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NFL Preseason Game Analysis: New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers Over Under Prediction

Introduction

The NFL preseason provides teams with the opportunity to assess their rosters, fine-tune strategies, and prepare for the regular season. For bettors, these games offer unique opportunities, particularly when considering over/under bets on total points. On Sunday, August 18, 2024, the New Orleans Saints will take on the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. This article will provide a comprehensive analysis of the game, focusing on whether the total points will exceed or fall short of the set betting line of 38.5 points.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
New Orleans Saints	-1	-110	38.5
San Francisco 49ers	+1	-105	38.5

Team Analysis

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a close preseason victory against the Arizona Cardinals, where they won 16-14. Jake Haener, the rookie quarterback, has shown promise, completing 9 of 13 passes for 107 yards. Haener is expected to see more action in this game as the Saints continue to evaluate their quarterback depth behind Derek Carr. The Saints’ offense has been efficient but conservative, focusing on short, quick passes and a balanced running attack to control the clock.

The Saints’ running game, led by rookie Jalen Mims, has been productive, though not explosive. Mims carried the ball 10 times for 38 yards in the last game, showing his potential as a reliable backup. The team is likely to continue rotating backs to find the best combination heading into the regular season. This approach, centered around ball control and minimizing turnovers, may lead to longer drives but fewer points, particularly against a solid 49ers defense.

Defensively, the Saints have been strong, particularly in the secondary, where they have managed to limit big plays. With several key players like Marshon Lattimore and Demario Davis listed as questionable, the focus will be on evaluating the depth and ensuring that the backups can step in effectively. The Saints’ defense will look to pressure the 49ers’ quarterbacks and create turnovers, which could keep the game low-scoring.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are looking to bounce back after a narrow 17-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans in their first preseason game. Joshua Dobbs, who led the 49ers' offense in that game, completed 14 of 20 passes for 146 yards but also threw an interception. Dobbs is expected to continue getting significant reps as the team evaluates its options at quarterback behind Brock Purdy and Trey Lance. The 49ers’ offense has been somewhat conservative, focusing on short passes and the running game to minimize mistakes.

In the backfield, Jordan Mason has been the most effective runner so far, carrying the ball 6 times for 34 yards and scoring a touchdown. The 49ers are likely to continue emphasizing their ground game, rotating through their running backs to keep them fresh and assess their performance. This strategy of controlling the clock and limiting turnovers could lead to a lower-scoring game, especially against a strong Saints defense.

Defensively, the 49ers have been solid but are dealing with several injuries that could impact their performance. Key players like Talanoa Hufanga and Ambry Thomas are either out or doubtful, which could lead to some vulnerabilities in the secondary. However, the 49ers’ defensive front remains a strength, and they will look to pressure Haener and the Saints' quarterbacks to force mistakes and keep the score low.

Recent Performance

Both teams have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games in the preseason. The Saints averaged 16 points in their last game, relying on their defense to secure the win. Their conservative approach on offense, focusing on ball control and minimizing turnovers, is likely to continue, particularly as they continue to evaluate their depth at key positions.

The 49ers, meanwhile, managed only 13 points in their preseason opener against the Titans. While their offense moved the ball efficiently at times, turnovers and a lack of explosive plays kept their scoring low. Given the 49ers’ injuries and their focus on developing young players, they are likely to adopt a similar conservative approach in this game.

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams head-to-head, several factors stand out. The Saints have shown a consistent ability to control the tempo of the game with their balanced offensive approach. By focusing on short, high-percentage passes and a steady running game, they have been able to sustain long drives, keeping the opposing offense off the field. This methodical approach, combined with a strong defense, has often resulted in low-scoring games.

The 49ers, under head coach Kyle Shanahan, have a similar philosophy, especially in the preseason. Shanahan emphasizes a balanced attack that relies on the running game and short passes to control the clock and limit turnovers. With both teams likely to focus on ball control and defense, this game has the potential to be another low-scoring affair, staying under the total points line.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records offer another layer of insight. The Saints have been solid ATS in the preseason, covering in their last outing against the Cardinals. Their ability to control the game and rely on their defense has made them a reliable bet in low-scoring games. The 49ers, on the other hand, failed to cover the spread against the Titans, largely due to their offensive struggles and inability to finish drives with points.

Given these trends, the under may be the safer bet, particularly if both teams continue to emphasize conservative game plans that focus on evaluating talent and minimizing risks rather than pushing for high scores.

Betting Stats and Trends

Betting stats and trends further support the idea of a low-scoring game. The Saints have seen the under hit in three of their last five preseason games, reflecting their emphasis on defense and ball control. This trend is likely to continue, especially with several key players potentially sidelined due to injury.

The 49ers have also seen the under hit in three of their last five preseason games. With their focus on developing young talent and managing the game through their running attack and short passing game, the 49ers are unlikely to push the pace or take unnecessary risks. This approach aligns with Shanahan’s philosophy, particularly in the preseason, where the emphasis is on player evaluation rather than winning at all costs.

Another important factor to consider is the venue. Levi’s Stadium, with its natural grass surface, tends to play slower than some of the faster turf fields in the NFL. This could further contribute to a lower-scoring game, particularly if both teams focus on controlling the ball and limiting big plays.

Player Spotlight: Jake Haener

A player to keep an eye on in this matchup is Saints rookie quarterback Jake Haener. Haener has shown poise and accuracy in limited action so far, completing 9 of 13 passes for 107 yards in his preseason debut. As a young quarterback, Haener is still adjusting to the speed and complexity of the NFL, but his early performances have been promising.

Haener’s development is crucial for the Saints, especially as they look to establish a reliable backup behind Derek Carr. In this game, Haener will likely be tested by the 49ers’ aggressive defense, which will provide valuable experience for the rookie. If Haener can continue to play mistake-free football, it will help the Saints maintain long drives and control the pace of the game.

Injury Impact

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Injury Impact

Injuries could play a significant role in this matchup. For the Saints, key players like Marshon Lattimore, Demario Davis, and Alvin Kamara are listed as questionable. Their absence could weaken the Saints’ defense and running game, potentially forcing the team to lean more heavily on younger, less experienced players. This might limit their ability to control the game, making the outcome more unpredictable.

On the 49ers’ side, several players, including Talanoa Hufanga and Ambry Thomas, are dealing with injuries. These absences could leave the 49ers’ secondary vulnerable, particularly against a disciplined Saints passing game. However, the 49ers’ depth in the defensive front should help mitigate these losses, allowing them to continue applying pressure on the Saints’ quarterbacks.

The injury report is a critical factor to monitor leading up to the game, as the status of these key players could significantly impact both teams’ strategies and the game’s overall score.

Weather and Venue Impact

The game will be held at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, where the weather is expected to be mild with a temperature of around 77°F. While weather conditions won’t directly impact the game since it’s being played in favorable conditions, the stadium’s natural grass surface can influence play. Grass fields tend to be slower, which may benefit defenses and contribute to a lower-scoring game. Additionally, the outdoor environment and potential for wind could slightly impact the passing game, further supporting a focus on ground attacks and conservative play.

Coaching Strategy

Both teams are likely to employ conservative game plans. Saints head coach Dennis Allen has emphasized evaluation and roster development during the preseason. The Saints’ approach has focused on controlling the clock, running the ball, and using short, quick passes to minimize turnovers and manage the game efficiently. This strategy is expected to continue, especially with several key players dealing with injuries.

For the 49ers, head coach Kyle Shanahan is known for his balanced offensive approach, utilizing the run to set up play-action passes. In the preseason, Shanahan typically prioritizes evaluating depth and protecting his key starters, leading to a more conservative offensive game plan. Given these coaching philosophies, the game is likely to feature methodical drives and a focus on limiting mistakes, which could result in fewer points scored.

Advanced Metrics

Advanced metrics provide further insights into the expected pace and scoring of the game. The Saints’ offense has shown efficiency in converting third downs, which helps extend drives and control the clock. Their ability to sustain drives through short, efficient passing and a steady run game has been a hallmark of their preseason strategy.

Defensively, the Saints rank highly in limiting opponents’ explosive plays, which has been key to their success in keeping games low-scoring. The 49ers, similarly, excel at preventing big plays, particularly through their disciplined secondary and aggressive pass rush. Their defense has been effective in creating negative plays, such as sacks and tackles for loss, which disrupt opposing drives and limit scoring opportunities.

These metrics suggest that both teams will likely continue to focus on controlling the tempo and avoiding high-risk plays, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

Historical Context

Historically, matchups between the Saints and 49ers have been competitive and often lower-scoring, particularly in the preseason. Both teams have emphasized strong defensive play and ball control in these games, leading to tight, low-scoring affairs. This history, combined with the current coaching strategies and roster considerations, suggests that this game will likely follow a similar pattern.

The last few preseason encounters between these teams have tended to stay under the total points line, reflecting their mutual focus on defense and conservative play-calling. This trend is expected to continue in this matchup, especially with both teams looking to minimize mistakes and evaluate their rosters effectively.

Prediction