Secondary lean: Under 43.5 (2/5)

Why: New England openers in Foxborough routinely lean field-position and mistake avoidance. The Raiders’ pass pro has struggled on long yardage; NE’s simulated pressures force checkdowns and third-and-long punts. If the Pats win hidden yardage (punts/returns) and turnover margin, a field-goal cover is highly live.

Why: Atlanta’s motion+gap concepts can blunt TB’s aggressive front, while the dome noise aids Falcons’ pass rush on money downs. If ATL limits explosives and forces Tampa into 10+ play drives, the advantage swings to the home side.

Total lean: Under 48.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Divisional familiarity compresses margins. Cleveland’s front can disturb CIN’s early-down rhythm and keep this within a field goal. Catching +5.5 in a rivalry spot is valuable in a lower-variance script.

Total lean: Over 46.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Miami’s speed stresses single-high looks and creates YAC. Indoors magnifies that edge. If the Fins are clean on early downs, their pace and explosive rate tilt this toward a road win.

Total lean: Under 43.5 (2/5)

Why: ARI’s red-zone efficiency and QB mobility raise their floor; NO likely needs short fields to keep pace. With a lead, Cards can squeeze tempo and protect the number.

Side lean: Steelers -2.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Two elite pass rushes + conservative red-zone tendencies = stalled drives and a punt-heavy script. Success-rate profiles point under absent defensive scores.

Total lean: Under 45.5 (2/5)

Why: NFC East familiarity compresses variance. NYG’s defense typically caps explosives and forces long drives. Nearly a TD is attractive in a modest-total environment.

Why: JAX’s scripted openers and red-zone efficiency are strong edges vs a rebuilding offense. If the Jags’ front wins early downs, they’ll control pace and field position.

Total lean: Under 42.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Altitude helps Denver, but their offense hasn’t profiled as a margin team. A slow Titans tempo + physical defense keeps this inside one score often.

Total lean: Under 42.5 (2/5)

Why: SF’s front neutralizes run games and forces late-in-down throws; their motion/spacing on offense creates layups and yards after catch. Higher floor, better trench edge.

Total lean: Over 47.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Detroit’s OL/DL travel and win early downs; short passing + power run mix can mute Lambeau’s edge. Both offenses own explosive upside → slight Over correlation.

Total lean: Under 43.5 (2/5)

Why: Houston’s balance and disciplined defense travel. The hook matters in what sets up as a late one-score game; field position favors the dog if they avoid negative plays.

Total lean: Over 50.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Elite vs. elite. Buffalo’s home field plus their ability to answer scores keeps them live. If the Bills contain QB run explosives and get to 3rd-and-6+, their third-down package swings the edge.

Total lean: Under 43.5 (2.5/5)

Why: Home divisional dog in a likely slower script. Chicago’s defense can create 3rd-and-long; if the Bears are average on third down offensively, the outright is live.