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NFL Preseason Game Analysis: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over Under Prediction

Introduction

Preseason games in the NFL serve multiple purposes, from evaluating new talent to testing playbooks under live conditions. However, they also present interesting opportunities for bettors, particularly when it comes to over/under wagers. The Detroit Lions are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, August 17, 2024, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. This article will thoroughly analyze both teams, focusing on whether the game’s total points will exceed or fall short of the established betting line.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
Detroit Lions	+5.0	+180	41.0
Kansas City Chiefs	-5.0	-220	41.0

Team Analysis

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are entering this preseason with renewed optimism, largely due to the steady improvements made under head coach Dan Campbell. The Lions have built a roster that is more competitive than in recent years, particularly on offense. However, the preseason is less about the starters and more about the depth of the team. The Lions’ quarterback depth chart behind Jared Goff includes Teddy Bridgewater and Nate Sudfeld, both of whom are expected to see significant playing time in this matchup.

Bridgewater is a veteran with a conservative playing style, known for managing the game efficiently but not necessarily pushing the ball downfield. Sudfeld, while younger and with a stronger arm, has been inconsistent. Given the focus on evaluation rather than scoring, it’s likely that the Lions will lean on their running game, which features depth players like Craig Reynolds and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, to control the pace of the game.

Defensively, the Lions have made strides, particularly in their pass rush and secondary. Aidan Hutchinson, their star pass rusher, is unlikely to see much action, but the preseason offers a chance for younger players to step up. The Lions’ secondary, though improved, will also be tested, particularly by a Chiefs offense known for its explosive capabilities, even in the preseason. The Lions will need to find a balance between stopping big plays and evaluating their younger defensive talent.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs, under head coach Andy Reid, have consistently been one of the most potent offensive teams in the NFL. However, in the preseason, their approach is often more measured, focusing on integrating new players and testing out different schemes. Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to see significant playing time, with backups Blaine Gabbert and Shane Buechele expected to take most of the snaps.

Gabbert, a veteran, provides stability but is not known for his ability to generate high-scoring drives. Buechele, on the other hand, offers a more dynamic option, but his inexperience could lead to mistakes. The Chiefs’ running game, featuring players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie Deneric Prince, will likely be a focal point as the team looks to establish a balanced attack and protect its quarterbacks.

Defensively, the Chiefs are also in a period of transition, particularly in the secondary. The team will be using the preseason to evaluate younger players and solidify their depth chart. However, the Chiefs’ defense has been vulnerable in preseason games, often allowing opponents to keep the score close, even when the offense is not firing on all cylinders. This could be a key factor in determining whether this game goes over or under the total points line.

Recent Performance

Recent preseason performances offer valuable insights into how this game might unfold. The Lions have generally kept games close and low-scoring during the preseason, with an emphasis on ball control and avoiding injuries. Over their last five preseason games, the Lions have averaged just 20 points per game. This conservative approach, particularly with their second and third-string players, suggests that they are more focused on evaluation than on scoring.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have a history of higher-scoring preseason games, averaging 24 points per game over their last five outings. This is partly due to their deep offensive roster, which often features players capable of breaking off big plays even when the starters are not on the field. However, this offensive firepower is often tempered by a defense that is still finding its footing, leading to games that can swing either way in terms of total points.

Given these recent performances, it’s likely that the Chiefs will try to push the pace, while the Lions will attempt to slow the game down and control possession. This dynamic will play a crucial role in determining whether the game stays under or goes over the total points line.

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams head-to-head, particularly in a preseason context, several key factors stand out. The Lions, under Dan Campbell, have shown a preference for conservative game plans in the preseason, focusing on grinding out games rather than lighting up the scoreboard. Their emphasis on the run game and short passing attacks is likely to result in sustained drives but fewer explosive plays.

The Chiefs, conversely, have been more willing to experiment offensively during the preseason. Andy Reid’s system is well-established, allowing even backup quarterbacks to execute the playbook effectively. This has often led to higher-scoring games, particularly when facing defenses that are still in the process of evaluating their depth. However, the Chiefs’ defense, particularly the secondary, has been less consistent, which could allow the Lions to put up enough points to keep the game close.

Defensively, the Lions are likely to focus on containing the Chiefs’ passing attack, even if it is led by backups. Their ability to generate pressure without blitzing will be key, as it will allow them to drop more players into coverage. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will need to find ways to protect their quarterbacks and establish the run, particularly against a Lions defense that has improved but is still vulnerable to big plays.

Overall, this head-to-head comparison suggests a game that could go either way in terms of total points, depending on which team is able to impose its preferred style of play.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records are another important metric to consider when analyzing potential outcomes for this game. The Lions have been a mixed bag ATS in the preseason, often covering the spread in low-scoring games. In their last five preseason games, they have covered the spread three times, reflecting their ability to keep games close, even if they are not high-scoring.

The Chiefs, by contrast, have been more variable ATS in the preseason. While they have covered the spread in three of their last five preseason games, the games have often been higher scoring, particularly when their offense gets into a rhythm. However, their defense’s inconsistency has also led to games that stay close, sometimes causing the total points to exceed the set line.

These ATS trends suggest that while the Chiefs may be the favorites, the total points could go either way, depending on how effectively the Lions are able to execute their game plan and control the tempo of the game.

Betting Stats and Trends

Betting stats and trends offer additional insights into how this game might unfold. For the Lions, the under has hit in four of their last five preseason games. This trend is consistent with their approach under Dan Campbell, who has emphasized physicality and ball control over explosive offensive play. This makes the under a strong consideration, particularly if the Lions are able to dictate the pace of the game.

The Chiefs, however, have seen the over hit in three of their last five preseason games. This is reflective of their potent offensive capabilities, even when the backups are on the field. However, it’s important to note that the over has typically hit when the Chiefs face teams with less disciplined defenses, which may not be the case against a Lions team that is improving defensively.

Another factor to consider is the playing surface at Arrowhead Stadium, which is known for being fast. This could benefit both teams’ running games, potentially leading to sustained drives and more scoring opportunities. However, if both teams focus on controlling the clock, the total points could stay under the line.

Prediction