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NFL Preseason Game Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Over Under Prediction

Introduction

The NFL preseason is a critical period for teams as they prepare for the regular season. It provides an opportunity to evaluate player depth, integrate new talent, and refine strategies. For bettors, these games offer a unique angle, particularly when analyzing over/under totals. On Saturday, August 17, 2024, the Buffalo Bills will face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. This article will provide a detailed analysis of the matchup, focusing on whether the total points will exceed or fall short of the established betting line.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
Buffalo Bills	+2.5	+125	37.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	-2.5	-145	37.0

Team Analysis

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills come into the preseason with high expectations for the regular season, driven by their potent offense led by Josh Allen. However, in the preseason, the focus shifts to evaluating the depth behind Allen, including backups Matt Barkley and Kyle Allen. Both quarterbacks are experienced but are not known for generating high-scoring drives, which could lead to a more conservative approach in this matchup.

The Bills’ running game, led by James Cook and Damien Harris during the regular season, will feature backups like Latavius Murray and rookie Jordan Mims in this contest. The emphasis will likely be on establishing the run to control the tempo and limit turnovers, particularly with the second-string quarterbacks in play. This approach could result in longer drives but fewer points.

Defensively, the Bills are strong, particularly in the secondary, which is anchored by Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. However, with these key players seeing limited action, the focus will be on evaluating the depth behind them. The Bills’ pass rush, led by Von Miller, will also be a critical factor, as they look to disrupt the Steelers’ quarterbacks and keep the score low.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers, under head coach Mike Tomlin, are known for their disciplined, hard-nosed approach to the game. During the preseason, the team focuses on evaluating young talent and refining their strategies. Kenny Pickett, the presumed starting quarterback, will likely see limited action, with backups Mitch Trubisky and rookie Tanner Morgan expected to take most of the snaps. Trubisky is a seasoned veteran who can manage the game effectively, while Morgan is still developing, which suggests a conservative game plan focused on ball control.

The Steelers’ running game, featuring Najee Harris during the regular season, will likely rely on backups like Jaylen Warren and Anthony McFarland Jr. to carry the load. Pittsburgh’s offense under Tomlin has always emphasized the run game, particularly in the preseason, where the focus is on controlling the clock and minimizing mistakes. This could lead to a lower-scoring affair, especially if the Steelers are able to establish the run early.

Defensively, the Steelers are strong, particularly in the front seven, led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. However, with these stars seeing limited action, the preseason is a time to evaluate the depth behind them, particularly in the secondary. The Steelers’ defense is expected to play aggressively, which could lead to turnovers and short fields, but it could also limit the Bills’ ability to put up points.

Recent Performance

Recent preseason performances provide insight into how this game might unfold. The Bills have generally kept games close and low-scoring during the preseason, averaging just 19 points per game over their last five outings. This reflects their cautious approach, particularly with their second and third-string players, as the team focuses on evaluation rather than putting up points.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have seen similar results, averaging 20 points per game over their last five preseason contests. Their emphasis on the run game and defense under Tomlin has resulted in a methodical, controlled style of play that limits big plays and scoring opportunities. Given these trends, it’s likely that this game will also lean towards the under, especially if both teams stick to their usual preseason strategies.

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams head-to-head, particularly in a preseason context, several key factors stand out. The Bills, even with their dynamic offensive capabilities during the regular season, have typically been more conservative in preseason games, focusing on establishing the run and controlling the clock. This approach often leads to longer drives but fewer explosive plays, which can keep the score lower.

The Steelers, with their physical style and emphasis on defense, are also likely to keep the game low-scoring. Tomlin’s approach to the preseason is to focus on fundamentals, which means running the ball, controlling the clock, and playing sound defense. This strategy is likely to be effective against a Bills team that is also focused on evaluation rather than scoring points.

Defensively, both teams have strengths that could contribute to a lower-scoring game. The Bills’ secondary, even with backups in play, is capable of limiting the Steelers’ passing game, while the Steelers’ front seven will look to shut down the Bills’ run game, forcing them into passing situations where they might struggle to generate big plays.

Overall, this head-to-head comparison suggests a game that is more likely to stay under the total points line, given both teams’ conservative approaches and focus on defense.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records offer another perspective on how this game might unfold. The Bills have been a mixed bag ATS in the preseason, often covering the spread in low-scoring games. In their last five preseason games, they have covered the spread three times, reflecting their ability to keep games close, even if they are not high-scoring.

The Steelers, by contrast, have been relatively consistent ATS, covering in four of their last five preseason games. Their ability to control the pace of the game and play sound defense has made them a reliable bet in preseason matchups. However, their games have often stayed close, with lower scoring totals being the norm, further supporting the under as a potential outcome for this game.

These ATS trends suggest that while the Steelers may be slight favorites, the game is likely to be tightly contested, with both teams focusing on evaluation and ball control rather than putting up points.

Betting Stats and Trends

Betting stats and trends provide additional insights into how this game might unfold. For the Bills, the under has hit in four of their last five preseason games. This trend is consistent with their conservative approach under head coach Sean McDermott, who has emphasized physicality and ball control over explosive offensive play. This makes the under a strong consideration, particularly if the Bills are able to dictate the pace of the game.

The Steelers, however, have seen the under hit in three of their last five preseason games. This reflects their focus on defense and running the ball, both of which contribute to lower-scoring games. The Steelers’ strategy of controlling the clock and limiting mistakes is likely to keep the game’s scoring in check, making the under a plausible outcome.

Another factor to consider is the weather at Acrisure Stadium. The forecast for game day is mild, which should not significantly impact the game. However, the Steelers’ playing surface is known for being relatively slow, which could benefit both teams’ running games and lead to longer drives but fewer points.

Prediction