last game, Denver is a slight road favorite, indicating that on paper they are still viewed as the better team. The total is relatively low, reflecting two solid defensive squads and the slower pace the Clippers often prefer, especially at home.

Best Bet – Under 219.5: This series has been defense-oriented through two games (totals of 210 and 207 points). The Clippers have the ability to disrupt Denver’s flow, as we saw in Game 2, and they will likely deploy similar tactics at home – slowing the game down, throwing double-teams at Jokic, and forcing the Nuggets to burn clock. On the other side, Denver knows its path to win on the road is by getting key stops on Kawhi and contesting every shot to keep the crowd from getting into it. With both teams emphasizing defensive intensity in a pivotal Game 3, the under is the prudent play again. It wouldn’t surprise us to see another tight game in the low 100s.

Player Prop – Nikola Jokić Over 9.5 Assists: The two-time MVP is the fulcrum of Denver’s offense, and when opponents sell out to slow his scoring, he becomes a pass-first maestro. Jokić led the league in assists per game this season and is averaging double-digit dimes in this series so far. The Clippers will continue to throw aggressive doubles at him to get the ball out of his hands, and Jokic will continue making the right play, finding open shooters like Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon cutting to the hoop. In a hostile environment, Denver will lean on Jokic’s playmaking even more. Back the over 9.5 assists for the Joker – he could hit double-digit assists by the third quarter if the Clippers trap him as expected.

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Enjoy the games! These playoff matchups should bring high-level basketball and plenty of drama. As always, shop around for the best odds and monitor any last-minute injury news (lineups can change). Good luck with your wagers and props, and relish what should be an exciting couple of nights of NBA playoff action.

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