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NFL Preseason Game Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears Over Under Prediction

Introduction

The NFL preseason is more than just a warm-up for the regular season; it's a testing ground for new strategies, player evaluations, and depth chart decisions. For sports bettors, it also represents a unique opportunity to capitalize on over/under bets that might not be as sharply defined as regular season lines. On Saturday, August 17, 2024, the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears in what promises to be a compelling matchup. This article will thoroughly analyze the game, focusing on whether the total points will exceed or fall short of the betting line.

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total Points (O/U)
Cincinnati Bengals	+4.0	+160	37.5
Chicago Bears	-4.0	-190	37.5

Team Analysis

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals enter this preseason game with a focus on evaluating their depth, particularly at the quarterback position. Joe Burrow is the undisputed starter, but the battle for the backup role is ongoing, with Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning both vying for the spot. Siemian, with his veteran experience, is expected to manage the game efficiently but is not known for generating high-scoring drives. Browning, on the other hand, has flashed potential but remains inconsistent.

The Bengals' running game, led by Joe Mixon, is unlikely to see much action as the team protects its star players. Instead, backups like Chase Brown and Trayveon Williams will carry the load. Both have shown promise but are more likely to be used in short-yardage situations, further suggesting a conservative offensive game plan.

Defensively, the Bengals have been solid, particularly in the secondary, where they have a wealth of talent. However, the defensive line, which was a strength last season, will be rotating younger players in to see who can contribute in a backup role. This focus on evaluating depth on defense suggests that while the Bengals may allow some yards, they will likely tighten up in the red zone, making it difficult for the Bears to put up points.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are in the midst of a rebuild, with Justin Fields being groomed as the franchise quarterback. However, Fields' participation in the preseason is likely to be limited, with the coaching staff focusing more on backup quarterbacks P.J. Walker and Tyson Bagent. Walker has shown competence in moving the offense, though his style tends to lead to shorter drives and more field goal attempts than touchdowns.

The Bears' running game will be heavily featured, particularly with the depth they have at the position. Khalil Herbert is the presumptive starter, but in the preseason, the Bears will look to see what rookies like Roschon Johnson can offer. The running game is expected to be a focal point, especially if the weather conditions at Soldier Field call for a more ground-oriented approach.

Defensively, the Bears have a young but talented group, particularly in the secondary. Their pass rush is still a work in progress, but they have shown the ability to create turnovers, which could be pivotal in this game. If the Bears' defense can put the Bengals' backups under pressure, it could lead to a lower-scoring game, as both teams may struggle to sustain drives.

Recent Performance

Looking at recent preseason performances, the Bengals have not been particularly high-scoring. In their last five preseason games, they have averaged just 18 points per game. This is partly due to their cautious approach to preseason, focusing more on evaluation than winning. The offense, particularly with backup quarterbacks, has been serviceable but not explosive, leading to a tendency to hit the under in games where they are involved.

The Bears, similarly, have not been lighting up the scoreboard in preseason play. Over their last five preseason outings, they have averaged 20 points per game. Their offensive approach, under head coach Matt Eberflus, emphasizes ball control and avoiding turnovers, rather than pushing the tempo. This has resulted in several low-scoring affairs, particularly when facing disciplined defenses like that of the Bengals.

Given these recent performances, it is reasonable to expect a game that leans towards the under. Both teams have shown a preference for conservative play-calling, particularly in the early stages of the preseason, which limits the chances of a high-scoring game.

Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing these two teams head-to-head, particularly in preseason contexts, there are several key factors to consider. The Bengals and Bears have met in preseason several times over the past decade, with the majority of those games being low-scoring. This is largely due to the conservative game plans both teams typically employ during the preseason, where the focus is more on player evaluations and less on putting up points.

The Bengals' offense, even with their starters, is built around precision and efficiency rather than explosiveness. This philosophy carries over into the preseason, where they are more likely to run the ball and control the clock rather than take deep shots down the field. The Bears, under their current coaching staff, have adopted a similar approach, particularly with the development of Justin Fields being a priority. The coaching staff has shown a preference for keeping the game within reach, even if it means sacrificing offensive output.

Defensively, both teams have strengths that further suggest a lower-scoring game. The Bengals have a solid secondary that can limit big plays, while the Bears have an opportunistic defense that can create turnovers, potentially stopping drives before they result in points. These factors, when combined, suggest that this game is more likely to stay under the total points line.

ATS Records

Against-the-spread (ATS) records are another important metric to consider when analyzing potential outcomes for this game. The Bengals have been a mixed bag ATS in the preseason, with their conservative approach often leading to close games that don't cover large spreads. In their last five preseason games, the Bengals have covered the spread just twice, reflecting their tendency to keep games within a tight margin.

The Bears, on the other hand, have been slightly better ATS, covering in three of their last five preseason games. However, their games have also tended to stay close, with lower scoring totals being the norm. This suggests that while the Bears might be a good pick ATS, their games are less likely to go over the total points line.

These ATS trends further support the idea that this game will be a low-scoring affair. Both teams are likely to keep the game close, focusing on evaluations and ball control, which should result in fewer points overall.

Betting Stats and Trends

When analyzing betting stats and trends, particularly in the context of preseason games, both teams exhibit patterns that lean towards the under. For the Bengals, the under has hit in four of their last five preseason games. This trend is consistent with their cautious approach, particularly on offense, where they prioritize player evaluations over aggressive play-calling.

The Bears also have a strong trend towards the under, with the total going under in three of their last five preseason games. Their focus on developing their young quarterback, combined with a conservative offensive strategy, has resulted in several low-scoring games. This is especially true when playing against teams with strong defenses, like the Bengals.

Another factor to consider is the weather at Soldier Field on game day. While the forecast is for clear skies and mild temperatures, the infamous Chicago wind could still play a role, particularly in the passing game. If the wind picks up, both teams may lean even more on their running games, further reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring contest.

Prediction