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NFL Week 1: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview and Prediction

Introduction

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with an intriguing matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 8th. The Falcons enter the game as 3.5-point favorites at home, led by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in his debut for Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Steelers are starting a new era with Russell Wilson under center, looking to rebound after a disappointing preseason. With both teams undergoing significant changes, this Week 1 clash will set the tone for the season ahead. 

 

Game Odds

Odds by ESPN BET as of 10:00 AM

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)	+3.5 (-120)	o41.5 (-115)	+155
Atlanta Falcons (0-0)	-3.5 (EVEN)	u41.5 (-105)	-185

 

Team Overview

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers come into the 2024 season with significant changes, most notably at quarterback. Russell Wilson, acquired in the offseason, is expected to bring veteran leadership and a spark to an offense that struggled mightily last year. However, Wilson’s preseason was inconsistent, raising questions about how quickly he can adapt to the Steelers’ system and whether he can return to his Pro Bowl form.

The Steelers’ offense will rely heavily on its running game, with Najee Harris expected to be the workhorse back. Harris has the ability to control the tempo of the game and take some pressure off Wilson, but he’ll be running behind an offensive line that has been a point of concern. The receiving corps, featuring Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, offers playmaking potential, but much will depend on Wilson’s ability to get them the ball consistently.

Defensively, the Steelers remain strong, particularly in their front seven. T.J. Watt anchors a pass rush that can disrupt even the best offensive lines, while the secondary, led by Minkah Fitzpatrick, is opportunistic and capable of creating turnovers. However, with several key players, including Wilson himself, listed as questionable for this game, the Steelers’ ability to execute their game plan effectively may be hampered. If Pittsburgh’s defense can’t dominate and their offense struggles to find rhythm, they could be in for a tough outing in Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2024 season with new optimism, largely due to the acquisition of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins, known for his accuracy and ability to manage games, is expected to bring stability to an offense that has been inconsistent in recent years. The Falcons are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 7-10 season in 2023, and Cousins’ leadership will be key in turning things around.

The Falcons’ offense will likely feature a balanced attack, with running back Bijan Robinson, the 2023 first-round pick, expected to play a major role. Robinson showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season, and his ability to contribute both as a runner and receiver will be crucial against a tough Steelers defense. The receiving corps, led by Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, provides Cousins with plenty of options in the passing game, though Pitts is listed as questionable for this game. If Pitts is unable to play, the Falcons will need others to step up, but they have the depth to manage.

Defensively, the Falcons have made significant improvements, particularly in their pass rush. Grady Jarrett remains a force in the middle, and the addition of veterans like Calais Campbell has bolstered the defensive line. The secondary, anchored by A.J. Terrell, is solid and should be able to handle the Steelers’ receiving threats, particularly if Russell Wilson is not at full strength. The Falcons’ defense will be tasked with containing Najee Harris and forcing Wilson into difficult situations. If they can do that, Atlanta should be able to control the game and cover the spread.

 

Recent Performance

The Steelers had a rough preseason, finishing 0-3 with losses to the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans. Their most recent game, a 24-17 loss to the Lions, highlighted several areas of concern, particularly on offense, where Russell Wilson struggled to find consistency. The Steelers’ defense, while still strong, showed some vulnerability to big plays, especially in the secondary. If Pittsburgh cannot address these issues quickly, they could be in for a challenging start to the season.

The Falcons also had a disappointing preseason, finishing 0-3. Their most recent game, a 31-0 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, was particularly concerning, as the offense failed to generate any points. However, the Falcons were resting several starters, including Kirk Cousins, which may explain the lack of production. The defense, though, showed some promise, particularly in stopping the run. With their starters back in the lineup, the Falcons are expected to perform much better in the regular season, especially at home.

 

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams, the Falcons appear to have the upper hand, particularly with the spread set at -3.5. Kirk Cousins brings stability and experience to the Falcons’ offense, which should be more efficient and balanced than the Steelers’ attack led by the new and somewhat uncertain Russell Wilson. The Falcons’ ability to control the tempo with Bijan Robinson and exploit matchups with their receivers gives them a significant advantage.

The Steelers, while strong defensively, may struggle to contain the Falcons’ balanced attack, particularly if they are forced to defend the run and pass equally. On offense, Pittsburgh’s success will depend on how well Wilson can adapt to his new surroundings and whether he can avoid turnovers. However, with Wilson dealing with a questionable status and the Falcons’ defense expected to bring pressure, the Steelers’ offense could be in for a tough day.

Overall, the Falcons’ combination of a veteran quarterback, a strong running game, and a solid defense makes them a good bet to cover the -3.5 spread at home.

 

Key Injuries and Their Impact

Injuries could play a significant role in this game, particularly for the Steelers. Russell Wilson, the new face of the franchise, is listed as questionable, and his availability will be crucial. If Wilson is limited or unable to play, the Steelers’ offense could struggle to move the ball consistently. Additionally, key players like Troy Fautanu and Jaylen Warren are also listed as questionable, which could impact both the offensive line and the running game.

For the Falcons, tight end Kyle Pitts is the most notable player on the injury report. If Pitts is unable to go, it could limit Atlanta’s options in the passing game, particularly in the red zone. However, the Falcons have depth at the skill positions, and players like Bijan Robinson and Drake London are more than capable of stepping up. The Falcons’ defense is relatively healthy, which should allow them to focus on exploiting the Steelers’ offensive weaknesses.

 

Coaching Matchup

The coaching matchup features Atlanta’s Arthur Smith against Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. Smith, known for his offensive schemes, will look to maximize the talents of Kirk Cousins and Bijan Robinson. His ability to create mismatches and utilize play-action effectively could be the key to breaking down Pittsburgh’s strong defense. Smith’s challenge will be to ensure that the Falcons’ offense is balanced and unpredictable, keeping the Steelers off guard.

On the other sideline, Mike Tomlin remains one of the most respected coaches in the NFL, known for getting the most out of his players regardless of the situation. However, Tomlin faces a significant challenge in integrating Russell Wilson into a new system, especially if Wilson is not at full health. Tomlin will need to rely on his defense to keep the game close and hope that his offense can find a rhythm despite the uncertainties. The coaching battle will likely come down to who can make the better in-game adjustments, but with the Falcons’ roster appearing more settled, Smith may have the edge.

 

Advanced Metrics and Key Stats

Advanced metrics suggest that the Falcons have the edge in this matchup, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Last season, Kirk Cousins ranked among the top quarterbacks in the league in terms of completion percentage and passer rating, metrics that reflect his ability to manage games and avoid costly mistakes. With a strong supporting cast, Cousins should be able to lead a balanced and efficient offense that can exploit the Steelers’ defensive vulnerabilities.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency last season, a trend that could continue if Russell Wilson struggles to adapt to his new team. The key statistical areas to watch in this game will be third-down conversions and red-zone efficiency. The Falcons’ ability to extend drives and convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns will be crucial, particularly if they can put the Steelers in a position where they are forced to play from behind.

 

Weather and Venue Impact

This game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, so weather will not be a factor. The controlled environment should benefit both offenses, allowing them to execute their game plans without the concerns of wind or rain. The fast track at the stadium could also play into the Falcons’ favor, particularly with their dynamic playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

The Falcons will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd, known for creating a loud and energetic atmosphere. For the Steelers, playing on the road with a new quarterback and several key players dealing with injuries could present significant challenges. If Atlanta can take an early lead and get the crowd involved, it could make it difficult for Pittsburgh to mount a comeback.

 

Betting Trends and Statistics

Betting trends favor the Falcons in this matchup, particularly given their home-field advantage. Atlanta has covered the spread in four of their last six home games, reflecting their ability to perform well in front of their own fans. The Falcons have also been strong as favorites, covering the spread in three of their last five games when favored by three points or more.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have struggled against the spread, particularly on the road. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and they have had difficulty covering the spread when playing as underdogs. Given these trends and the current state of both teams, the Falcons appear to be the safer bet to cover the -3.5 spread.

 

Player Spotlight: Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson, the Falcons’ dynamic running back, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. Robinson showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season, and he will be a focal point of Atlanta’s offense this year. His ability to break tackles, find running lanes, and contribute in the passing game makes him a dual threat that the Steelers’ defense will need to account for on every play.

Robinson’s impact will be particularly important if the Falcons are to control the tempo of the game. By establishing the run early and forcing the Steelers to commit extra defenders to stop him, Robinson can open up opportunities for Kirk Cousins in the passing game. If Robinson can dominate on the ground and help the Falcons sustain long drives, it will significantly increase Atlanta’s chances of covering the spread and securing a Week 1 victory.

 

Prediction