© Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

 

NFL Preseason Game Analysis: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans Over Under Prediction

Introduction

The NFL preseason provides a glimpse into each team’s depth, offering a chance to see how well backups and younger players perform in a game setting. This makes for an interesting challenge when predicting outcomes, especially for over/under bets. On Saturday, August 17, 2024, the Seattle Seahawks will face the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. This article will break down both teams' strategies, recent performances, and other factors to assess whether this game will go over or under the set points total.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
Seattle Seahawks	+2.5	+130	40.5
Tennessee Titans	-2.5	-150	40.5

Team Analysis

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks are known for their dynamic offense, led by head coach Pete Carroll, who has consistently maintained a balanced attack. During the preseason, however, the focus shifts to evaluating the depth behind their starters. Geno Smith, the starting quarterback, is likely to see limited action, with Drew Lock and rookie Holton Ahlers getting most of the snaps. Lock, who has starting experience, is known for his strong arm but can be inconsistent, which makes the Seahawks’ offensive output somewhat unpredictable.

The Seahawks' running game, a key aspect of their offense, will also be under the spotlight. With Kenneth Walker III firmly entrenched as the starter, backups like Zach Charbonnet and DeeJay Dallas will get the majority of the carries. The Seahawks are likely to rely on their ground game to control the tempo, which could lead to a more conservative, lower-scoring game.

Defensively, the Seahawks are in a rebuilding phase, particularly in the secondary. They have invested in young talent, but the preseason is a time to see how these players perform under game conditions. The Seahawks’ pass rush, led by Uchenna Nwosu, is also an area of focus, as they look to generate pressure without overcommitting, which could keep the game’s scoring in check.

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans, under head coach Mike Vrabel, are known for their physical, run-heavy approach, which often leads to lower-scoring games. Starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to see much action, with Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis expected to take the majority of the snaps. Both quarterbacks have shown potential but are still developing, which suggests that the Titans may struggle to generate consistent offensive production.

The Titans’ running game, traditionally led by Derrick Henry, will be a focal point, though Henry himself will see limited preseason action. Instead, the team will turn to backups like Hassan Haskins and rookie Tyjae Spears to carry the load. The Titans are likely to stick to their run-first philosophy, controlling the clock and limiting the number of possessions, which could lead to a lower total points outcome.

Defensively, the Titans are strong, particularly in the front seven. Their ability to stop the run and generate pressure on the quarterback will be key in this matchup. The secondary, while solid, is still an area where the team is looking to develop depth, which could be a factor if the Seahawks decide to test them with deep passes.

Recent Performance

Recent preseason performances by both teams provide insight into how this game might play out. The Seahawks have typically played in lower-scoring preseason games, averaging 20 points per game over their last five outings. This reflects a cautious approach, focusing on evaluating younger players and avoiding injuries rather than pushing for high scores.

The Titans have similarly kept their preseason games low-scoring, averaging 19 points per game over their last five contests. Their emphasis on the run game and defense under Mike Vrabel has resulted in a methodical, controlled style of play that limits big plays and scoring opportunities. Given these trends, it’s likely that this game will also lean towards the under, especially if both teams stick to their usual preseason strategies.

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams head-to-head, particularly in a preseason context, several key factors emerge. The Seahawks, even with their dynamic offensive capabilities, have typically been more conservative in preseason games, focusing on establishing the run and controlling the clock. This approach often leads to longer drives but fewer explosive plays, which can keep the score lower.

The Titans, under Vrabel, are known for their physical style and emphasis on defense. Their preseason games often mirror this approach, with the team prioritizing ball control and minimizing mistakes. This strategy is likely to be effective against a Seahawks team that is also focused on evaluating depth rather than scoring points.

Defensively, both teams have strengths that could contribute to a lower-scoring game. The Seahawks’ pass rush, while still developing, has the potential to disrupt the Titans’ quarterbacks, who are still relatively inexperienced. The Titans’ front seven, meanwhile, will look to shut down the Seahawks’ run game, forcing them into passing situations where they might struggle to generate big plays.

Overall, this head-to-head comparison suggests a game that is more likely to stay under the total points line, given both teams’ conservative approaches and focus on defense.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records offer another perspective on how this game might unfold. The Seahawks have been a mixed bag ATS in the preseason, often covering the spread in low-scoring games. In their last five preseason games, they have covered the spread three times, reflecting their ability to keep games close, even if they are not high-scoring.

The Titans, by contrast, have been relatively consistent ATS, covering in four of their last five preseason games. Their ability to control the pace of the game and play sound defense has made them a reliable bet in preseason matchups. However, their games have often stayed close, with lower scoring totals being the norm, further supporting the under as a potential outcome for this game.

These ATS trends suggest that while the Titans may be slight favorites, the game is likely to be tightly contested, with both teams focusing on evaluation and ball control rather than putting up points.

Betting Stats and Trends

Betting stats and trends provide additional insights into how this game might unfold. For the Seahawks, the under has hit in four of their last five preseason games. This trend is consistent with their conservative approach under Pete Carroll, who has emphasized physicality and ball control over explosive offensive play. This makes the under a strong consideration, particularly if the Seahawks are able to dictate the pace of the game.

The Titans, on the other hand, have seen the under hit in three of their last five preseason games. This reflects their focus on defense and running the ball, both of which contribute to lower-scoring games. The Titans’ strategy of controlling the clock and limiting mistakes is likely to keep the game’s scoring in check, making the under a plausible outcome.

Another factor to consider is the playing surface at Nissan Stadium, which is known for being relatively slow. This could benefit both teams’ running games, potentially leading to sustained drives and more scoring opportunities. However, if both teams focus on controlling the clock, the total points could stay under the line.

Prediction