Anastasia Potapova vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction, Odds & Best Bet - September 7, 2026

Anastasia Potapova moneyline +540 is the play because the price gives her a slightly lower break-even requirement than her projected chance of winning. The market break-even rate is 15.6%, while the supplied projection is 16.5%. That difference is only 0.9%, with expected value per unit listed at 0.059, so the argument is narrow and highly dependent on retaining the quoted number.

Potapova has also earned her place in Round 4 with three wins. She opened by beating Darja Semenistaja 6-2, 6-2, survived Leolia Jeanjean 6-4, 2-6, 6-3, and then defeated No. 10 Amanda Anisimova 6-2, 7-5. The Anisimova result is the most important support for the underdog case because Potapova controlled the opening set and closed a competitive second set without needing a decider.

This is not a prediction that Potapova wins most of the time. Andreeva's results and -675 moneyline establish her as the clear favorite. Potapova +540 is attractive only because an upset does not need to be likely; it needs to occur more often than the listed 15.6% break-even rate.

Potapova, 25, is a 5' 9" right-handed player in her 11th season. Her path through New York has included both comfortable and demanding matches. She lost only four games to Semenistaja, but Jeanjean pushed her into a third set after Potapova dropped the second 2-6. Potapova then responded by taking the deciding set 6-3.

That response matters for an underdog moneyline because Potapova may have to withstand a period in which Andreeva controls the return games or earns the first break. Potapova has already experienced that kind of momentum change in this tournament and still advanced. Her follow-up win over Anisimova was cleaner: 6-2, 7-5 in straight sets.

The challenge is turning those results into enough pressure against Andreeva's serve. Potapova cannot rely on merely keeping sets respectable because the featured selection requires her to win the match. She needs break-point opportunities and must prevent one lost service game from becoming a rapid sequence of games for Andreeva.

Andreeva, 19, is also 5' 9" and right-handed, with four seasons of experience. Her first three US Open results explain the heavy favorite price. She beat Janice Tjen 6-2, 6-2, overwhelmed Eva Lys 6-0, 6-2, and defeated Nikola Bartunkova 6-2, 7-6 (7-5). Andreeva has therefore reached Round 4 without dropping a set.

The 6-0, 6-2 score against Lys is the clearest warning for Potapova backers. If Andreeva begins reading the serve early and consistently controls return points, the match can move beyond the underdog quickly. Andreeva also handled a different test against Bartunkova, winning a second-set tiebreak 7-5 rather than allowing the match to reach a third set.

Those results make Andreeva the deserved favorite, and the broader market agrees: -675 on the moneyline and -5.5 games at -112. The concern is price rather than performance. Backing Andreeva at -675 requires accepting a much larger outlay, while Potapova's number compensates for the clear difference in their routes to Round 4.

The decisive matchup is Potapova's serve and first return opportunity against Andreeva's ability to establish early control. Andreeva has taken the opening set 6-2 in all three listed matches. Potapova has also started well, winning her opening sets 6-2, 6-4, and 6-2, so both players arrive with a record of taking immediate command.

For Potapova +540 to cash, she likely needs to stop Andreeva from creating the familiar 6-2 opening pattern. A competitive first set would make the upset path more realistic by increasing the importance of a small number of break points or a possible tiebreak. Potapova's 7-5 second set against Anisimova shows that she can close a tight set, while Andreeva's 7-6 (7-5) second set against Bartunkova shows that the favorite can do the same.

The market total of 19.5 reinforces the importance of extending sets. A one-sided match can finish below that number with Andreeva in control. Potapova needs sustained service holds, productive returns, and at least one stretch in which she forces Andreeva to play from behind.

The market hierarchy is unambiguous. Andreeva is -675 on the moneyline, Potapova is +540, Andreeva is -5.5 games at -112, and Potapova is +5.5 at -105. The total is 19.5, with Over -105 and Under +100. Those numbers describe a match expected to be controlled by Andreeva and potentially completed without a long deciding set.

Kingpin Editorial does not dispute Andreeva's status as the stronger favorite. The disagreement is limited to the degree of that advantage. Potapova's 16.5% projected probability is only 0.9% above the 15.6% break-even rate attached to +540. With Low confidence and no bettor consensus supporting the selection, this is a measured price play rather than a forceful stand against Andreeva.

A materially worse price on Anastasia Potapova would change the decision because the current case depends on +540. The projected advantage is only 0.9%, so shortening Potapova's moneyline would raise her break-even requirement and could erase the reason to accept the upset risk.

The live match pattern could also invalidate the premise quickly. If Andreeva repeatedly attacks Potapova's serve, earns frequent break points, and reproduces the early separation seen in her three 6-2 opening sets, Potapova's path becomes much narrower. Conversely, Potapova holding serve consistently and pushing the opening set deep would preserve the logic behind taking the larger price.

Any retirement concern, schedule delay, or change affecting the playing surface for Potapova or Andreeva would also require a fresh assessment. The selection is based on this scheduled Round 4 matchup in New York and the quoted Anastasia Potapova +540 moneyline.