UFC Best Bets - August 29, 2026

UFC best bets for August 29, 2026. This card covers all 13 scheduled games and ranks the bets from strongest to weakest. The order matters: the first plays have the best mix of price and current win probability.

Use the listed sportsbook price as the target. A worse line can wipe out the value, especially on favorites and alternate spreads. Odds move throughout the day, so compare books before placing anything.

UFC best bets ranked

1. #1 Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas: Nilson Rojas at +430
2. #2 Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov: Song Yadong at +400
3. #3 Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya: Kevin Borjas at +460
4. #4 Kai Asakura vs Aori Qileng: Aori Qileng at +330
5. #5 Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins: Jack Jenkins at +135
6. #6 Su Mudaerji vs Alex Perez: Alex Perez at +180
7. #7 Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago: Hector Santiago at +260
8. #8 Meng Ding vs Cameron Nelson: Meng Ding at -105
9. #9 Francesco Nuzzi vs Long Xiao: Francesco Nuzzi at +155
10. #10 Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan: Denise Gomes at +135
11. #11 Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar: Namsrai Batbayar at +205
12. #12 Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues: Levi Rodrigues at +160
13. #13 Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong: Jingnan Xiong at +180

#1 Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas

Best bet: Nilson Rojas (+430) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #1

Nilson Rojas is available at +430 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 19.4% compared with a 18.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Nilson Rojas at +430 (Caesars) — 19.4% market win probability vs 18.9% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#2 Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Best bet: Song Yadong (+400) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #2

Song Yadong is available at +400 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 20.1% compared with a 20% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Song Yadong at +400 (Caesars) — 20.1% market win probability vs 20% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#3 Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya

Best bet: Kevin Borjas (+460) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #3

Kevin Borjas is available at +460 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 17.9% compared with a 17.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Kevin Borjas at +460 (Caesars) — 17.9% market win probability vs 17.9% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#4 Kai Asakura vs Aori Qileng

Best bet: Aori Qileng (+330) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #4

Aori Qileng is available at +330 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 23.1% compared with a 23.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Aori Qileng at +330 (BetOnline) — 23.1% market win probability vs 23.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#5 Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins

Best bet: Jack Jenkins (+135) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #5

Jack Jenkins is available at +135 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 42.2% compared with a 42.6% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jack Jenkins at +135 (BetOnline) — 42.2% market win probability vs 42.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#6 Su Mudaerji vs Alex Perez

Best bet: Alex Perez (+180) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #6

Alex Perez is available at +180 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 35.4% compared with a 35.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Alex Perez at +180 (BetOnline) — 35.4% market win probability vs 35.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#7 Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago

Best bet: Hector Santiago (+260) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #7

Hector Santiago is available at +260 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 27.3% compared with a 27.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Hector Santiago at +260 (Caesars) — 27.3% market win probability vs 27.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#8 Meng Ding vs Cameron Nelson

Best bet: Meng Ding (-105) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #8

Meng Ding is available at -105 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 50.4% compared with a 51.2% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Meng Ding at -105 (Caesars) — 50.4% market win probability vs 51.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#9 Francesco Nuzzi vs Long Xiao

Best bet: Francesco Nuzzi (+155) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #9

Francesco Nuzzi is available at +155 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 38.4% compared with a 39.2% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Francesco Nuzzi at +155 (BetOnline) — 38.4% market win probability vs 39.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#10 Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan

Best bet: Denise Gomes (+135) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #10

Denise Gomes is available at +135 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 41.7% compared with a 42.6% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Denise Gomes at +135 (BetOnline) — 41.7% market win probability vs 42.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#11 Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar

Best bet: Namsrai Batbayar (+205) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #11

Namsrai Batbayar is available at +205 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 32.1% compared with a 32.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Namsrai Batbayar at +205 (Caesars) — 32.1% market win probability vs 32.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#12 Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues

Best bet: Levi Rodrigues (+160) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #12

Levi Rodrigues is available at +160 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.5% compared with a 38.5% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Levi Rodrigues at +160 (BetOnline) — 37.5% market win probability vs 38.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#13 Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong

Best bet: Jingnan Xiong (+180) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #13

Jingnan Xiong is available at +180 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 34.6% compared with a 35.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jingnan Xiong at +180 (Caesars) — 34.6% market win probability vs 35.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

Final UFC betting card

The list above is already ordered from best to worst. Start at the top, demand the listed price, and skip any play after a bad line move. Smaller edges belong lower on the card and should not be treated like the top bet.

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Bet only what you can afford to lose. Odds and lineups can change.