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NFL Week 3 Picks: Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts - Game Analysis

The Chicago Bears (1-1) travel to face the Indianapolis Colts (0-2) in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. This matchup takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, September 22, 2024, with a 10:00 AM kickoff. Both teams enter the game looking to build momentum, with the Bears aiming to get back on track after a loss to Houston and the Colts still searching for their first win of the season.

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chicago Bears (1-1)	+1 (-110)	O 43.5 (-115)	EVEN
Indianapolis Colts (0-2)	-1 (-110)	U 43.5 (-105)	-120

Team Analysis

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears, led by rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, have shown flashes of potential but have struggled with consistency. Williams has thrown for 267 yards with two interceptions over the first two games of the season, demonstrating some growing pains. The Bears' ground game has been relatively quiet, with Williams leading the team in rushing after just 10 carries for 59 yards. Wide receiver DJ Moore is the primary target, with 11 receptions for 89 yards, but the offense needs more explosiveness to support its young quarterback.

On defense, the Bears have been fairly solid, but injuries have begun to pile up. Key players such as Zacch Pickens and Khari Blasingame are out, weakening the front line and run defense. Their pass defense has held up better but will need to step up against a Colts offense that, despite being 0-2, has some talented playmakers.

Indianapolis Colts

Like Chicago, the Colts have a young quarterback leading their offense. Anthony Richardson has shown a mix of brilliance and recklessness in his first two starts. The rookie has thrown for 416 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. While the passing game has seen some deep threats emerge, like Alec Pierce (181 yards, 2 TDs), the Colts’ offensive success will depend heavily on their rushing attack. Jonathan Taylor remains their star player, having rushed for 151 yards on 28 carries, but has yet to explode for a big game.

Defensively, Indianapolis has shown promise but hasn’t been able to close out games. The team is allowing an average of 22.5 points per game, which isn’t terrible, but their offense has struggled to keep pace. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner’s absence will be a major blow to the unit’s ability to pressure Caleb Williams and contain Chicago’s rushing attack.

Coaches Analysis

Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears)

Matt Eberflus is in his second year with the Bears and brings a defensive-minded approach to the team. Known for his work as a coordinator in Indianapolis, Eberflus emphasizes discipline and toughness on defense. However, the offense under his tenure has been inconsistent, largely due to personnel transitions and the lack of a veteran quarterback. Eberflus will be looking to exploit the Colts’ defensive injuries while getting more out of Caleb Williams in Week 3.

Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts)

Shane Steichen, in his first season as head coach of the Colts, has worked closely with Anthony Richardson to fast-track his development. Steichen, who previously helped Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, has focused on a balanced offense that can adapt to the unique skills of Richardson. His ability to protect his young QB from making costly mistakes, while unleashing the run game, will be key in this matchup.

Recent Performance

Chicago Bears

• Week 1: Won 24-17 vs Tennessee Titans
• Week 2: Lost 19-13 vs Houston Texans

The Bears started the season strong with a win over the Tennessee Titans, showcasing a balanced offensive attack and solid defense. However, they stumbled in Week 2 against Houston, failing to capitalize on scoring opportunities and turning the ball over twice. Their offensive struggles were highlighted in this game, as they were unable to consistently move the chains against a middling Texans defense.

Indianapolis Colts

• Week 1: Lost 29-27 vs Houston Texans
• Week 2: Lost 16-10 vs Green Bay Packers

Despite starting the season 0-2, the Colts have shown flashes of competitive football, including a narrow loss to Houston in Week 1. In Week 2, however, their offensive inefficiencies were more pronounced against a stout Green Bay defense. Richardson’s turnovers have been a point of concern, as the team struggled to get much going against the Packers, particularly in the red zone.

Head-to-Head Comparison

These two teams rarely meet, given that they are in different conferences. However, when they do, their games tend to be competitive and hard-fought. The last time they faced each other was in 2020, when the Colts won a close game at Soldier Field, 19-11.

Both teams are dealing with young quarterbacks, but the Bears’ offense has looked slightly less dynamic compared to Indianapolis. The Colts' rushing attack with Jonathan Taylor provides a potential edge, but they haven’t been able to translate that into wins yet.

ATS Records

• Chicago Bears: 1-1 ATS in 2024
• Indianapolis Colts: 0-2 ATS in 2024

The Bears have covered the spread once this season, in their Week 1 win over Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Colts are 0-2 against the spread, failing to cover in both of their losses. This trend could influence how bettors perceive each team, especially given the tight -1 spread in favor of the Colts for this game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Colts' last 7 games.
• The Bears are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall, dating back to preseason.
• Chicago is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• The UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 6 Bears games against AFC teams.

Prediction