Game Preview

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Miami for a Thursday night clash against the Dolphins in what could be a defining moment for both struggling teams. Baltimore, despite sitting at 2–5, remains statistically strong — top 10 in total offense and rushing efficiency — but has suffered from costly turnovers and inconsistent defensive play. Miami, also underperforming at 2–6, comes off a morale-boosting 34–10 win over Atlanta and hopes to continue that momentum against Lamar Jackson and company.

The Ravens hold a 63% win probability according to ESPN Analytics, but that number might not reflect Miami’s home-field energy or their ability to strike deep through Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. Still, Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability remains the X-factor, and Derrick Henry’s bruising style could exploit Miami’s defense that’s giving up over 125 rushing yards per game.

Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Miami’s Secondary

Miami’s secondary is banged up with Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis both questionable, which could open up opportunities for Lamar Jackson to attack downfield. Jackson has been efficient this season — 10 TDs to just 1 INT — and continues to generate chunk plays on broken coverage. Expect offensive coordinator Todd Monken to dial up designed QB runs and play-action looks targeting Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.

On the other side, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 15 touchdowns but 10 interceptions — a worrisome trend when facing Baltimore’s blitz-heavy defense. The Ravens rank among the top five in pressure rate but are missing key defensive linemen like Madubuike and Robinson, potentially giving Tua more time in the pocket than usual.

Best Bets

• Ravens -7.5 (-115) Confidence 8/10 — Miami’s offensive line has been inconsistent, and Baltimore’s ground game should control the pace. The Ravens are 4–1 ATS after a straight-up win in their last five.
• Under 50.5 (-110) Confidence 7/10 — Both teams rank bottom 10 in red-zone conversion rate. Expect a slower, clock-chewing tempo led by Derrick Henry and short-yardage runs.
• First Half — Ravens -4 (-110) Confidence 6.5/10 — Baltimore typically starts fast (averaging 13.7 first-half points) while Miami’s slow starts continue to plague them at home.

Top Player Props

Ravens

• Lamar Jackson Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115) — Miami’s secondary has allowed an average of 265 passing yards per game since Week 4. Expect Lamar to surpass this if the Dolphins stack the box against Henry.
• Derrick Henry Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — The Dolphins defense has been gashed for 5.1 yards per carry at home. Henry’s physicality should wear them down by the fourth quarter.
• Zay Flowers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — Flowers has been the go-to target, averaging 7 catches and 82 yards over his last three games. Miami’s corner depth issues add more value here.
• Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+120) — Andrews remains a red-zone favorite, with Baltimore targeting him on 35% of goal-line throws this season.

Dolphins

• Tua Tagovailoa Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-115) — With Baltimore’s pass rush and Tua’s turnover issues, it’s hard to see a clean game through the air. The Ravens have held opponents to under 210 passing yards in 4 of 7 games.
• De’Von Achane Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — Miami will lean on the ground game to keep Tua upright. Achane’s burst gives him a good shot at breaking one long run.
• Jaylen Waddle Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — Baltimore’s secondary has struggled on deep posts; if the Dolphins trail early, expect volume in garbage time.

Game Script Projection

Expect the Ravens to impose their physicality early with Derrick Henry setting the tone. Miami will try to counter with quick throws and outside runs, but Baltimore’s ability to control the clock and win the turnover battle should prevail. Lamar’s mobility gives him the edge over a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in missed tackles.

The Dolphins’ only chance lies in explosive plays from Waddle and Achane, but without consistent pass protection, it’s unlikely they’ll sustain long drives against a disciplined Ravens front seven.