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North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction NCAAB First Four 03/18
North Carolina vs. San Diego State: Betting Analysis & Prediction
Game Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the San Diego State Aztecs in the **First Four** of the NCAA Tournament on March 18, 2025, at **UD Arena in Dayton, OH**. Both teams are battling for a spot in the **South Region** bracket, with North Carolina coming in as a slight favorite at **-4.5**.
The Tar Heels finished the season strong, winning three of their last five games, including a dominant **91-59** road win over Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the Aztecs struggled down the stretch, losing to Boise State in their conference tournament opener.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | -4.5 (-115) | Over 142.5 (-110) | -200 |
| San Diego State | +4.5 (-105) | Under 142.5 (-110) | +170 |
North Carolina enters as a **4.5-point favorite**, with the total set at **142.5 points**. The Tar Heels have been a solid team against strong competition, while San Diego State has struggled against top-tier opponents.
Team Comparison
North Carolina Tar Heels
Led by **RJ Davis (17.0 PPG, 40.9 FG%)**, North Carolina boasts an explosive offense that averages **77.8 points per game**. Freshman **Elliot Cadeau** has emerged as a strong playmaker, averaging **6.0 assists per game**. The Tar Heels also dominate the glass, ranking **top 50 in the country in rebounding**.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State leans on **Nathan Boyd (13.4 PPG, 4.0 APG)** to lead their offense. However, their scoring struggles have been evident, averaging just **69.8 points per game**. Their defense is solid, allowing only **66.3 PPG**, but they lack the offensive firepower to keep up with North Carolina.
Recent Performance
North Carolina’s Last Five Games
- Loss – vs Duke (74-71)
- Win – vs Wake Forest (68-59)
- Win – vs Notre Dame (76-56)
- Loss – vs Duke (82-69)
- Win – @ Virginia Tech (91-59)
San Diego State’s Last Five Games
- Loss – vs Boise State (62-52)
- Win – vs Nevada (80-61)
- Loss – @ UNLV (74-67)
- Win – @ Wyoming (72-69)
- Win – vs New Mexico (73-65)
Prediction
North Carolina’s **offensive depth, rebounding advantage, and strength of schedule** give them the clear edge in this matchup. While San Diego State plays solid defense, their inconsistent offense will struggle to keep up with the Tar Heels’ pace.
With RJ Davis leading the way and a strong supporting cast, North Carolina should be able to **cover the -4.5 spread** and move on to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5 (-115)
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