© Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

 

Over/Under Betting Preview: Murray State Racers vs. Missouri Tigers NCAAF Picks 

The 2024 college football season features a matchup between the Murray State Racers and the Missouri Tigers on Thursday, August 29, 2024. The game will take place at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, with a 5:00 PM EST kickoff. Missouri enters this matchup as a heavy favorite against an FCS opponent in Murray State, and the over/under for this game is set at 55.5 points. In this article, we’ll dive into the factors that could influence whether this game goes over or under the total, ultimately making the case for betting the over.

 

Game Information

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
• Time: 5:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: SEC Network
• Line: Missouri -47.5
• Over/Under: 55.5 points

Murray State Racers: Offense Looking to Keep Pace

The Murray State Racers enter the 2024 season coming off a challenging 2023 campaign in which they finished with a 2-9 record. Under Head Coach Dean Hood, now in his fourth season, the Racers are looking to bounce back and show improvement on both sides of the ball. Facing an SEC opponent like Missouri presents a significant challenge, but the Racers have the offensive potential to contribute to a high-scoring affair.

Offensively, the Racers are led by quarterback DJ Williams, who threw for 2,104 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. Williams is a dual-threat quarterback with the ability to extend plays with his legs, which could help Murray State move the ball against Missouri’s defense. The running game is anchored by Damonta Witherspoon, who rushed for 824 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2023. Witherspoon is a versatile back who can catch passes out of the backfield, adding another dimension to the Racers’ offense.

The receiving corps features wide receiver Taylor Shields, who caught 58 passes for 712 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. Shields is a reliable target with good speed and the ability to make plays downfield, making him a key weapon for Williams in the passing game. Tight end Jacob Bell provides another option, particularly in short-yardage situations and the red zone. The offensive line, which returns four starters, will need to protect Williams and create running lanes against a Missouri front that is bigger and faster than what Murray State typically faces.

Murray State’s offense averaged 22.3 points per game in 2023, but they will need to score significantly more to keep pace with Missouri. The Racers have shown flashes of potential on offense, particularly in games against FCS opponents, and they will look to exploit any weaknesses in Missouri’s defense. If Murray State can sustain drives and avoid turnovers, they have the potential to contribute to a higher-scoring game.

Missouri Tigers: High-Powered Offense Ready to Roll

The Missouri Tigers are coming off a 7-6 season in 2023, including a 3-5 record in SEC play. Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz, now in his fifth season with the Tigers, has developed a dynamic offense that can put up points in a hurry. Missouri enters this matchup as a heavy favorite, and they will be looking to start the season with a dominant offensive performance against an FCS opponent in Murray State.

Missouri’s offense is led by quarterback Brady Cook, who threw for 3,243 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. Cook is an accurate passer with a quick release, and he is capable of making plays both in the pocket and on the move. The running game is powered by Cody Schrader, who rushed for 1,088 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023. Schrader is a physical back with good vision and the ability to break tackles, making him a key part of Missouri’s offensive attack.

The Tigers’ receiving corps features wide receiver Luther Burden III, a standout sophomore who caught 72 passes for 1,032 yards and 9 touchdowns last season. Burden’s speed and ability to make plays after the catch make him a dangerous target, particularly in the open field. Tight end Brett Norfleet provides another big target for Cook, especially in the red zone. The offensive line, which is anchored by All-SEC guard Javon Foster, is a veteran group that excels in both pass protection and run blocking.

Missouri’s offense averaged 31.4 points per game in 2023, ranking in the top half of the SEC. The Tigers are known for their up-tempo style and ability to score quickly, which could lead to a high-scoring game against Murray State. Defensively, Missouri allowed 25.8 points per game last season, and while they are expected to improve, they may still give up some points, particularly in garbage time. Missouri’s ability to generate big plays on offense and control the tempo will be key factors in driving the game over the total.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Murray State Racers

• Offensive Efficiency: Murray State ranked 81st among FCS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Racers averaged 5.2 yards per play and were moderately effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 54% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Racers ranked 89th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 409.5 yards per game. Their defense struggled against both the run and the pass, and their inability to get off the field on third downs was a major issue.
• Turnover Margin: Murray State finished the 2023 season with a -5 turnover margin, ranking 72nd among FCS teams. The Racers struggled with ball security and creating takeaways, which contributed to their losses.

Missouri Tigers

• Offensive Efficiency: Missouri ranked 38th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Tigers averaged 6.3 yards per play and excelled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 67% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Missouri ranked 54th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 378.2 yards per game. The Tigers’ defense was particularly vulnerable against the pass, giving up 240.3 passing yards per game.
• Red Zone Performance: Missouri scored touchdowns on 65% of their red zone trips, while their defense allowed touchdowns on 59% of opponents' red zone opportunities, ranking near the middle of the SEC.

Coaching Analysis

Dean Hood (Murray State)

Dean Hood is in his fourth season as the head coach of the Murray State Racers. Hood, a former defensive coordinator and head coach at Eastern Kentucky, has focused on building a disciplined team that can compete in the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). Hood’s offensive philosophy emphasizes running the football and controlling the clock, while his defense is built around aggressive play and creating turnovers.

Defensively, Hood has focused on improving tackling and creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the Racers have struggled to consistently execute. In this matchup, Hood will need his team to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to keep the game close against Missouri. The Racers will need to capitalize on their opportunities and play a near-perfect game to compete against the Tigers, particularly in a high-scoring contest.

Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)

Eli Drinkwitz is entering his fifth season as the head coach of the Missouri Tigers. Drinkwitz, known for his offensive expertise, has developed a high-scoring, up-tempo offense that can exploit mismatches in the defense. Under Drinkwitz’s leadership, Missouri has been known for their ability to score quickly and put pressure on opposing defenses.

Drinkwitz’s offensive philosophy is based on a spread attack that looks to stretch the field and create big plays. His teams are known for their ability to score quickly and often, and they have consistently ranked among the top teams in the SEC in terms of offensive production. Defensively, Drinkwitz emphasizes aggression and creating turnovers, with a focus on stopping the run and forcing teams into predictable passing situations. In this matchup, Drinkwitz will look to use his team’s speed, depth, and playmaking ability to overwhelm Murray State and drive the game over the total.

Recent Performance

Murray State Racers

Murray State finished the 2023 season with a 2-9 record, including a 1-6 mark in OVC play. The Racers struggled on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense, where they allowed an average of 34.2 points per game. Murray State’s season was highlighted by a 28-24 victory over Tennessee Tech, in which DJ Williams threw for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Racers also recorded a 31-27 win over Eastern Illinois, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Murray State lost to Southeast Missouri State 38-21. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Racers struggled to contain Southeast Missouri’s balanced offensive attack. Despite the loss, Murray State has shown they can compete against similar-level opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season.

Missouri Tigers

Missouri ended the 2023 season with a 7-6 record, including a 3-5 mark in SEC play. The Tigers’ season was highlighted by a 42-24 victory over South Carolina, in which their offense exploded for 521 total yards. Missouri also recorded a 34-27 win over Vanderbilt, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories. However, the Tigers also suffered some tough losses, including a 41-14 defeat to Georgia and a 38-31 loss to Kentucky.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Missouri lost to Iowa 27-24 in the Music City Bowl. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Tigers struggled to contain Iowa’s passing attack. Brady Cook threw for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Missouri was unable to overcome their defensive struggles. Despite the loss, the Tigers’ offense remains one of the most explosive in the SEC, and they will look to start the 2024 season with a statement win.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first-ever meeting between Murray State and Missouri, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Missouri, as an SEC program, enters the game as a heavy favorite against an FCS opponent in Murray State. The key to this game will likely be Missouri’s ability to exploit their advantages in speed, size, and depth, particularly on offense. If the Tigers can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and push the game over the total.

Murray State’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Missouri. The Racers will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to keep the game within reach. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, Murray State has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their offensive playmakers could help contribute to a higher-scoring game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Murray State Racers: The Racers have hit the over in 6 of their last 8 games against FBS opponents. They have been able to score points, particularly in garbage time, which has helped push games over the total.
• Missouri Tigers: The Tigers have hit the over in 7 of their last 10 games as favorites. They have consistently put up points, particularly against non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Murray State and Missouri, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, provides a familiar environment for the Missouri Tigers. The weather forecast for August 29th calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Midwest. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Missouri.

The home-field advantage of Memorial Stadium, coupled with the experienced leadership of Eli Drinkwitz, will be a factor in favor of Missouri. The Tigers have a strong record in season openers under Drinkwitz, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Murray State. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from smaller programs like Murray State.

Prediction