Jets vs Chiefs Prediction NFL Sunday Night Football 10/1

Jets vs Chiefs Prediction NFL Sunday Night Football 10/1

© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

 

Chiefs vs. Jets - NFL Week 4 Preview

In an unexpected turn of events, the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are set to face the New York Jets (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Sunday night at 8:20 PM ET. Originally billed as a quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, injuries have reshaped this matchup into a contest featuring Mahomes against rookie Zach Wilson.

 

Kansas City's Offensive Rebound

Kansas City entered last week's game against Chicago with a paltry 37 points scored over two games, leaving fans and pundits alike scratching their heads. They lost their opener to Detroit (21-20) and narrowly escaped Jacksonville with a 17-9 victory as 3-point favorites on September 17.

However, the Chiefs unleashed their offensive prowess against the struggling Bears, securing a commanding 41-10 victory. They poured on 27 points in the second quarter alone after an initial seven points in the first. The only off-field drama came in the form of tight end Travis Kelce aiming to catch a touchdown pass in front of his reported girlfriend, Taylor Swift, who was watching from a suite with his mother. Kelce did indeed catch a touchdown pass in the third quarter.

Mahomes played through an ankle injury, throwing for 272 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Chicago. Rookie Rashee Rice contributed five catches for 59 yards, showcasing potential receiving depth alongside Kelce.

Chiefs' Offensive and Defensive Stats

While the Chiefs' offense found its rhythm against the Bears, they face a more formidable challenge in the Jets. Mahomes has completed 65.5% of his passes for 803 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Running back Isaiah Pacheco has contributed 155 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per carry.

However, concerns arise at the wide receiver position, where talent beyond Kelce remains unproven. Justin Watson, who had 15 catches for 315 yards last season, has managed seven catches for 158 yards (22.6 yards per catch) this season.

Defensively, the Chiefs have been solid, allowing just 19 points over their last two games. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has been instrumental in their success, but his availability due to a groin injury remains a question mark.

 

Jets' Offensive Struggles

The New York Jets opened the season with a glimmer of hope, securing a 22-16 home win over Buffalo. However, in their next two games, they faced formidable defenses and succumbed to Dallas (30-10) and New England, marking their 15th consecutive loss to the Patriots.

The loss to New England highlighted the Jets' offensive woes. They struggled to run the football, gaining only 38 yards on 22 carries, forcing them to rely heavily on Zach Wilson. While they brought in 31-year-old veteran Trevor Siemian, who will eventually start, Wilson's performance has been lackluster, with a QBR of 26.7, ranking 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks.

Offensive struggles have plagued the Jets, ranking last in yards per game (225), passing yards (133.7), and points per game (14).

Jets' Defensive Performance

Despite their offensive struggles, the Jets have shown promise on the defensive end, ranking 19th in total yards allowed per game (351.3) and 23rd against the run (129.3). They have held opponents to an average of 20.3 points per game, ranking 12th in the NFL.

With a formidable defensive line led by DL Quinton Jefferson and Quinnen Williams, the Jets have managed to keep games competitive, even in the face of offensive challenges.

 

Prediction

Now, let's examine why betting the under of 41.5 points is a wise choice for this matchup:

  • Stingy Defenses: Both teams have demonstrated strong defensive performances, and the Jets have notably limited opponents' scoring.
  • Offensive Struggles: The Jets' offensive struggles and lack of firepower, coupled with the Chiefs' unproven receiving corps, suggest a lower-scoring affair.
  • Mahomes' Ankle: While Mahomes is expected to play through his ankle injury, there's a chance it could affect his mobility, potentially impacting the Chiefs' offensive output.

Considering these factors, it's reasonable to expect a game with fewer points on the board. The under of 41.5 points offers value, as the Jets' defense can potentially keep the game competitive while their offense continues to search for answers.

 

Pick: Under 41.5 -110

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