Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11): NFL Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11): NFL Week 5

  • Ajay
  • Ajay
  • Oct 10, 2021, 9:09:55 AM

Credit: photo by Robert Scheer-IndyStar

Time 8:15 p.m. EST
Colts money line +275
Colts spread +7
Ravens money line -294
Ravens spread -6.5
Over / under 46.5


2021 season stats
  Colts Ravens
Record 1-3 3-1
Road / home record 1-1 1-0
Points per game 20.8 26.3
Points allowed per game 24.3 23.0
Pass yards per game 214 256
Rush yards per game 112 165
Total yards per game 348 434
Total yards allowed per game 331 359
Turnover ratio +4 -1



The Colts finally notched their first win of the season in Week 4 by beating the Dolphins 27-17 in Miami.  Indy sits 3rd in the AFC South tied 1-3 with the Texans and only a single game behind the Titans.  This week they travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team who are 2nd in the AFC North on a 3-game winning streak after losing their opener to the Raiders.  Last week they held the Broncos to 7 points.  Both the Colts and Ravens are looking to keep pace in their division in an effort to get back into the postseason.  

Offensive matchup

The Colts haven't been consistent on offense.  They rank 20th in total yards per game and 21st in points per game.  Carson Wentz has only thrown for 5 TDs so far, but unlike last year he's eliminated the high number of picks having only thrown 1 in 4 games.  They're still without T.Y. Hilton and Nyheim Hines was limited in practice with a shoulder injury.  Marlon Mack will assume backup duties behind Jonathan Taylor.  Michael Pittman leads the team with 279 receiving yards and is expected to be available this weekend along with Zach Pascal.

The Ravens rank 2nd in total yards per game and despite losing their running back committee before the start of the season, they now have the 3rd best running game in the league averaging 165 rushing yards per game.  That is due in part to Lamar Jackson who has 279 rushing yards in 4 games.  Second-year player Ty'Son Williams and new recruit Latavius Murray have both contributed with 164 and 151 rushing yards, respectively.  Marquise Brown is on pace to have a career-best season having already racked up 326 receiving yards, almost half his total from last season.  Sammy Watkins has also proved to be a good addition to the offense.  He has 257 yards through the air in the first month of action.

Defensive matchup

Indy's defense has been better against the pass than against the run.  They rank 9th in passing defense only giving up 217 yards per game through the air as opposed to 15th in rushing defense allowing 114 rushing yards per game.  Kwity Paye and Darius Leonard are both dealing with injuries.  Paye didn't practice on Thursday or Friday due to a hamstring injury and Leonard was a limited participant on Friday.  If both are absent it could be a difficult night for the defense against Baltimore's strong rush attack.

The Ravens are dealing with injuries on defense as well.  They lost Marcus Peters prior to the start of the season and his absence is evident.  They are 25th against the pass giving up 273 yards per game.  Patrick Queen is the team's leading tackler with 27 tackles.  Chuck Clark has added another 23 and Marlon Humphrey has 20.  


The Colts haven't been able to keep pace offensively this season.  Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has had a great start to the season.  He already has over 1000 passing yards and is a top 10 rusher.  The Ravens have won their only game at home this season which was also in primetime against the Chiefs.  Expect them to go 2-0 at home on Monday night.

PICK: Ravens money line (-294)

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