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New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers Preseason Game Analysis - August 18, 2024

The NFL preseason continues as the New Orleans Saints head to Levi's Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers on August 18, 2024. Both teams have had contrasting starts to their preseason campaigns, with the Saints winning their opener and the 49ers coming off a loss. This game offers a critical opportunity for both teams to evaluate their rosters and build momentum heading into the regular season. This comprehensive analysis covers the latest odds, team performances, coaching strategies, and a prediction for the game.

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
New Orleans Saints	-2.5 (-115)	-150	Over 38.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers	+2.5 (-105)	+130	Under 38.5 (-110)

Team Analysis

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints started their preseason on a positive note with a narrow 16-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Quarterback Jake Haener led the Saints’ offense, completing 9-of-13 passes for 107 yards. Haener demonstrated solid decision-making and efficiency, which will be crucial as he continues to compete for a backup role. The Saints’ offense relied on short passes and methodical drives, but the lack of explosive plays could be a concern as they face a tough 49ers defense.

On the ground, J. Mims led the rushing attack with 38 yards on 10 carries. Mims showed good vision and the ability to gain tough yards, but the Saints’ overall rushing attack was relatively modest. A.T. Perry was the standout in the receiving corps, hauling in four catches for 85 yards. Perry’s ability to create separation and make plays downfield will be a key factor against a 49ers secondary that can be vulnerable to big plays.

Defensively, the Saints were solid, particularly in the red zone, where they held the Cardinals to just one touchdown on three trips. The pass rush was effective, recording three sacks, and the secondary played well, limiting the Cardinals to just 146 passing yards. However, the Saints have some injury concerns, with key defensive players like Marshon Lattimore and Demario Davis listed as questionable. The Saints will need their depth players to step up, particularly on defense, to maintain their strong preseason performance.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a 17-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans in their preseason opener. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs led the 49ers’ offense, completing 14-of-20 passes for 146 yards, but he also threw an interception. Dobbs showed good command of the offense and an ability to move the ball efficiently, but the turnover and lack of scoring were concerns. The 49ers will be looking for Dobbs to clean up his mistakes and convert drives into points as they take on the Saints.

The 49ers’ rushing attack was led by J. Mason, who carried the ball six times for 34 yards and a touchdown. Mason’s ability to find running lanes and make defenders miss will be crucial against a Saints defense that has been strong against the run. In the receiving game, T. Martin led the way with five catches for 58 yards. Martin’s route-running and ability to gain yards after the catch make him a key player to watch as the 49ers look to improve their offensive output.

Defensively, the 49ers had a mixed performance. While they were able to generate pressure on the quarterback and recorded two sacks, they struggled in pass coverage, allowing 204 passing yards. The 49ers have some injury concerns, particularly in the secondary, with cornerback Ambry Thomas and safety Talanoa Hufanga both dealing with issues. The 49ers will need a more disciplined performance on defense to contain the Saints’ passing attack and avoid falling to 0-2 in the preseason.

Coaching Analysis

New Orleans Saints - Dennis Allen

Dennis Allen, the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, is known for his defensive expertise and leadership. Now in his second season as the Saints’ head coach, Allen has focused on building a tough, disciplined defense that can compete at a high level. In the preseason, Allen’s emphasis has been on evaluating the depth of his roster and ensuring that his team is prepared for the regular season. Allen will be looking for a more consistent performance from his offense, particularly in converting drives into points, as the Saints continue to fine-tune their approach.

San Francisco 49ers - Kyle Shanahan

Kyle Shanahan, the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, is widely regarded as one of the top offensive minds in the NFL. Shanahan has built a reputation for developing creative and effective offensive schemes that maximize the talents of his players. In the preseason, Shanahan’s focus has been on evaluating his quarterbacks and ensuring that the 49ers’ offense is operating at a high level. However, the 49ers’ struggles in the red zone and on defense in their preseason opener will be areas of focus as Shanahan looks to lead his team to a win against the Saints.

Recent Performance

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints have had a strong run of form, winning four of their last five games, including both the regular season and the preseason. The Saints’ defense has been the foundation of their recent success, consistently shutting down opposing offenses and creating turnovers. However, the offense has been more inconsistent, particularly in the red zone, where they have struggled to convert opportunities into points.

The Saints’ ability to control the tempo of the game with their defense and make timely plays on offense has been key to their recent success. With several key players listed as questionable, the Saints will need their depth players to step up and contribute. The focus will be on improving their offensive execution, particularly in the red zone, as they prepare for the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have had a mixed record over their last five games, including both the regular season and the preseason. After finishing the 2023 season with a loss in the Super Bowl, the 49ers started the 2024 preseason with a close loss to the Titans. The 49ers’ defense has been solid, particularly in generating pressure on the quarterback, but the offense has been inconsistent, particularly in converting drives into points.

The 49ers’ ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball has been a key factor in their success. However, with several key players dealing with injuries, the 49ers will need to rely on their depth and make adjustments to continue their winning ways. The focus will be on improving their offensive execution, particularly in the red zone, as they prepare for the regular season.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers have faced each other frequently in recent years, with their last regular-season meeting coming in 2022, a game the 49ers won 13-0. Historically, the 49ers have had the upper hand in the series, winning three of the last five meetings. However, preseason games are less about historical records and more about evaluating current rosters and schemes.

In this matchup, the Saints appear to have the edge, particularly on defense, where they have shown more consistency and playmaking ability. The 49ers will need a strong performance from their quarterbacks and skill position players to keep up with the Saints, particularly in the passing game, where they have struggled. Both teams have areas of concern, particularly in the red zone and pass coverage, making this an intriguing and closely contested matchup.

ATS Records

In the 2023 regular season, the New Orleans Saints were 9-8 against the spread (ATS), including a 5-3 ATS record on the road. The Saints have been a reliable team to bet on, particularly in close games where their defense has kept them in contention. Their preseason opener against the Cardinals was another strong showing, as they covered the spread with a narrow victory.

The San Francisco 49ers were 11-7 ATS in the 2023 season, including a 6-4 ATS record at home. The 49ers have been one of the more consistent teams against the spread, particularly in games where they have been favored. However, their preseason opener against the Titans was a disappointment, as they failed to cover the spread and struggled to generate any offense. The spread for this game, with the Saints favored by 2.5 points, reflects the confidence in their ability to continue their winning ways.

Betting Stats and Trends

New Orleans Saints

• The Saints are 1-0 ATS in the 2024 preseason, covering the spread against the Arizona Cardinals.
• New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, including the regular season.
• The total has gone under in three of the Saints' last five games, including preseason and regular season.
• The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last six games as a favorite.

San Francisco 49ers

• The 49ers are 0-1 ATS in the 2024 preseason, failing to cover the spread against the Tennessee Titans.
• San Francisco is 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall, including the regular season.
• The total has gone under in four of the 49ers' last five games, including preseason and regular season.
• The 49ers have covered the spread in just three of their last six games as an underdog.

Player Spotlight

New Orleans Saints - Jake Haener

Jake Haener, the Saints’ rookie quarterback, had a strong performance in the preseason opener, completing 9-of-13 passes for 107 yards. Haener’s ability to manage the game and make smart decisions will be crucial as the Saints look to continue their winning ways. With the Saints’ running game providing balance, Haener will need to manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers to ensure a successful outing against the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers - Joshua Dobbs

Joshua Dobbs, the 49ers’ quarterback, had a mixed performance in the preseason opener, throwing for 146 yards but also tossing an interception. Dobbs is competing for a backup role, and his ability to bounce back from a disappointing performance will be key in this game. Dobbs will need to improve his accuracy and decision-making to help the 49ers’ offense find some rhythm and put points on the board against a tough Saints defense.

Injury Impact

Injuries could play a significant role in this game, particularly for the New Orleans Saints, who have several key players listed as questionable. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore and linebacker Demario Davis are both important contributors, and their absence could impact the Saints on both sides of the ball. Without Lattimore and Davis, the Saints’ defense could be less effective in stopping the pass and pressuring the quarterback.

The San Francisco 49ers are also dealing with injuries, particularly in the secondary, where cornerback Ambry Thomas and safety Talanoa Hufanga are both questionable. Hufanga is a key player in the 49ers’ secondary, and his absence would leave a significant void in the defense. Additionally, the absence of Thomas could weaken the 49ers’ pass coverage, which would impact their ability to defend against the Saints’ passing attack. The coaching staff will need to make adjustments and rely on their depth to maintain their competitive edge.

Weather and Venue Impact

The weather for this game is expected to be mild, with temperatures around 77 degrees in Santa Clara, CA. Levi’s Stadium, home of the San Francisco 49ers, is an outdoor venue, and the comfortable weather conditions should not play a significant role in the game. The 49ers, who are used to playing in mild weather, will look to use their home-field advantage to build momentum and put on a strong performance for their fans.

Levi’s Stadium is known for its passionate fan base, and even during the preseason, the atmosphere can be challenging for visiting teams. The Saints will need to stay focused and execute their game plan despite the challenging conditions and the hostile crowd. The 49ers will be looking to leverage their home-field advantage to bounce back from their preseason opener loss and secure a win.

Historical Context

The New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers have a long-standing rivalry, with their last regular-season meeting coming in 2022, a game the 49ers won 13-0 in a dominant defensive performance. Historically, the 49ers have had the edge in the series, winning three of the last five meetings, but the Saints have been competitive in most of these matchups.

This preseason game provides both teams with an opportunity to evaluate their rosters and build momentum for the regular season. While the outcome of the game may not carry the same weight as a regular-season matchup, the performances in this game could have implications for future meetings. Both teams will be looking to gain an edge as they prepare for the challenges ahead in the 2024 season.

Prediction