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Over/Under Betting Preview: Montana State Bobcats vs. New Mexico Lobos

The 2024 college football season kicks off with a fascinating non-conference matchup between the Montana State Bobcats and the New Mexico Lobos. The game is scheduled for August 24, 2024, at 1:00 PM EST and will take place at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. This matchup features a clash between an FCS powerhouse in Montana State and an FBS team in New Mexico that’s eager to prove itself after a challenging 2023 season. With the over/under set at 53.5 points, this game offers intriguing betting opportunities. In this article, we'll delve into the key factors influencing the over/under total, including team strengths, historical trends, coaching philosophies, and player impact.

 

Game Information

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
• Time: 1:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: FS1
• Line: Montana State -9.5
• Over/Under: 53.5 points

Montana State Bobcats: Run-Heavy Offense and Stout Defense

The Montana State Bobcats are coming off a successful 2023 campaign in which they finished 10-3, advancing deep into the FCS playoffs. Head Coach Brent Vigen has built a team that thrives on physicality and a dominant ground game, a formula that has consistently produced winning seasons in the highly competitive Big Sky Conference. The Bobcats averaged an impressive 36.8 points per game last season, with their offense heavily reliant on the run, racking up 250.3 rushing yards per game, ranking them among the top rushing teams in the FCS.

Senior quarterback Sean Chambers is the catalyst for Montana State’s offense. A dual-threat quarterback, Chambers threw for 2,102 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, while also contributing 712 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. His ability to execute the read-option and extend plays with his legs makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses. The Bobcats’ offensive line, anchored by All-Big Sky center Justice Perkins, plays a critical role in creating running lanes and protecting Chambers. This unit allowed just 19 sacks last season, demonstrating their proficiency in both pass protection and run blocking.

Montana State’s running game is further bolstered by senior running back Elijah Elliott, who rushed for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023. Elliott is a powerful runner with great vision and the ability to break tackles, making him a perfect fit for Vigen’s run-heavy scheme. The Bobcats' offense is designed to control the clock and wear down opposing defenses, which often limits the number of possessions in a game—a factor that could influence the total points scored.

On the defensive side, Montana State was one of the top units in the FCS last season, allowing just 20.1 points per game. The Bobcats’ defense is built around a strong front seven, led by senior linebacker Callahan O’Reilly, who recorded 115 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks in 2023. The defensive line, anchored by defensive end Brody Grebe, who had 10 sacks last season, is adept at stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback. Montana State’s secondary, led by cornerback James Campbell and safety Ty Okada, is experienced and capable of creating turnovers. The defense’s ability to limit big plays and get off the field on third down will be crucial in keeping the game under the total.

 

New Mexico Lobos: Offense Looking to Improve

The New Mexico Lobos are coming off a disappointing 2023 season, finishing with a 3-9 record and a 2-6 mark in Mountain West Conference play. Under Head Coach Danny Gonzales, the Lobos have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense, where they averaged just 21.3 points per game last season. The team’s offensive struggles have been a major obstacle in their quest to become competitive in the Mountain West.

Junior quarterback Isaiah Chavez leads the Lobos' offense. Chavez showed potential in his first season as the starter, throwing for 1,345 yards and 8 touchdowns, while also rushing for 456 yards and 6 scores. However, Chavez’s inconsistency and the offensive line’s inability to protect him were significant issues, as he was sacked 34 times last season. Improving pass protection and developing a more efficient passing game will be key for New Mexico in 2024.

New Mexico’s running game is anchored by senior running back Andrew Henry, who rushed for 803 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023. Henry is a tough, between-the-tackles runner who excels in short-yardage situations, but he will need more support from the offensive line, which struggled to open up running lanes last season. The Lobos' offensive line will face a tough challenge against Montana State’s strong defensive front, and their ability—or inability—to establish the run will play a significant role in determining the game’s point total.

Defensively, New Mexico allowed 34.7 points per game last season, ranking near the bottom of the Mountain West. The Lobos' defense was particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 209.5 rushing yards per game, which could spell trouble against a Montana State team that excels at pounding the ball on the ground. The defensive line, led by senior defensive tackle Reco Hannah, will need to step up if New Mexico hopes to contain Montana State’s rushing attack. The secondary, led by cornerback Zamari Walton and safety Jerrick Reed II, will also be tested by Montana State’s play-action passing game.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Montana State Bobcats

• Offensive Efficiency: Montana State ranked 12th nationally in Offensive Efficiency among FCS teams, according to SP+. The Bobcats were particularly effective on early downs, averaging 6.4 yards per play on first and second downs, which allowed them to stay ahead of the chains and avoid third-and-long situations. Their ability to convert on third down (45%) also kept drives alive and contributed to their high-scoring outputs.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Bobcats ranked 8th in Defensive Efficiency among FCS teams, according to SP+. Their defense was particularly strong against the run, allowing just 100.2 rushing yards per game, which ranked in the top 10 nationally. Montana State’s ability to stop the run and force opponents into obvious passing situations often led to turnovers and short fields for their offense.
• Red Zone Performance: Montana State excelled in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they scored touchdowns on 68% of their red zone trips, while defensively, they held opponents to a 51% touchdown rate in the red zone, ranking in the top 5 nationally in this category.

New Mexico Lobos

• Offensive Efficiency: New Mexico ranked 100th nationally in Offensive Efficiency in the FBS, according to SP+. The Lobos struggled to sustain drives, particularly on third downs, where they converted just 34% of their attempts, ranking near the bottom of the Mountain West. Their inability to stay on the field and keep their defense rested was a significant factor in their struggles last season.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Lobos ranked 112th in Defensive Efficiency in the FBS, according to SP+. Their run defense was particularly problematic, as they allowed 209.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 119th out of 130 FBS teams. The Lobos also struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, recording just 18 sacks all season, which allowed opposing quarterbacks to pick apart their secondary.
• Turnover Margin: New Mexico finished the 2023 season with a -5 turnover margin, ranking 97th nationally. The Lobos struggled to protect the football on offense, committing 22 turnovers, while their defense was unable to generate enough takeaways to offset those mistakes. Improving their turnover margin will be crucial if they hope to turn things around in 2024.

Coaching Analysis

Brent Vigen (Montana State)

Brent Vigen has quickly established himself as one of the top coaches in the FCS. Since taking over the program in 2021, Vigen has led the Bobcats to two Big Sky Conference titles and a deep playoff run. Vigen’s offensive philosophy is centered around a powerful running game, complemented by a solid passing attack that takes advantage of play-action and downfield throws. This balanced approach has made Montana State one of the most difficult teams to defend in the FCS.

Defensively, Vigen’s teams are known for their physicality and discipline. Montana State’s defense is built to stop the run and pressure the quarterback, which has been a key factor in their success. Vigen’s ability to recruit and develop talent has been instrumental in building a program that is capable of competing for national championships on a yearly basis.

Danny Gonzales (New Mexico)

Danny Gonzales faces a challenging task in his second season as head coach of the New Mexico Lobos. After a difficult 2023 campaign, Gonzales is tasked with rebuilding a program that has struggled to find consistency in recent years. Gonzales, a New Mexico alum and former defensive coordinator, has emphasized toughness, discipline, and a blue-collar mentality in his approach to rebuilding the program.

Gonzales’s coaching philosophy is rooted in physicality, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. However, New Mexico’s defense struggled to stop the run and create pressure on the quarterback last season, areas that Gonzales will need to address if the Lobos are to be competitive in the Mountain West this season. Offensively, Gonzales has focused on establishing a strong running game, but the team’s inconsistency and struggles on the offensive line have hampered their progress.

The 2024 season is crucial for Gonzales as he looks to prove that the program is headed in the right direction. A strong performance against a tough Montana State team in the season opener would not only validate his approach but also provide a much-needed boost of confidence for the team.

Recent Performance

Montana State Bobcats

Montana State finished the 2023 season with a 10-3 record, including a 7-1 mark in Big Sky Conference play. The Bobcats were one of the top teams in the FCS, making a deep playoff run before losing to North Dakota State in the FCS Semifinals. The Bobcats’ season was highlighted by a dominant 57-14 victory over Eastern Washington and a hard-fought 24-21 win over Idaho. However, they did suffer a disappointing 37-7 loss to archrival Montana in the regular-season finale, which cost them a chance to host playoff games.

The Bobcats’ offense was one of the most explosive in the FCS, averaging 36.8 points per game. They were particularly effective on the ground, averaging 250.3 rushing yards per game, which ranked fourth in the nation. Sean Chambers was the catalyst for the offense, as his dual-threat ability kept defenses off balance. The Bobcats’ defense was also a strength, allowing just 20.1 points per game and ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense. Their ability to stop the run and create turnovers was a key factor in their success, as they finished the season with a +11 turnover margin.

New Mexico Lobos

The New Mexico Lobos endured a difficult 2023 season, finishing with a 3-9 record and a 2-6 mark in Mountain West Conference play. The Lobos struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball, as their offense averaged just 21.3 points per game, while their defense allowed 34.7 points per game. New Mexico’s season was marked by close losses, including a double-overtime defeat to Utah State in the season finale, which encapsulated their inability to close out games.

The Lobos’ offense showed flashes of potential, particularly in the passing game, where Isaiah Chavez emerged as a playmaker at quarterback. However, the offensive line’s struggles in pass protection and the team’s inability to sustain drives were major factors in their offensive woes. Defensively, New Mexico was unable to stop the run, giving up 209.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked near the bottom of the Mountain West. The secondary showed promise, but the lack of a consistent pass rush allowed opposing quarterbacks to pick apart the defense.

Player Spotlight

Sean Chambers (QB, Montana State)

Sean Chambers is the engine that drives Montana State’s offense. A dual-threat quarterback with a powerful arm and the ability to make plays with his legs, Chambers is a nightmare for opposing defenses. Last season, he threw for 2,102 yards and 18 touchdowns while also rushing for 712 yards and 10 scores. Chambers’ ability to extend plays and keep defenses off balance makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the FCS.

In this game, Chambers will face a New Mexico defense that struggled mightily against the run last season. If Chambers can establish the running game early and force the Lobos to respect his ability to make plays with his legs, it will open up opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Chambers’ leadership and playmaking ability will be crucial for Montana State’s success in this matchup.

Andrew Henry (RB, New Mexico)

Andrew Henry is New Mexico’s workhorse running back, and he will be counted on to carry a heavy workload this season. Last year, Henry rushed for 803 yards and 9 touchdowns, showcasing his ability to run between the tackles and pick up tough yards. Henry is a physical runner who excels in short-yardage situations, and his ability to move the chains will be crucial for New Mexico’s offense.

Henry will face a tough test against a Montana State defense that allowed just 100.2 rushing yards per game last season, ranking in the top 10 in the FCS. If Henry can find success on the ground and keep the Lobos’ offense on schedule, it will take pressure off of quarterback Isaiah Chavez and open up opportunities in the passing game. Henry’s performance will be a key factor in determining New Mexico’s success in this matchup.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first meeting between Montana State and New Mexico, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Montana State, as an FCS powerhouse, enters the game as the favorite, but the Lobos, playing at home in front of their fans at University Stadium, will be motivated to pull off the upset. The Bobcats have a history of success against FBS opponents, having defeated Wyoming in 2021, and they will look to add another FBS scalp to their resume.

The key to this game will likely be the battle in the trenches. Montana State’s offensive line, one of the best in the FCS, will go up against a New Mexico defensive front that struggled mightily against the run last season. If the Bobcats can establish their running game early, it could be a long day for the Lobos. On the other hand, New Mexico will need to find a way to protect Isaiah Chavez and give him time to make plays downfield. The Lobos’ offensive line will face a stiff test against Montana State’s aggressive defensive front, and their ability to hold up in pass protection could be the difference in the game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Montana State: The Bobcats have hit the over in 63% of their games last season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• New Mexico: The Lobos have hit the under in 58% of their games last season. They are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home games.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Montana State and New Mexico, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico, sits at a high elevation, which can have a significant impact on the game, particularly for a visiting team like Montana State that is not used to playing at altitude. The elevation could affect player endurance, particularly in the second half, potentially leading to fewer points scored as fatigue sets in.

The weather in Albuquerque in late August is typically hot and dry, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s. While these conditions are not expected to have a significant impact on the passing game, the heat could contribute to player fatigue, particularly for a run-heavy team like Montana State. If the game turns into a grind-it-out affair, the under could be the more favorable bet.

Prediction: Over/Under Analysis

The over/under total of 53.5 points is set at a level that reflects the contrast between Montana State’s explosive offense and New Mexico’s struggling defense. Here are some key factors to consider:

• Montana State’s Offense: The Bobcats are expected to score in the 30-35 point range, given their strong running game and New Mexico’s poor run defense.
• New Mexico’s Offense: The Lobos have shown they can struggle to move the ball against strong defenses, and Montana State’s unit fits that description. New Mexico might struggle to reach 20 points in this game.
• Pace of Play: Both teams prefer to run the ball, which could lead to a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions.
• Elevation Impact: The high elevation could lead to fatigue, particularly for Montana State, and result in fewer points scored in the second half.