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NCAAF Spread Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Colorado State Rams

The 2024 college football season kicks off with a highly anticipated matchup between the Texas Longhorns and the Colorado State Rams on Saturday, August 31, 2024. The game will take place at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, with a 12:30 PM EST kickoff. Texas enters the season ranked No. 4 in the nation and is heavily favored in this contest, with the spread set at -33.5 points. The Longhorns are looking to make a statement in their season opener as they prepare for their first season in the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Meanwhile, Colorado State, coming off a disappointing 2023 season, will face a daunting challenge in trying to keep the game competitive. 

 

Game Information

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
• Time: 12:30 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ESPN
• Line: Texas -33.5

Texas Longhorns: Championship Aspirations

The Texas Longhorns enter the 2024 season with sky-high expectations, both from within the program and from the national media. Ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Poll, Texas is aiming for a College Football Playoff (CFP) berth and a potential national championship run. Head Coach Steve Sarkisian, now in his fourth season in Austin, has assembled one of the most talented rosters in the country, filled with blue-chip recruits and impact transfers. The Longhorns finished the 2023 season with a 12-2 record, capped by a Big 12 Championship and a close loss to Washington in the Rose Bowl. With the move to the SEC looming, Texas is eager to prove they belong among the elite programs in college football.

Offensively, Texas is led by junior quarterback Quinn Ewers, who returns after a breakout sophomore season in which he threw for 3,827 yards and 33 touchdowns. Ewers is a prototypical pocket passer with a strong arm and excellent accuracy. He will have no shortage of weapons at his disposal, including wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Neyor, both of whom are explosive playmakers capable of stretching the field. Worthy, in particular, is a dynamic threat, having recorded 1,102 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns last season. The running game will feature a committee approach, with Jonathon Brooks and Jaydon Blue expected to share the workload after the departure of Bijan Robinson to the NFL. The offensive line, anchored by All-American tackle Kelvin Banks, is one of the best in the country and should provide Ewers with ample time to distribute the ball to his playmakers.

Defensively, the Longhorns are stacked with talent at all three levels. The defensive line, led by edge rusher Ethan Burke, is capable of generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzing. Linebacker Jaylan Ford, who led the team with 102 tackles last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by All-American cornerback Terrance Brooks, is a deep and talented group that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays. Texas’ defense will look to stifle Colorado State’s offense and keep the Rams from gaining any momentum.

Colorado State Rams: Rebuilding on the Horizon

The Colorado State Rams are coming off a disappointing 4-8 season in 2023, their second under head coach Jay Norvell. The Rams struggled in nearly every phase of the game, particularly on offense, where they averaged just 21.4 points per game. As they head into the 2024 season, Colorado State is in the midst of a rebuilding process, with a focus on developing young talent and improving their overall competitiveness. The Rams face a tough challenge in their season opener against Texas, as they look to avoid a blowout and show signs of progress.

Offensively, the Rams will be led by sophomore quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who took over as the starter midway through last season. Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 1,875 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023, but also struggled with consistency, throwing 10 interceptions. The running game will be anchored by Avery Morrow, who rushed for 925 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. Morrow is a physical runner with good vision, capable of grinding out tough yards between the tackles. The receiving corps features Tory Horton, who led the team with 70 receptions for 988 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Horton is a reliable target with good size and the ability to make plays in traffic. The offensive line, however, remains a concern, as the Rams allowed 46 sacks last season, one of the highest totals in the FBS. Colorado State’s ability to protect Fowler-Nicolosi and establish the run will be critical if they hope to keep the game within the spread.

Defensively, Colorado State allowed 28.6 points per game last season, ranking 9th in the Mountain West Conference. The defensive line, led by defensive end Mohamed Kamara, is capable of generating pressure, but the Rams struggled to stop the run, allowing 184.7 rushing yards per game. Linebacker Dequan Jackson, who recorded 87 tackles and 4 sacks last season, is a key playmaker who will need to step up against Texas’ potent offense. The secondary, anchored by cornerback Chigozie Anusiem, is a solid group that will be tested by Texas’ high-powered passing attack. Colorado State’s defense will need to play a near-perfect game to slow down the Longhorns and keep the game within the spread.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Texas Longhorns

• Offensive Efficiency: Texas ranked 5th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Longhorns averaged 6.8 yards per play and were highly effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 73% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Texas ranked 9th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 319.4 yards per game. The Longhorns’ defense was particularly strong against the pass, holding opponents to 195.3 passing yards per game.
• Turnover Margin: Texas finished the 2023 season with a +10 turnover margin, ranking 12th in the FBS. The Longhorns’ ability to protect the football and create takeaways was a key factor in their success.

Colorado State Rams

• Offensive Efficiency: Colorado State ranked 101st in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Rams averaged 4.8 yards per play and struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 54% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Colorado State ranked 91st in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 406.3 yards per game. The Rams’ defense struggled against both the run and the pass, ranking in the bottom half of the Mountain West in both categories.
• Turnover Margin: Colorado State finished the 2023 season with a -3 turnover margin, ranking 90th in the FBS. The Rams’ inability to protect the football and create takeaways was a significant factor in their struggles.

Coaching Analysis

Steve Sarkisian (Texas)

Steve Sarkisian is entering his fourth season as the head coach of the Texas Longhorns, and he has quickly established himself as one of the top offensive minds in college football. Sarkisian, who previously served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama, is known for his ability to develop quarterbacks and create dynamic, high-scoring offenses. Under Sarkisian’s leadership, Texas has become one of the most explosive teams in the country, with a focus on balance, efficiency, and big plays. In this matchup, Sarkisian will look to use his team’s talent, depth, and experience to dominate Colorado State and cover the spread.

Offensively, Sarkisian’s teams are known for their versatility and creativity, with a mix of pro-style concepts and spread elements. Defensively, Sarkisian has emphasized physicality, discipline, and the ability to create pressure on the quarterback. In this matchup, Sarkisian will look to exploit Colorado State’s weaknesses on both sides of the ball and build a comfortable lead early.

Jay Norvell (Colorado State)

Jay Norvell is entering his third season as the head coach of the Colorado State Rams, and he is focused on rebuilding a program that has struggled in recent years. Norvell, who previously served as the head coach at Nevada, is known for his ability to develop quarterbacks and create efficient, balanced offenses. Under Norvell’s leadership, Colorado State has shown some signs of improvement, but the program remains a work in progress. In this matchup, Norvell will look to use his team’s physicality and discipline to challenge Texas and keep the game within the spread.

Offensively, Norvell’s teams are known for their balance and efficiency, with a focus on ball control and minimizing mistakes. Defensively, Norvell emphasizes stopping the run and creating pressure on the quarterback, with a focus on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers. In this matchup, Norvell will need to devise a game plan that can slow down Texas’ high-powered offense and give Colorado State a chance to stay competitive.

Recent Performance

Texas Longhorns

Texas finished the 2023 season with a 12-2 record, including an 8-1 mark in Big 12 play. The Longhorns’ season was highlighted by a 49-21 victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game, in which their offense executed efficiently and their defense made key stops. Texas also recorded a 57-7 win over Texas Tech, showcasing their ability to dominate inferior opponents and pull off impressive victories. However, the Longhorns also suffered a tough 37-31 loss to Washington in the Rose Bowl, ending their season on a disappointing note.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Texas lost to Washington 37-31 in the Rose Bowl. The game was marked by defensive breakdowns and missed opportunities, as the Longhorns were unable to contain Washington’s high-powered offense. Quinn Ewers threw for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Xavier Worthy added 135 receiving yards and 2 scores. Texas’ balanced attack and aggressive defense will be key factors in their bid to cover the spread against Colorado State.

Colorado State Rams

Colorado State ended the 2023 season with a 4-8 record, including a 2-6 mark in Mountain West play. The Rams’ season was highlighted by a 30-20 victory over Nevada, in which their defense held strong and their offense executed efficiently. Colorado State also recorded a 22-19 win over San Diego State, showcasing their ability to compete in close games and pull off impressive victories. However, the Rams also suffered several tough losses, including a 27-24 defeat to Hawaii and a 30-13 loss to Air Force.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Colorado State lost to Hawaii 27-24. The game was marked by defensive breakdowns and missed opportunities, as the Rams were unable to contain Hawaii’s balanced offense. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Avery Morrow added 89 rushing yards and a score. Colorado State’s balanced attack and aggressive defense will be key factors in their bid to cover the spread against Texas.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first meeting between Texas and Colorado State in recent memory, and the Longhorns are heavily favored to win. Texas, as a top-5 program with significant advantages in size, speed, and depth, enters the game as the overwhelming favorite against a Colorado State team that is still in the rebuilding phase. The key to this game will likely be Texas’ ability to exploit their advantages in physicality and playmaking ability, particularly on offense. If the Longhorns can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and cover the spread.

Colorado State’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Texas. The Rams will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, Colorado State has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their offensive playmakers could help contribute to a closer game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. They have shown the ability to cover large spreads, particularly when facing teams with less depth and talent.
• Colorado State Rams: The Rams are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. They have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly when facing teams with superior talent and depth.
• Head-to-Head: This will be the first meeting between Texas and Colorado State in recent memory, and Texas is heavily favored to win and cover the spread.

Weather and Venue Considerations

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, provides a significant home-field advantage for the Texas Longhorns. The weather forecast for August 31st calls for temperatures in the low 90s with clear skies, typical for late summer in central Texas. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Texas.

The home-field advantage of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, coupled with the experienced leadership of Steve Sarkisian, will be a factor in favor of Texas. The Longhorns have a strong record in season openers, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Colorado State. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from outside the Power Five conferences like Colorado State.

Prediction