© Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

 

NFL MNF Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction - Game Analysis

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) head north to face the Buffalo Bills (2-0) in a Monday Night Football matchup on September 23, 2024, at 4:30 PM ET. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills have been off to a strong start, while the Jaguars are still searching for their first win of the season.

 

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)	+5.5 (-110)	O 45.5 (-115)	+220
Buffalo Bills (2-0)	-5.5 (-110)	U 45.5 (-105)	-270

Team Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a tough start to the season, with close losses to the Dolphins and Browns. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 382 yards and just one touchdown, as the offense has struggled to find its rhythm. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. has been one of the bright spots, tallying 96 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but Jacksonville’s overall offensive output has been lackluster. Wide receiver Bryce Thomas Jr. has been a standout, with 141 yards and a touchdown, but the Jags need more consistency from their passing game.

Defensively, Jacksonville has kept games close, but injuries in the secondary, including the loss of Tyson Campbell and safety Darnell Savage, have weakened their ability to contain the pass. The Jaguars’ defense will face a tough test against a Bills offense that has been firing on all cylinders.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have started the season hot, led by the steady play of Josh Allen, who has thrown for 371 yards and three touchdowns through two games. Running back James Cook has added balance to the offense, rushing for 149 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir has emerged as a reliable target with 96 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions, while Allen continues to spread the ball effectively.

Buffalo’s defense has been a force to be reckoned with, allowing just 38 points in their first two games. However, injuries to key players like linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Taron Johnson could test their depth, especially in the middle of the field. Nonetheless, the Bills will rely on their pass rush and strong secondary to keep Lawrence in check.

Coaches Analysis

Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Doug Pederson has built a reputation for offensive creativity, but his team has struggled to execute so far in 2024. The Jaguars have the talent on offense, but inconsistency, especially on third downs and in the red zone, has been a major issue. Pederson’s challenge will be finding a way to move the ball against Buffalo’s stingy defense, especially without key players in the lineup.

Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills)

Sean McDermott has guided Buffalo to a 2-0 start with a balanced game plan on both sides of the ball. His defense continues to be a strength, despite injuries, and McDermott’s focus will be on keeping the Jaguars’ offense out of rhythm. On offense, McDermott’s game plan revolves around the dynamic play of Josh Allen, but the run game will also be key in controlling the pace of the game.

Recent Performance

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Week 1: Lost 20-17 vs Miami Dolphins
• Week 2: Lost 18-13 vs Cleveland Browns

Jacksonville’s first two games have both been close, but they’ve been unable to close the deal late in games. Trevor Lawrence has yet to find a consistent groove with his receivers, and the offense has been stifled in crucial moments. The Jaguars’ defense has kept them in games, but costly mistakes and injuries have played a significant role in their 0-2 start.

Buffalo Bills

• Week 1: Won 34-28 vs Arizona Cardinals
• Week 2: Won 31-10 vs Miami Dolphins

The Bills have dominated both of their first two games, particularly in Week 2 against the Dolphins. Josh Allen has been in command, and the defense has shut down opposing offenses. Buffalo’s ability to control both sides of the ball has them looking like one of the top teams in the AFC.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Buffalo has the clear advantage on both sides of the ball going into this game. While Jacksonville has shown flashes of promise, the Bills' overall balance and ability to control the game on offense and defense give them the edge. The Jaguars’ defense may struggle to keep up with the versatility of Buffalo’s offense, while the Jags' offense could find it difficult to sustain long drives against a Bills defense that is allowing just 19 points per game.

ATS Records

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-1 ATS in 2024
• Buffalo Bills: 2-0 ATS in 2024

Buffalo has covered the spread in both of their games this season, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing down. Jacksonville has struggled to cover, going 1-1 ATS, and they face an uphill battle against a Bills team that is firing on all cylinders. The 5.5-point spread favors Buffalo, but the total of 45.5 suggests a relatively low-scoring game, which could work in Jacksonville’s favor if their defense can slow down Buffalo’s high-powered offense.

Betting Stats and Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 home games.
• Jacksonville is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games on the road.
• Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Jacksonville is 3-4 SU in their last 7 Monday Night Football games.

 

Prediction