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Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Preseason Game Analysis - August 17, 2024

The NFL preseason is in full swing, and the upcoming matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers is set to be a compelling contest. Both teams are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses in their preseason openers. While the final score may not hold the same weight as regular season games, this game is a critical opportunity for players to secure roster spots and for coaches to evaluate their team's depth. This detailed analysis will break down all the key aspects of the game, from the odds to the coaching strategies, and offer a prediction for bettors.

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
Buffalo Bills	+4 (-105)	+180	Over 35.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-4 (-115)	-215	Under 35.5 (-105)

Team Analysis

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a tough 33-6 loss to the Chicago Bears in their preseason opener, a game in which they struggled on both sides of the ball. The Bills managed just 188 total yards of offense, with quarterback Mitch Trubisky completing 10-of-18 passes for 82 yards. The Bills’ offense failed to find any rhythm, and their only touchdown came late in the game when the outcome was already decided.

One bright spot for the Bills was the performance of running back Shane Buechele, who led the team in rushing with 22 yards on three carries. However, Buechele’s injury, which landed him on injured reserve, means the Bills will need to look elsewhere for production in the running game. Khalil Shakir was the top receiver, with three catches for 28 yards, but the Bills’ passing attack will need to be much more effective against the Steelers.

Defensively, the Bills struggled mightily against the Bears, allowing 426 total yards and failing to generate any turnovers. The pass rush was ineffective, and the secondary was exposed on several big plays. With key players like Ed Oliver and Travis Clayton questionable for this game, the Bills’ defense could be vulnerable once again. The coaching staff will be looking for a much-improved performance, particularly from the backups who will be fighting for roster spots.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers also faced a disappointing result in their preseason opener, losing 20-12 to the Houston Texans. The Steelers’ offense was inconsistent, managing just 269 total yards. Kyle Allen, who is competing for the backup quarterback job, completed 17-of-23 passes for 193 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Allen showed flashes of potential but also made some costly mistakes, including a pick-six that turned the game in Houston’s favor.

The Steelers’ running game was relatively effective, with Daijun Edwards leading the way with 28 yards and a touchdown on three carries. However, the Steelers will need more consistency from their offensive line, which struggled to open up running lanes for much of the game. Calvin Austin III was a standout in the receiving corps, with two receptions for 49 yards, including a 35-yard catch that set up a touchdown. Austin’s speed and playmaking ability could be a key factor against the Bills’ secondary.

Defensively, the Steelers had some positive moments, particularly against the run, where they held the Texans to just 72 rushing yards. However, the pass defense was less effective, allowing Houston to throw for 287 yards. The absence of defensive tackles Breiden Fehoko and Keeanu Benton, both of whom are questionable for this game, could further weaken the Steelers’ front seven, putting pressure on the secondary to step up.

Coaching Analysis

Buffalo Bills - Sean McDermott

Sean McDermott is entering his eighth season as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, and his leadership has been instrumental in the team’s resurgence in recent years. McDermott’s defensive background has helped the Bills become one of the better defensive teams in the NFL, but the preseason opener against the Bears was a significant setback. McDermott will be focused on tightening up the defense, particularly in the secondary, where the Bills were repeatedly burned by big plays.

Offensively, McDermott has entrusted Ken Dorsey with the task of developing the Bills’ passing game. Dorsey, in his second year as offensive coordinator, will need to find ways to get more out of the quarterback position, especially with Josh Allen likely to see limited action during the preseason. The Bills’ offensive line also needs to improve, as they struggled to protect Trubisky and open up running lanes in the opener. This game will be a critical test for the Bills’ backups, who will need to show they can perform at a high level under McDermott’s guidance.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Tomlin

Mike Tomlin is one of the most respected coaches in the NFL, known for his ability to get the most out of his players and consistently keep the Steelers competitive. Now in his 18th season as head coach, Tomlin has never had a losing season, a testament to his coaching prowess. However, the preseason is a different challenge, as Tomlin must balance evaluating talent with keeping his key players healthy for the regular season.

Tomlin’s approach in this game will likely focus on improving the Steelers’ offensive efficiency, particularly in the red zone, where they struggled against the Texans. He will also be looking for a better performance from the defense, especially in the secondary, which gave up too many big plays in the opener. With injuries to several key defensive players, Tomlin will need to rely on his depth and ensure that his backups are ready to step in and contribute.

Recent Performance

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have had a mixed record over their last five games, including both the regular season and the playoffs. After winning three straight games to close out the 2023 regular season, the Bills were eliminated in the AFC Championship by the Kansas City Chiefs. Their preseason opener against the Bears was a stark reminder of the challenges ahead, as the Bills were thoroughly outplayed in all phases of the game.

Offensively, the Bills have been inconsistent, particularly in the passing game, where they have struggled to protect the quarterback and sustain drives. The running game has also been hit-or-miss, with injuries to key players further complicating matters. Defensively, the Bills have shown flashes of dominance, particularly against the run, but their secondary has been a weak point, as evidenced by their struggles against the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been on a rollercoaster over their last five games, including both the regular season and the playoffs. After closing out the 2023 regular season with three straight wins, the Steelers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Bills in the Divisional Round. Their preseason opener against the Texans was a disappointment, as the Steelers failed to generate much offense and struggled to contain Houston’s passing attack.

The Steelers’ offense has been a work in progress, particularly at the quarterback position, where Kyle Allen is still competing for the backup job. The running game has shown promise, but the offensive line needs to be more consistent in both run blocking and pass protection. Defensively, the Steelers have been solid against the run, but their pass defense has been a concern, particularly with injuries to key players in the secondary.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers have had a competitive rivalry in recent years, with both teams enjoying success in the AFC. The Bills won their most recent matchup, a 31-17 victory in the Divisional Round of the 2023 playoffs. Overall, the Steelers have a slight edge in the all-time series, but the Bills have won three of the last four meetings.

In this preseason matchup, the focus will be less on the historical rivalry and more on the performance of the depth players and backups. The Bills will need a strong performance from their secondary to contain the Steelers’ passing attack, while the Steelers will look to establish the run and control the clock. Both teams have areas of concern, particularly on defense, which could make for an interesting and competitive game .

ATS Records

In the 2023 regular season, the Buffalo Bills were 9-8 against the spread (ATS), including a 4-4 ATS record on the road. The Bills struggled to cover the spread in games where they were favored by more than a touchdown, reflecting their inconsistency on offense. Their preseason opener against the Bears was a disaster from an ATS perspective, as they were blown out despite being slight underdogs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were 10-7 ATS in the 2023 season, including a 5-4 ATS record at home. The Steelers have been a reliable team to bet on, particularly in close games where they have consistently covered the spread. However, their preseason opener against the Texans was a disappointment, as they failed to cover the spread as slight favorites. The spread for this game, set at 4 points in favor of the Steelers, reflects the uncertainty surrounding both teams, with the Bills’ struggles in their opener likely influencing the line.

Betting Stats and Trends

Buffalo Bills

• The Bills are 0-1 ATS in the 2024 preseason, failing to cover the spread against the Chicago Bears.
• Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall, including the playoffs.
• The total has gone under in three of the Bills' last five games, including preseason and regular season.
• The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last six games as an underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Steelers are 0-1 ATS in the 2024 preseason, failing to cover the spread against the Houston Texans.
• Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, including the playoffs.
• The total has gone under in four of the Steelers' last five games, including preseason and regular season.
• The Steelers have covered the spread in five of their last six games as a favorite.

Player Spotlight

Buffalo Bills - Mitch Trubisky

Mitch Trubisky, the Bills’ backup quarterback, had a shaky performance in the preseason opener, completing 10-of-18 passes for 82 yards. Trubisky, who is competing for the backup job behind Josh Allen, will need to show more consistency and decision-making in this game to secure his spot on the roster. With the Bills’ offensive line struggling, Trubisky will need to get the ball out quickly and avoid turnovers to keep the offense moving.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Kyle Allen

Kyle Allen, the Steelers’ backup quarterback, had a mixed performance in the preseason opener, throwing for 193 yards and a touchdown but also tossing an interception. Allen’s ability to bounce back from mistakes and lead the offense will be crucial in this game, particularly if the Steelers’ running game struggles to get going. Allen’s decision-making and ability to protect the football will be key factors in determining the Steelers’ success in this matchup.

Injury Impact

Injuries could play a significant role in this game, particularly for the Buffalo Bills, who have several key players listed as questionable. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver and offensive tackle Travis Clayton are both questionable, and their absence would weaken the Bills on both sides of the ball. Without Oliver, the Bills could struggle to generate pressure up the middle, while Clayton’s absence would further strain an already struggling offensive line.

The Steelers are also dealing with injuries, particularly on the defensive line, where Breiden Fehoko is out and Keeanu Benton is questionable. These injuries could impact the Steelers’ ability to stop the run and pressure the quarterback, areas that were already a concern in their preseason opener. Additionally, wide receiver Tarik Black is questionable, which could limit the Steelers’ options in the passing game.

Weather and Venue Impact

The weather for this game is expected to be warm, with temperatures around 82 degrees and no significant wind or precipitation in the forecast. Acrisure Stadium, home of the Pittsburgh Steelers, is known for its passionate fans and challenging playing conditions, particularly later in the season. However, during the preseason, the atmosphere is typically less intense, and the focus is more on player evaluation than crowd noise.

The Bills will need to be prepared for the physicality of playing in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers are known for their tough, hard-nosed style of football. The Steelers, meanwhile, will look to use their home-field advantage to build momentum and put on a strong performance for their fans, even in a preseason setting.

Historical Context

The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers have a rich history, with numerous memorable matchups over the years. The Steelers have traditionally been one of the dominant teams in the AFC, but the Bills have risen to prominence in recent years, making this a competitive and intriguing rivalry. The most recent meeting between these two teams came in the 2023 playoffs, where the Bills emerged victorious with a 31-17 win, advancing to the AFC Championship.

While this is a preseason game and the stakes are much lower, the history between these teams adds an extra layer of intrigue. Both teams will be looking to gain an edge as they prepare for the regular season, and the performances in this game could have implications for future matchups. The Bills will be looking to build on their recent success, while the Steelers will be eager to reassert themselves as one of the top teams in the AFC.

Prediction