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Picks for NCAA Football: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview

The Purdue Boilermakers are set to face off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what promises to be a thrilling contest on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The game, scheduled for 12:30 PM at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana, will be broadcast on CBS/Paramount+. This matchup features a Notre Dame team that has experienced early-season highs and lows, going 1-1 in its first two games, and a Purdue team that comes into the game undefeated after a dominant opening-week performance.

 

Game Information

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Time: 12:30 PM ET
• Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
• Coverage: CBS/Paramount+
• Weather: 88°F, partly cloudy
• Line: Notre Dame -7.5
• Over/Under: 47.5

Team Analysis

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue enters this contest with momentum on its side following a convincing 49-0 victory over Indiana State in Week 1. The Boilermakers showcased a balanced offensive attack and a staunch defense that stifled their opponent, setting the tone for what they hope will be a successful season. Quarterback Hudson Card was nearly flawless in his debut, completing 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns, displaying poise and accuracy that will be crucial against a tough Notre Dame defense.

The running game was also effective, led by Devin Mockobee, who racked up 89 yards on 11 carries. Purdue's offensive line dominated the line of scrimmage, giving Card plenty of time to survey the field and opening up running lanes for Mockobee and others. Wide receiver Mershawn Rice emerged as a reliable target, hauling in 5 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. With a solid foundation in both the passing and running games, Purdue’s offense appears well-rounded and capable of putting up points against a Notre Dame defense that has shown some vulnerability.

Defensively, the Boilermakers were relentless, recording 7 sacks and holding Indiana State to just 120 total yards. The defensive line, anchored by Branson Deen and Kydran Jenkins, consistently disrupted the opposing backfield, while the secondary, led by cornerback Jamari Brown, limited passing opportunities. This defense will need to replicate that performance to keep Notre Dame’s offense in check, particularly against their talented running backs and deep receiving corps.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame started the season with a hard-fought 23-13 victory over Texas A&M on the road but followed it up with a disappointing 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish have struggled to find consistency, particularly on offense, where quarterback Riley Leonard has yet to find his rhythm. Leonard has thrown for 321 yards with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns, a stark contrast to the efficient performances expected from him after a strong 2023 campaign.

The ground game has been the bright spot for Notre Dame, with running back Jadarian Price leading the way. Price has amassed 170 rushing yards on 25 carries, finding the end zone twice. His combination of speed and power makes him a threat to break off big plays, but he will need help from his offensive line, which has been inconsistent in pass protection. If Leonard can’t get the passing game going, Price will likely face stacked boxes, making it difficult to replicate his early success.

Defensively, Notre Dame has been solid, if not spectacular. The front seven, led by defensive lineman Rylie Mills and linebacker Marist Liufau, has been effective in stopping the run but has struggled to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, anchored by safety Xavier Watts, has been decent but allowed too many big plays in crucial moments, particularly against Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish will need a complete team effort to contain Purdue’s dynamic offense and avoid falling to 1-2 on the season.

Player Spotlights

Purdue Boilermakers: Hudson Card

Hudson Card’s near-perfect performance in Week 1 was a revelation for Purdue fans and a warning to the rest of the Big Ten. Card’s ability to make quick decisions and deliver accurate throws has made him the focal point of Purdue’s offense. His chemistry with his receivers, particularly Mershawn Rice, will be critical in this matchup. If Card can continue to spread the ball around and avoid turnovers, Purdue’s offense could give Notre Dame’s defense fits.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Jadarian Price

Jadarian Price has been the most consistent performer on Notre Dame’s offense thus far. His ability to find holes and make defenders miss in the open field has been a key factor in the Fighting Irish’s ground game success. With the passing game struggling, Price will likely be leaned on heavily to carry the offense. His performance will be crucial in determining whether Notre Dame can control the clock and keep Purdue’s offense off the field.

Coaching Analysis

Purdue: Ryan Walters

In his first season as Purdue's head coach, Ryan Walters has already instilled a sense of discipline and aggression in his team. A former defensive coordinator, Walters has brought a defensive-minded approach to the Boilermakers, which was evident in their Week 1 shutout victory. His ability to motivate his players and make in-game adjustments will be tested against a more experienced Notre Dame team. Walters’ game plan will likely focus on exploiting Notre Dame’s offensive struggles while using Card’s accuracy to attack the Fighting Irish’s secondary.

Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman

Marcus Freeman is in his third season as Notre Dame’s head coach, and the pressure is on for him to deliver after a disappointing 2023 season. Freeman, known for his defensive acumen, has struggled to get the most out of his offense, which has been a point of concern for Notre Dame fans. His challenge will be to find a way to jumpstart the passing game while maintaining the effectiveness of the run. Defensively, Freeman will need to devise a strategy to slow down Purdue’s quick-hitting offense and prevent them from gaining momentum early.

Recent Performance

Purdue’s recent form has been encouraging, especially after their dominant Week 1 performance. The Boilermakers looked sharp in all phases of the game, showcasing a balanced offense and a relentless defense. Purdue's offense was able to strike a perfect balance between the run and the pass, which kept the defense guessing and allowed them to exploit mismatches.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, has had a mixed start to the season. While their defense held strong against Texas A&M, their offense was far from convincing. The loss to Northern Illinois exposed several weaknesses, particularly in the passing game, where Leonard struggled to find his receivers. The Fighting Irish will need to clean up these issues quickly if they hope to avoid a second consecutive loss.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Historically, Notre Dame has dominated the rivalry with Purdue, holding a significant lead in the all-time series. However, the Boilermakers have pulled off some memorable upsets in the past, particularly when playing at home in West Lafayette. The last meeting between these two teams in 2023 resulted in a comfortable win for Notre Dame, but the gap between the two programs has narrowed, especially with Purdue’s recent rise under Walters.

In terms of offense, Purdue appears to have the edge, especially with Card’s accuracy and the balance they’ve shown in their play-calling. Notre Dame’s defense, while solid, has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in pass defense, which Purdue could exploit. On the defensive side, Notre Dame’s front seven will need to dominate the line of scrimmage and force Purdue into passing situations where they can generate pressure on Card.

Advanced Metrics

Offensive Efficiency

Purdue ranks among the top 20 in offensive efficiency after Week 1, averaging over 6.5 yards per play. The Boilermakers have been particularly effective on third down, converting 65% of their attempts. Their ability to sustain drives and keep the defense off balance has been a hallmark of their early success.

Notre Dame, by contrast, has struggled to find consistency on offense, ranking in the middle of the pack nationally. Their third-down conversion rate is just 42%, and they have been prone to turnovers, particularly in the passing game. If these issues persist, it could spell trouble against a Purdue defense that thrives on creating pressure and forcing mistakes.

Defensive Efficiency

Defensively, Purdue has been one of the most disruptive teams in the country, ranking in the top 10 in sacks per game. Their ability to generate pressure without blitzing has allowed them to drop more players into coverage, which has been effective in limiting big plays. The Boilermakers have also been stout against the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry.

Notre Dame’s defense has been solid but not spectacular. They rank in the top 30 in total defense, but their inability to create turnovers has been a concern. The Fighting Irish have only forced one turnover in two games, and they will need to be more opportunistic if they hope to contain Purdue’s offense.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Purdue: The Boilermakers are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games as underdogs.
• Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games.
• Over/Under: The total has gone UNDER in five of Purdue’s last seven games against Notre Dame.
• Head-to-Head: Notre Dame is 8-2 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games against Purdue, but Purdue is 6-4 ATS in those matchups.

 

Prediction