Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 18 (10/18): NFL Week 6

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 18 (10/18): NFL Week 6

  • Ajay
  • Ajay
  • Oct 17, 2021, 9:33:06 PM

Credit: photo by The Tennessean-USA TODAY Sports

Time 8:15 p.m. EST
Bills money line -222
Bills spread -5.5
Titans money line +215
Titans spread +6
Over / under 54


2021 season stats
  Bills Titans
Record 4-1 3-2
Road / home record 2-0 1-1
Points per game 34.4 26.4
Points allowed per game 12.8 26.8
Pass yards per game 270 221
Rush yards per game 140 168
Total yards per game 416 419
Total yards allowed per game 252 377
Turnover ratio +11 -3



Monday Night Football this week features an intriguing AFC matchup.  East leaders Buffalo Bills head to Nissan Stadium to play South leaders Tennessee Titans.  Bills are on a four-game winnings streak, snapping back immediately after losing their opener to Pittsburgh.  Among their wins are two shutouts; one down in Miami and the other at home to the Texans.  Their most impressive victory came last week against the reigning AFC champs the Chiefs.  The Bills are one of the most well-rounded teams in the league.  

The Titans are 3-2 after falling to the Cardinals in Week 1 and then an unprecedented OT loss to the Jets to give them their only win of the season so far.  Tennessee bounced back last week with a comprehensive victory of the Jaguars.  That victory put some distance between them and the chasing back in South.  The visiting Bills will give the Titans their toughest test of the season to date.

The last time these teams met was in Week 4 of the 2020 season also at Nissan Stadium.  The Titans ran over the Bills 42-16 to go 4-0 while handing the Bills their first loss of that season.

Offensive matchup

As great as the Bills have been offensively, their running game has been leaned heavily on Josh Allen.  As expected Allen is a top 10 QB in passing yards with 1,370 while adding 12 TDs and only 2 INTs.  He's also the Bills' second-leading rusher with 188 yards rushing.  Two of his 12 TDs have come on the ground.  Devin Singletary leads the backfield with 284 yards off 55 carries which ranks 20th in the NFL in rushing yards and he does so at an average of 5.4 yards per carry.  Singletary has only gotten into the end zone once this season.  Instead, Zack Moss who has 184 yards has three rushing TDs and one receiving.  Stefon Diggs once again is the teams' leading receiver on the season with 374 yards - 19th in the league - but has only gotten into the end zone on one occasion himself.  Dawson Knox has seen an uptick in his production.  Last week against the Chiefs he led the team 1ith 117 yards through the air and one TD.  Emmanuel Sanders who had been a welcomed addition to the offense had 54 yards off three receptions for two scores.  Kicker Tyler Bass is the league's highest scorer with 52 points.

The Titans were able to have one-half of their starting receiver duo back last week.  Julio Jones and A.J. Brown both missed the Week 4 loss to the Jets due to injuries.  Brown returned in Week 5 with 38 yards from three catches.  Marcus Johnson led the team with 52 yards off three catches as well.  Derrick Henry had a monster game once again rushing for 130 yards off 29 carries and three TDs.  Henry is the league's leading rusher with 640 yards through his first five games.  Julio Jones is cleared to play in Week 6, so the offensive should be back to full tilt.  Tennessee's offense ranks 11th in the league in yards.  Most of that is through their feature back Henry.  Their passing offense is 27th in the league with only 1,107 passing yards in five games.

Defensive matchup

Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier has made this defense the best in the league.  They did an outstanding job last week on schemes that paved the way to limiting the Chiefs offense to only 20 points; 2 TDs and 2 FGs.  The 21 points given up against the Football Team remain the highest score against this defense all season.  Micah Hyde's 3 INTs is the joint-second highest total only behind Trevon Diggs.  In Week 5 Mahomes was held to 272 yards completing 33 of 54 pass attempts for two TDs, two INTs and he was sacked twice.  Rousseau and Basham were the ones with a sack and half-sack, respectively.  Both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were held to less than 100 yards in the game and no Chiefs receiver had more than 100 yards.  In fact, the Bills have not allowed a hundred-yard rusher or receiver in any game this season.

The Titans' defense doesn't look as buttoned-up as was expecting coming into the season under Mike Vrabel.  Their passing defense is 21st in the league and rush defense is 17th.  The 19 points given up last week against the Jags was the second-best statistical return of the defense in five games.  The linebacking duo of David Long and Harold Landry lead the team in tackles; 29 and 28.  Those numbers don't even break into the top 65 in the league at the moment.  Safety Kevin Byard has 26 tackles.  They did limit Trevor Lawrence to one passing TD in Week 5 but allowed him a rushing TD.  Lawrence also had 273 yards from 23 completions from 33 attempts.  He was only sacked once.  James Robinson had 149 yards for Jacksonville in that game as well and a rushing TD.  


The Bills are undefeated on the road and are arguably the most impressive team on both sides of the ball this season.  Tennessee's offense still leans too heavily on Derrick Henry despite them adding Julio Jones to their receiving corps.  Jones is just coming back from an injury and Brown hasn't had the same impact as 2020.  Meanwhile, The Bills have found their balance even with an inconsistent running game.  An upset doesn't look likely on Monday night.

PICK: Bills (-5.5)

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