© David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

 

NCAAF Spread Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

The 2024 college football season features a highly anticipated matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday, August 31, 2024. The game will be held at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia, with a 9:00 AM EST kickoff. Penn State, coming off a strong 2023 campaign, enters this contest as the favorite, with the spread set at -7.5 points. However, West Virginia, looking to build on a solid finish to last season, will be eager to defend their home turf and keep the game close. 

 

Game Information

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
• Time: 9:00 AM EST
• TV Coverage: FOX
• Line: Penn State -7.5

West Virginia Mountaineers: Momentum from a Strong Finish

The West Virginia Mountaineers finished the 2023 season on a high note, winning their last four games, including a dominant 30-10 victory over North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Head Coach Neal Brown, entering his sixth season at West Virginia, has quietly built a resilient team that thrives on physical play and disciplined execution. With a veteran roster and the confidence gained from last season’s strong finish, the Mountaineers are poised to give Penn State a tough challenge in their season opener.

Offensively, the Mountaineers will be led by senior quarterback Garrett Greene, who took over as the starter midway through last season and helped turn the team’s fortunes around. Greene threw for 2,364 yards and 20 touchdowns while adding 622 yards and 8 scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability makes him a dangerous playmaker and a key figure in West Virginia’s attack. The running game is anchored by CJ Donaldson, who rushed for 987 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. Donaldson is a powerful runner with good vision, capable of breaking tackles and gaining tough yards between the tackles.

The receiving corps features Kaden Prather, who led the team with 65 receptions for 849 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. Prather is a reliable target with good size and the ability to make plays in traffic. Tight end Kole Taylor, a transfer from LSU, provides another weapon in the passing game, particularly in the red zone. The offensive line, led by All-Big 12 guard Doug Nester, is an experienced unit that excels in both pass protection and run blocking. West Virginia’s ability to control the line of scrimmage will be crucial in their bid to cover the spread against Penn State’s aggressive defense.

Defensively, the Mountaineers made significant strides last season, allowing just 23.1 points per game, which ranked fourth in the Big 12. The defensive line, led by Dante Stills, is capable of generating pressure and disrupting opposing offenses. Linebacker Lee Kpogba, who recorded 102 tackles and 5 sacks last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by cornerback Beanie Bishop, is a talented group that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays. West Virginia’s defense will be crucial in their bid to contain Penn State’s high-powered offense and keep the game within the spread.

Penn State Nittany Lions: Reloaded and Ready to Contend

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off an impressive 11-2 season in 2023, which included a dominant 42-0 victory over Michigan State and an appearance in the Citrus Bowl. Head Coach James Franklin, now in his 11th season at Penn State, has consistently fielded competitive teams, and the Nittany Lions are once again expected to contend for a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff spot. Penn State enters this matchup with a deep and talented roster, and they will be looking to start the season with a statement win on the road.

Offensively, the Nittany Lions are led by junior quarterback Drew Allar, who threw for 2,847 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Allar is a big, strong-armed quarterback with the ability to make all the throws, and he will be the focal point of Penn State’s offense. The running game is powered by Nick Singleton, who rushed for 1,112 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023. Singleton is a dynamic runner with breakaway speed, capable of turning any play into a big gain. The receiving corps features KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who caught 55 passes for 862 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Lambert-Smith’s speed and route-running ability make him a dangerous weapon in the passing game. The offensive line, anchored by All-American tackle Olu Fashanu, is one of the best in the Big Ten and will be key in protecting Allar and opening running lanes for Singleton.

Defensively, Penn State continues to be one of the top units in the country, allowing just 15.3 points per game last season, which ranked second in the Big Ten. The defensive line, led by defensive end Chop Robinson, is capable of generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzing, allowing the secondary to play tight coverage. Linebacker Abdul Carter, who recorded 94 tackles and 6 sacks last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by cornerback Kalen King, is a talented group that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays. Penn State’s defense will look to impose their will on West Virginia and keep the Mountaineers’ offense in check.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Offensive Efficiency: West Virginia ranked 40th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Mountaineers averaged 5.9 yards per play and were highly effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 65% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: West Virginia ranked 48th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 362.7 yards per game. The Mountaineers’ defense was particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to 135.1 rushing yards per game.
• Turnover Margin: West Virginia finished the 2023 season with a +5 turnover margin, ranking 35th in the FBS. The Mountaineers’ ability to protect the football and create takeaways was a key factor in their success.

Penn State Nittany Lions

• Offensive Efficiency: Penn State ranked 12th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Nittany Lions averaged 6.4 yards per play and were highly effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 72% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Penn State ranked 3rd in Defensive Efficiency, allowing just 278.5 yards per game. The Nittany Lions’ defense was particularly strong against the pass, holding opponents to 173.4 passing yards per game.
• Turnover Margin: Penn State finished the 2023 season with a +9 turnover margin, ranking 14th in the FBS. The Nittany Lions’ ability to protect the football and create takeaways was a key factor in their success.

Coaching Analysis

Neal Brown (West Virginia)

Neal Brown is entering his sixth season as the head coach of the West Virginia Mountaineers, and he has steadily built a program that is competitive in the Big 12. Brown, who previously served as the head coach at Troy, is known for his ability to develop talent and create disciplined, well-coached teams. Under Brown’s leadership, West Virginia has become a team that is tough to beat, particularly at home. In this matchup, Brown will look to use his team’s physicality, depth, and experience to challenge Penn State and cover the spread.

Offensively, Brown’s teams are balanced and efficient, with a strong running game complemented by a dynamic passing attack. Defensively, Brown emphasizes stopping the run and creating pressure on the quarterback, with a focus on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers. In this matchup, Brown will look to use his team’s physicality, depth, and experience to challenge Penn State and cover the spread.

James Franklin (Penn State)

James Franklin is entering his 11th season as the head coach of the Penn State Nittany Lions, and he has consistently fielded competitive teams that contend for Big Ten titles and New Year’s Six bowl games. Franklin, who previously served as the head coach at Vanderbilt, is known for his recruiting prowess and ability to develop talent. Under Franklin’s leadership, Penn State has become one of the premier programs in the Big Ten, with a focus on physical, disciplined play.

Offensively, Franklin’s teams are balanced and efficient, with a strong running game complemented by a dynamic passing attack. Defensively, Franklin emphasizes stopping the run and creating pressure on the quarterback, with a focus on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers. In this matchup, Franklin will look to use his team’s physicality, depth, and experience to dominate West Virginia and cover the spread.

Recent Performance

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia finished the 2023 season with an 8-5 record, including a 5-4 mark in Big 12 play. The Mountaineers’ season was highlighted by a 30-10 victory over North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, in which their defense held strong and their offense executed efficiently. West Virginia also recorded a 34-31 win over Baylor, showcasing their ability to compete in close games and pull off impressive victories. However, the Mountaineers also suffered some tough losses, including a 59-20 defeat to Oklahoma and a 31-27 loss to Texas Tech.

In their final game of the 2023 season, West Virginia defeated North Carolina 30-10 in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The game was marked by defensive dominance and offensive efficiency, as the Mountaineers controlled the clock and limited North Carolina’s offensive opportunities. Garrett Greene threw for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns, while CJ Donaldson added 98 rushing yards and a score. West Virginia’s balanced attack and aggressive defense will be key factors in their bid to cover the spread against Penn State.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State ended the 2023 season with an 11-2 record, including a 7-2 mark in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions’ season was highlighted by a 42-0 victory over Michigan State, in which their defense pitched a shutout and their offense executed efficiently. Penn State also recorded a 51-15 win over Maryland, showcasing their ability to dominate inferior opponents and pull off impressive victories. However, the Nittany Lions also suffered a disappointing 38-25 loss to Ole Miss in the Citrus Bowl, ending their season on a sour note.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Penn State lost to Ole Miss 38-25 in the Citrus Bowl. The game was marked by defensive breakdowns and missed opportunities, as the Nittany Lions were unable to contain Ole Miss’s high-powered offense. Drew Allar threw for 285 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Nick Singleton added 112 rushing yards and a score. Penn State’s balanced attack and aggressive defense will be key factors in their bid to cover the spread against West Virginia.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks another meeting between West Virginia and Penn State, though the Nittany Lions have historically had the upper hand. Penn State, as a Big Ten powerhouse with significant advantages in size, speed, and depth, enters the game as the favorite against a West Virginia team that is still finding its footing in the Big 12. The key to this game will likely be Penn State’s ability to exploit their advantages in physicality and playmaking ability, particularly on offense. If the Nittany Lions can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and cover the spread.

West Virginia’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Penn State. The Mountaineers will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, West Virginia has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their offensive playmakers could help contribute to a closer game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games against Power Five opponents. They have shown the ability to cover large spreads, particularly when facing teams with a balanced, run-heavy approach.
• Penn State Nittany Lions: The Nittany Lions are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. They have shown the ability to cover large spreads, particularly when facing teams with less depth and talent.
• Head-to-Head: Penn State has historically dominated this matchup, but West Virginia has covered the spread in 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia, provides a significant home-field advantage for the West Virginia Mountaineers. The weather forecast for August 31st calls for temperatures in the low 70s with clear skies, typical for late summer in the Appalachian region. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for West Virginia.

The home-field advantage of Milan Puskar Stadium, coupled with the experienced leadership of Neal Brown, will be a factor in favor of West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a strong record in season openers under Brown, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Penn State. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from outside the Big 12 like Penn State.

Prediction