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Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins - Game Analysis and Prediction

The Ottawa Senators (14-13-2) will host the Pittsburgh Penguins (13-14-4) on December 14, 2024, at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario. Both teams are looking to build momentum as they aim to stay competitive in their respective divisions. Ottawa is coming off a convincing win against Anaheim, while Pittsburgh recently dominated Montreal. This marks the first game of their three-game season series.

 

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total (Over/Under)
Pittsburgh Penguins	+1.5 (-215)	+120	o6.5 (-105)
Ottawa Senators	-1.5 (+170)	-140	u6.5 (-115)

Ottawa is a slight home favorite at -140 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is listed at +120. The total is set at 6.5 goals, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring game.

Team Analysis

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins have struggled to find consistency this season, with a 13-14-4 record. They are 5-7-2 on the road and rank near the bottom of the league defensively, allowing 3.74 goals per game. Sidney Crosby remains their driving force offensively, leading the team with 30 points (8 goals, 22 assists). Rickard Rakell leads Pittsburgh in goals with 13, while their goaltending has been a glaring weakness with both Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry posting save percentages below .885.

• Offensive Strength: The Penguins average 3.03 goals per game, with a solid power-play conversion rate of 23.1%.
• Defensive Weakness: Pittsburgh struggles in goal prevention, surrendering the fifth-most goals in the league.
• Injury Report: Key forwards like Cody Glass and Kevin Hayes are on injured reserve, limiting their scoring depth.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators have been up and down this season but are solid at home with a 9-6-1 record. Ottawa boasts a more balanced lineup led by Tim Stützle, who has 36 points (10 goals, 26 assists), and captain Brady Tkachuk, who leads the team in goals with 14. Their power play has been a bright spot, converting at an impressive 27.6% rate, though they struggle on the penalty kill (75.6%). Goaltender Linus Ullmark provides stability in net, with a 2.70 goals-against average and a .909 save percentage.

• Offensive Potential: Ottawa averages 3.11 goals per game and generates strong shot volume at 31.0 shots per game.
• Defensive Foundation: The Senators allow just 3.07 goals per game, backed by Ullmark’s consistent goaltending.
• Injury Report: Depth concerns remain with injuries to Zack Ostapchuk and Artem Zub.

Recent Performance

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins are 3-2 in their last five games, showing flashes of offensive firepower but inconsistent defense:

• 12/12: Defeated Montreal 9-2
• 12/10: Lost to Colorado 6-2
• 12/7: Defeated Toronto 5-2
• 12/6: Lost to NY Rangers 4-2
• 12/3: Defeated Florida 5-4 (OT)

Ottawa Senators

The Senators are 3-2 in their last five games, highlighted by improved defense and goaltending:

• 12/11: Defeated Anaheim 5-1
• 12/8: Lost to NY Islanders 4-2
• 12/7: Defeated Nashville 3-1
• 12/5: Defeated Detroit 2-1
• 12/1: Lost to Anaheim 4-3 (SO)

Head-to-Head Comparison

This is the first meeting between Pittsburgh and Ottawa this season. Ottawa’s balanced offense and superior goaltending give them the edge, especially at home. Pittsburgh’s defensive lapses and inconsistent goaltending could be exploited by the Senators' efficient power play.

Betting Stats and Trends

Key trends for Pittsburgh:

• The Penguins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
• The total has gone over in four of Pittsburgh’s last six games.
• Pittsburgh is 1-6 in its last seven games against Ottawa.

Key trends for Ottawa:

• The Senators are 4-2 ATS in their last six home games.
• The total has gone under in three of Ottawa’s last five games.
• Ottawa is 5-2 in its last seven games overall.

Prediction