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Over/Under Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

The 2024 college football season gets underway with an exciting non-conference matchup between the SMU Mustangs and the Nevada Wolf Pack. Scheduled for August 24, 2024, at 5:00 PM EST, the game will take place at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada. SMU, a team on the rise in the ACC, faces a Nevada team looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season. With SMU favored by 27.5 points and the over/under set at 56.5 points, this game presents several intriguing betting angles. In this article, we'll explore the key factors influencing the over/under total, including team strategies, recent performance, advanced metrics, and player impact.

Game Information

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
• Time: 5:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: CBSSN
• Line: SMU -27.5
• Over/Under: 56.5 points

SMU Mustangs: High-Octane Offense and Improving Defense

The SMU Mustangs enter the 2024 season with lofty expectations after a strong 2023 campaign in which they finished 10-3, highlighted by an appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Under the guidance of Head Coach Rhett Lashlee, SMU has become known for its explosive offense, which ranked among the top in the nation last season. The Mustangs averaged 37.6 points per game in 2023, driven by a potent passing attack and a balanced running game.

Junior quarterback Preston Stone is at the helm of SMU’s offense, and he is coming off a breakout 2023 season where he threw for 3,458 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions. Stone’s ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs makes him a dual-threat quarterback who can create mismatches against any defense. His primary target is senior wide receiver Jordan Kerley, who recorded 1,104 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Kerley’s ability to stretch the field vertically, combined with the reliable presence of tight end RJ Maryland in the intermediate passing game, makes SMU’s offense difficult to defend.

The Mustangs’ running game is anchored by sophomore running back LJ Johnson Jr., who rushed for 1,023 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023. Johnson’s physical running style, paired with SMU’s experienced offensive line, creates a balanced attack that keeps defenses off balance. The offensive line, led by All-ACC guard Marcus Bryant, allowed just 18 sacks last season, ranking among the top 20 nationally in pass protection. This unit’s ability to protect Stone and open up running lanes will be crucial in maintaining SMU’s offensive efficiency.

Defensively, SMU made significant strides in 2023, reducing their points allowed per game from 29.6 in 2022 to 22.3 last season. The Mustangs’ defense is anchored by a strong front seven, led by linebacker Jimmy Phillips Jr. and defensive end Elijah Chatman. Phillips, who recorded 102 tackles, including 8.5 tackles for loss, is a versatile playmaker who can disrupt both the run and the pass. Chatman, who led the team with 9.5 sacks, is a relentless pass rusher who will be key in pressuring Nevada’s quarterback and preventing big plays.

The secondary, led by cornerback Brian Massey and safety Nick Roberts, is experienced and opportunistic. Massey had 4 interceptions last season, while Roberts is known for his physical play in run support. SMU’s defense thrives on creating turnovers and getting off the field on third downs, which will be critical in limiting Nevada’s scoring opportunities and keeping the total under control.

Nevada Wolf Pack: Rebuilding and Seeking Consistency

The Nevada Wolf Pack are coming off a difficult 2023 season in which they finished 3-9, including a 2-6 mark in Mountain West Conference play. Under second-year Head Coach Ken Wilson, Nevada is in the midst of a rebuild, with the team struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball. The Wolf Pack’s offense, which averaged just 16.5 points per game last season, was one of the least productive in the FBS, and significant improvements are needed if they hope to be competitive in 2024.

Junior quarterback AJ Bianco returns as the starter for Nevada after a challenging 2023 season in which he threw for 1,878 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Bianco has the arm talent to make big plays, but his decision-making and consistency have been issues. The offensive line, which allowed 36 sacks last season, must improve significantly to give Bianco the time he needs to make plays downfield. The running game is led by senior running back Toa Taua, who rushed for 705 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2023. Taua is a physical runner who excels in short-yardage situations, but he will need better support from the offensive line to establish a consistent ground game.

Nevada’s receiving corps is led by senior wide receiver Jamaal Bell, who recorded 643 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns last season. However, the Wolf Pack lacks depth at the receiver position, which limits their ability to stretch the field and create big plays. Tight end Keleki Latu, a transfer from California, could provide a boost to the passing game, particularly in the red zone, where Nevada struggled to score points last season.

Defensively, Nevada allowed 31.8 points per game last season, ranking near the bottom of the Mountain West. The Wolf Pack’s defense was particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 213.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 124th out of 130 FBS teams. The defensive line, led by senior defensive tackle Dom Peterson, will need to step up if Nevada hopes to slow down SMU’s powerful rushing attack. Peterson, a two-time All-Mountain West selection, is the heart and soul of Nevada’s defense, but he will need more support from the rest of the front seven.

The secondary, led by cornerback Isaiah Essissima and safety Tyson Williams, is experienced but struggled to contain opposing passing attacks last season. Nevada’s pass rush, which recorded just 18 sacks, will need to improve significantly if the secondary is to hold up against SMU’s high-powered passing game. The Wolf Pack will need to generate pressure and create turnovers to keep this game competitive and prevent SMU from running up the score.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

SMU Mustangs

• Offensive Efficiency: SMU ranked 15th nationally in Offensive Efficiency, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Mustangs excelled on early downs, averaging 7.1 yards per play on first and second downs, which allowed them to stay ahead of the chains and put their offense in favorable third-down situations. Their ability to convert on third down (47%) kept drives alive and contributed to their high-scoring outputs.
• Defensive Efficiency: SMU ranked 28th in Defensive Efficiency, according to FPI. Their ability to generate pressure on the quarterback was a key factor, as they ranked in the top 25 nationally in sack rate. However, their pass defense, particularly in terms of yards allowed per attempt, was an area of concern, ranking 45th nationally.
• Red Zone Performance: SMU was highly effective in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they scored touchdowns on 68% of their red zone trips, while defensively, they held opponents to a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone, ranking in the top 10 nationally in this category.

Nevada Wolf Pack

• Offensive Efficiency: Nevada ranked 119th nationally in Offensive Efficiency, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Wolf Pack struggled to sustain drives, particularly on third downs, where they converted just 31% of their attempts, ranking near the bottom of the Mountain West. Their inability to stay on the field and keep their defense rested was a significant factor in their struggles last season.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Wolf Pack ranked 121st in Defensive Efficiency, according to FPI. Their run defense was particularly problematic, as they allowed 213.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 124th out of 130 FBS teams. The Wolf Pack also struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, recording just 18 sacks all season, which allowed opposing quarterbacks to pick apart their secondary.
• Turnover Margin: Nevada finished the 2023 season with a -9 turnover margin, ranking 115th nationally. The Wolf Pack struggled to protect the football on offense, committing 25 turnovers , while their defense was unable to generate enough takeaways to offset those mistakes. Improving their turnover margin will be crucial if they hope to turn things around in 2024.

Coaching Analysis

Rhett Lashlee (SMU)

Rhett Lashlee has quickly made a name for himself as one of the top young coaches in college football. After successful stints as an offensive coordinator at Auburn, UConn, and Miami, Lashlee took over as SMU’s head coach in 2022 and has transformed the Mustangs into a high-powered offensive juggernaut. Lashlee’s up-tempo, spread offense has been a perfect fit for SMU, as the Mustangs have consistently ranked among the top offenses in the nation under his guidance.

Lashlee’s offensive philosophy is centered around spreading the field, creating mismatches, and using tempo to keep defenses off balance. SMU’s offense is designed to be both explosive and efficient, with a heavy emphasis on the passing game but also a strong commitment to the run. Lashlee’s ability to develop quarterbacks and maximize the talents of his skill players has been a key factor in SMU’s success, and he has quickly established himself as one of the most innovative offensive minds in the game.

Defensively, Lashlee has focused on building a unit that complements his high-powered offense. SMU’s defense is built around speed and athleticism, with an emphasis on creating turnovers and getting off the field on third downs. Lashlee’s approach to defense is aggressive, with a focus on pressuring the quarterback and disrupting the timing of the opposing offense. Under Lashlee’s leadership, SMU has quickly become a team to watch in the ACC, and the Mustangs enter the 2024 season with aspirations of competing for a conference title.

Ken Wilson (Nevada)

Ken Wilson faces a challenging task in his second season as head coach of the Nevada Wolf Pack. After a difficult 2023 campaign, Wilson is tasked with rebuilding a program that has struggled to find consistency in recent years. Wilson, a longtime assistant coach with experience at both the FBS and FCS levels, was hired to bring stability and toughness to the Nevada program, but the road to success has been rocky so far.

Wilson’s coaching philosophy is rooted in physicality and discipline, with a focus on establishing a strong running game and playing sound, fundamental defense. However, Nevada’s struggles on both sides of the ball last season highlighted the challenges Wilson faces in rebuilding the program. The Wolf Pack’s inability to protect the quarterback, sustain drives, and stop the run were major issues in 2023, and Wilson will need to address these areas if Nevada hopes to be competitive in the Mountain West this season.

Defensively, Wilson has emphasized the importance of stopping the run and creating pressure on the quarterback, but Nevada’s defense struggled to execute in these areas last season. Wilson has also placed a strong emphasis on recruiting, particularly in the state of Nevada and the surrounding region, as he looks to build a foundation for long-term success. The 2024 season is a critical one for Wilson, as he looks to show that the program is moving in the right direction.

Recent Performance

SMU Mustangs

SMU finished the 2023 season with a 10-3 record, including a 7-1 mark in ACC play. The Mustangs’ season was highlighted by a thrilling 38-34 victory over Memphis and a dominant 59-14 win over Navy. SMU’s offense, which averaged 37.6 points per game, was one of the most explosive in the nation, with Preston Stone leading the way at quarterback. The Mustangs’ defense also showed improvement, allowing just 22.3 points per game, as they made a run to the ACC Championship Game, where they fell to Tulane 26-14.

The Mustangs’ success was built on their ability to win the battle in the trenches, with a strong offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks all season and a defensive front that recorded 34 sacks. SMU’s balanced attack, with a potent passing game and a strong running game, made them one of the most difficult teams to defend in the ACC. The Mustangs also excelled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 68% of their trips inside the 20-yard line, while their defense held opponents to a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone.

Nevada Wolf Pack

The Nevada Wolf Pack endured a tough 2023 season, finishing with a 3-9 record and a 2-6 mark in Mountain West Conference play. The Wolf Pack’s season was marked by inconsistency on both sides of the ball, as their offense averaged just 16.5 points per game, while their defense allowed 31.8 points per game. Nevada’s struggles were particularly evident in the second half of the season, as they lost five of their last six games, including a 42-6 blowout loss to Wyoming in the season finale.

The Wolf Pack’s offense struggled to find its rhythm, as quarterback AJ Bianco was inconsistent, throwing 12 interceptions against just 10 touchdowns. The offensive line’s inability to protect Bianco and open up running lanes for Toa Taua was a major factor in Nevada’s struggles, as the team allowed 36 sacks and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. Defensively, Nevada was unable to stop the run, giving up 213.4 rushing yards per game, and their inability to generate a consistent pass rush allowed opposing quarterbacks to pick apart their secondary.

Player Spotlight

Preston Stone (QB, SMU)

Preston Stone is the leader of SMU’s high-powered offense and one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC. Stone’s ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs makes him a dual-threat nightmare for opposing defenses. Last season, Stone threw for 3,458 yards and 31 touchdowns, while also rushing for 438 yards and 7 scores. His mobility, combined with his accuracy and decision-making, makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in college football.

In this game, Stone will face a Nevada defense that struggled mightily against the pass last season. If Stone can get into a rhythm early and spread the ball around to his playmakers, it could be a long day for the Wolf Pack. Stone’s leadership and ability to execute Rhett Lashlee’s up-tempo offense will be key to SMU’s success in this matchup.

AJ Bianco (QB, Nevada)

AJ Bianco enters the 2024 season as Nevada’s starting quarterback, looking to build on the experience he gained last year. Bianco has a strong arm and the ability to make plays downfield, but his consistency and decision-making will need to improve if Nevada hopes to be competitive this season. Last season, Bianco threw for 1,878 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he also threw 12 interceptions, which hampered Nevada’s ability to sustain drives.

Bianco will face a tough test against an SMU defense that excels at pressuring the quarterback and creating turnovers. If Bianco can avoid mistakes and connect on big plays downfield, he could give the Wolf Pack a chance to keep this game close. However, Bianco’s ability to handle SMU’s pressure and protect the football will be crucial to Nevada’s chances of pulling off the upset.

Jimmy Phillips Jr. (LB, SMU)

Jimmy Phillips Jr. is the heart and soul of SMU’s defense. A senior linebacker with great instincts and athleticism, Phillips led the Mustangs with 102 tackles last season, including 8.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. Phillips’ ability to stop the run, drop into coverage, and blitz the quarterback makes him one of the most versatile linebackers in the ACC.

In this game, Phillips will be tasked with containing Nevada’s running game and putting pressure on AJ Bianco. Phillips’ leadership and playmaking ability will be key to SMU’s defensive game plan, as the Mustangs look to shut down Nevada’s offense and give their own offense favorable field position.

Toa Taua (RB, Nevada)

Toa Taua is Nevada’s workhorse running back, and he will be counted on to carry a heavy load this season. Last year, Taua rushed for 705 yards and 7 touchdowns, showcasing his ability to pick up tough yards between the tackles. Taua is a physical runner who excels in short-yardage situations, and his ability to move the chains will be crucial for Nevada’s offense.

Taua will face a tough test against an SMU defense that allowed just 125.6 rushing yards per game last season, ranking in the top 30 nationally. If Taua can find success on the ground and keep the Wolf Pack’s offense on schedule, it will take pressure off of AJ Bianco and open up opportunities in the passing game. Taua’s performance will be a key factor in determining Nevada’s success in this matchup.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first-ever meeting between SMU and Nevada, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. SMU, as a rising power in the ACC, enters the game as a heavy favorite, but Nevada, playing at home in the altitude of Reno, will be motivated to pull off a major upset. The key to this game will likely be the battle in the trenches, as SMU’s powerful offensive line goes up against a Nevada defensive front that struggled mightily last season.

SMU’s ability to establish the run and protect Preston Stone will be critical, as the Mustangs look to exploit Nevada’s weaknesses on defense. On the other hand, Nevada will need to find a way to generate pressure on Stone and force him into mistakes if they hope to keep this game close. The Wolf Pack’s offense will also need to find a way to move the ball consistently against a strong SMU defense, which could prove to be a difficult task given their struggles last season.

Betting Stats and Trends

• SMU: The Mustangs have hit the over in 65% of their games last season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
• Nevada: The Wolf Pack have hit the under in 60% of their games last season. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between SMU and Nevada, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada, sits at a high elevation, which can have a significant impact on the game, particularly for a visiting team like SMU that is not accustomed to playing at altitude. The elevation could affect player endurance, particularly in the second half, potentially leading to fewer points scored as fatigue sets in.

The weather in Reno in late August is typically warm, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s at kickoff. These conditions are unlikely to have a significant impact on the passing game, but the altitude could play a role in the second half as players tire. If the game becomes a grind-it-out affair, particularly for Nevada, who might struggle to keep pace with SMU’s up-tempo offense, the under could be the more favorable bet.

 

Prediction: Over/Under Analysis

The over/under total of 56.5 points is set at a level that reflects SMU’s explosive offense and Nevada’s struggles on defense. Here are some key factors to consider:

• SMU’s Offense: The Mustangs are expected to score in the 35-40 point range, given their high-powered passing game and Nevada’s poor pass defense.
• Nevada’s Offense: The Wolf Pack have shown they can struggle to move the ball against strong defenses, and SMU’s unit fits that description. Nevada might struggle to reach 20 points in this game.
• Pace of Play: SMU prefers an up-tempo game, which could lead to a higher-scoring contest, but Nevada may try to slow the pace to keep the game close.
• Altitude Impact: The high elevation could lead to fatigue, particularly for SMU, and result in fewer points scored in the second half.