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NFL Preseason Game Analysis: Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders Over Under Prediction

Introduction

The NFL preseason serves as a critical time for teams to evaluate their rosters, integrate new strategies, and prepare for the upcoming regular season. These games also provide bettors with unique opportunities, especially when it comes to over/under bets, which can be more challenging to predict. On Saturday, August 17, 2024, the Dallas Cowboys will face off against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV. This article offers an in-depth analysis of the game, focusing on whether the total points will exceed or fall short of the betting line of 38.5 points.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
Dallas Cowboys	+6.5	+250	38.5
Las Vegas Raiders	-6.5	-300	38.5

Team Analysis

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this preseason game focusing on evaluating their younger players, particularly in the quarterback position. Trey Lance, a recent acquisition via trade, will likely take most of the snaps as the Cowboys assess his readiness and fit within their offensive system. Lance has shown potential but has also struggled with consistency, making this game critical for his development.

The Cowboys’ running game, which usually features Tony Pollard, will instead rely on backups like Rico Dowdle and Malik Davis. The team is expected to focus on establishing the run, controlling the clock, and minimizing turnovers, particularly with a less experienced quarterback leading the offense. This strategy could result in longer drives but fewer scoring opportunities, potentially keeping the overall score low.

Defensively, the Cowboys are known for their strong pass rush, led by Micah Parsons. However, the preseason will see the team testing its depth, especially in the secondary and linebacker positions. With key players likely resting, younger players will get their chance to shine. The Cowboys’ defense is expected to apply pressure on the Raiders’ offense, aiming to limit their scoring chances and keep the game close.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are also in evaluation mode, particularly when it comes to their quarterback depth chart. Gardner Minshew, competing for the backup quarterback role, is expected to see significant playing time. Minshew’s experience provides stability, but he is not known for generating high-scoring drives. The Raiders may adopt a balanced offensive approach, mixing in runs to control the tempo and reduce the risk of turnovers.

The Raiders’ running game will feature backups like Sincere McCormick and Zamir White, as regular starter Josh Jacobs will likely sit out. Head coach Josh McDaniels is expected to emphasize the ground game, aiming to control the clock and limit the Cowboys’ offensive opportunities. This conservative approach could contribute to a lower-scoring affair.

On defense, the Raiders will focus on evaluating their secondary and testing new defensive schemes. The team’s pass rush, led by Maxx Crosby, will be crucial in disrupting the Cowboys’ offensive rhythm. With both teams expected to play conservatively, the game may see fewer points than the betting line suggests.

Recent Performance

The Cowboys have typically kept their preseason games close and low-scoring, averaging 16 points per game over their last five outings. This reflects a cautious approach, where the focus is on evaluation rather than high-octane offense. The trend is likely to continue, especially with the Cowboys emphasizing a ground-and-pound strategy.

The Raiders have averaged 21 points per game in their last five preseason matchups, though this scoring has often been boosted by late-game situations when third-string players are on the field. Given that both teams will likely focus on their backups, the game might trend toward a lower score, particularly if the defenses set the tone early.

Head-to-Head Comparison

In a preseason context, both teams show similar tendencies—prioritizing evaluation and player development over aggressive play-calling. The Cowboys’ conservative approach focuses on ball control, minimizing turnovers, and assessing player performance rather than pushing the pace offensively. Their strategy often results in longer drives with fewer explosive plays, contributing to a lower overall score.

The Raiders, under head coach Josh McDaniels, also tend to prioritize a balanced, methodical approach during the preseason. With Gardner Minshew likely leading the offense, the Raiders are expected to mix in short passes and runs to maintain possession and control the clock. This approach, while effective for game management, generally leads to lower scoring.

Defensively, both teams have the capability to limit their opponent's scoring. The Cowboys’ pass rush, led by Parsons, will be a key factor in disrupting the Raiders’ offensive flow, while the Raiders’ defensive line aims to create pressure and force the Cowboys into difficult situations. Both teams are likely to rotate younger, less experienced players into the game, potentially leading to more defensive stops and a lower total score.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records offer additional insight into how this game might play out. The Cowboys have been inconsistent ATS in the preseason, often struggling to cover the spread in low-scoring games. Over their last five preseason games, they have covered the spread twice, indicating that while they keep games close, they do not always generate enough offense to cover larger spreads.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have been more reliable ATS in the preseason, covering the spread in three of their last five games. However, these games have often been close and low-scoring, reflecting the Raiders’ focus on ball control and defense. Given these trends, the under remains a strong consideration, particularly if both teams focus on evaluation and avoid risky plays.

Betting Stats and Trends

When analyzing broader betting stats and trends, the under has been a consistent trend for both teams during the preseason. For the Cowboys, the under has hit in four of their last five preseason games, aligning with their conservative approach under head coach Mike McCarthy. This trend suggests that the Cowboys are more likely to be involved in low-scoring games, making the under a strong bet in this matchup.

The Raiders have also seen the under hit in three of their last five preseason games, reflecting their focus on defense and ball control. McDaniels’ strategy of limiting turnovers and controlling the clock is likely to keep the game’s scoring in check. Additionally, with both teams likely to rotate in younger, less experienced players, the pace of the game may slow down, further supporting the under.

Another factor to consider is the game’s location at Allegiant Stadium, which typically provides a fast playing surface. However, the indoor environment and controlled conditions are unlikely to significantly impact the overall pace of the game, especially if both teams focus on running the ball and controlling the clock. This controlled pace could further contribute to a lower-scoring game.

Player Spotlight: Trey Lance

A key player to watch in this matchup is Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance. Recently acquired via trade, Lance is eager to prove himself after a tumultuous start to his NFL career. Originally a high draft pick, Lance's potential has been hindered by injuries and inconsistent play. This preseason game is crucial for Lance as he tries to solidify his spot on the roster and gain the confidence of his coaches and teammates. Lance’s performance will heavily influence the Cowboys' offensive game plan. Given his mobility and strong arm, the Cowboys might attempt to showcase his dual-threat abilities by incorporating designed quarterback runs and play-action passes. However, with Lance still adjusting to the Cowboys' system, it's likely that the game plan will remain conservative to avoid turnovers and unnecessary risks. Lance's ability to execute a simplified game plan will be under scrutiny, particularly in how he handles pressure from the Raiders' defense. If Lance can manage the game effectively without committing turnovers, it could lead to sustained drives and put ```html success on offense will play a crucial role in the Cowboys' ability to keep the game close and competitive. If Lance struggles to adapt, however, the Cowboys may lean even more heavily on their running game, which could lead to a slower-paced, lower-scoring affair. This could further support the likelihood of the game staying under the total points line.

Injury Impact

Injuries can significantly impact the outcome of preseason games, as teams often rest key players to avoid aggravating any existing issues. For the Cowboys, several players are listed as questionable, including linebacker Damone Clark and offensive lineman Chuma Edoga. Clark's absence could weaken the Cowboys' defensive front, making it easier for the Raiders to establish their running game. Edoga's injury, on the other hand, could impact the Cowboys' ability to protect Lance and create running lanes for their backs.

The Raiders also have key players listed as questionable, including offensive tackle Thayer Munford Jr. and wide receiver Jeff Foreman. Munford's absence could leave the Raiders' offensive line vulnerable, potentially allowing the Cowboys' pass rush to disrupt Minshew's rhythm. Foreman's injury could limit the Raiders' receiving options, forcing them to rely more heavily on their ground game.

Overall, the impact of these injuries will likely lead to more conservative game plans from both teams, further supporting the under as a potential outcome for this matchup.

Weather and Venue Impact

The game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, an indoor venue with a fast playing surface. While the controlled environment eliminates concerns about weather conditions, the fast surface could benefit both teams' running games, potentially leading to longer, sustained drives. However, if both teams focus on ball control and maintaining possession, the overall pace of the game could slow down, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities.

Additionally, the stadium's atmosphere can play a role in the game's dynamics. The Raiders' home crowd is known for its intensity, which could put pressure on the Cowboys, particularly on their young quarterback, Trey Lance. If the Raiders' defense can feed off the crowd's energy and create turnovers, it could lead to short fields and quick scores. However, if the Cowboys can withstand the pressure and control the tempo, the game is likely to remain low-scoring.

Coaching Strategy

Coaching strategies will also play a significant role in this matchup. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is known for his conservative approach during the preseason, focusing on evaluating talent and minimizing risks. McCarthy's game plan is likely to emphasize ball control, short passes, and a strong running game to keep the Raiders' offense off the field and protect Trey Lance.

On the other side, Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels is also likely to adopt a cautious approach, particularly with his quarterbacks. McDaniels' offense is expected to feature a mix of runs and short passes, designed to control the clock and avoid turnovers. This strategy will likely result in a methodical, low-scoring game, especially if both teams prioritize evaluation over aggressive play-calling.

Both coaches are likely to rotate in a large number of players, particularly in the second half, as they assess their depth charts. This rotation could lead to a slower pace of play, with fewer explosive plays and more defensive stops, further supporting the under as the recommended bet.

Advanced Metrics

Advanced metrics can provide additional insights into how this game might unfold. The Cowboys' offensive line, for example, has been strong in pass protection but has struggled in run blocking during the preseason. This could lead to difficulties in establishing the run against a Raiders defense that is expected to be aggressive. If the Cowboys are forced to rely on the passing game, Lance's inexperience could lead to mistakes, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

The Raiders' defense, on the other hand, has been effective in generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking highly in quarterback pressures and hurries during the preseason. If the Raiders can disrupt Lance and force turnovers, it could lead to a lower-scoring game, particularly if the Cowboys struggle to move the ball consistently.

Defensively, the Cowboys have excelled in limiting big plays, ranking among the top teams in preventing explosive plays during the preseason. This ability to limit chunk yardage could force the Raiders into longer, more methodical drives, which could also keep the score down.

Historical Context

Historically, games between the Cowboys and Raiders, even in the preseason, have been closely contested and often low-scoring. The two teams have met several times in the preseason over the past decade, with the majority of those games staying under the total points line. This trend is likely to continue, particularly given the current state of both teams and their focus on evaluation rather than high-scoring outcomes.

Both teams have a history of strong defensive play, particularly in the preseason, where they prioritize limiting opponents' scoring opportunities while evaluating their own roster depth. This emphasis on defense and conservative play-calling has contributed to a pattern of low-scoring games, further supporting the under as the recommended bet for this matchup.

Prediction

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