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NCAAF Picks Today: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Preview and Prediction

The Illinois Fighting Illini head to Lincoln, Nebraska, to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday, September 20, 2024, in a much-anticipated Big Ten clash. This will be Nebraska's first top-25 matchup at Memorial Stadium since 2013, making the stakes even higher as the two unbeaten teams battle for early conference supremacy. Nebraska opens as a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 42.5 points, according to ESPN BET.

 

Game Information

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Time: 5:00 PM ET
• Venue: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
• Coverage: FOX
• Weather: 87°F, sunny
• Line: Nebraska -7.5
• Over/Under: 42.5

Team Analysis

Illinois Fighting Illini

The Illinois Fighting Illini have been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2024 season so far. Under head coach Bret Bielema, Illinois has stormed out to a 3-0 start, winning with a combination of tough defense, balanced offense, and stellar special teams play. Bielema’s blueprint is clear: control the clock, limit turnovers, and rely on a physical brand of football that wears down opponents.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been efficient, completing 54 of 78 passes for 647 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions through three games. Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss, has brought stability to the quarterback position, something Illinois has lacked in recent years. His ability to protect the football and make smart decisions has been a key factor in Illinois' early success.

Altmyer’s favorite target, wide receiver Pat Bryant, has emerged as a true playmaker. Bryant leads the team with 15 receptions for 235 yards and four touchdowns. His ability to create separation and make big plays downfield has given Illinois a legitimate deep threat. Tight end Griffin Moore has also been a reliable target in the red zone, adding another dimension to the passing game.

On the ground, Kaden Feagin has led the charge with 173 yards on 42 carries, scoring three touchdowns. Feagin’s tough, downhill running style fits perfectly within Bielema’s offensive philosophy. He runs behind a solid offensive line anchored by left tackle Julian Pearl, who has consistently opened up running lanes and provided protection for Altmyer.

Defensively, Illinois has been stout. The Fighting Illini are giving up just 8.7 points per game, thanks in large part to their experienced secondary and disruptive front seven. Linebacker Seth Coleman leads the team with 24 tackles and two sacks, while cornerback Xavier Scott has been a lockdown presence in the secondary, already recording two interceptions. The defense has been opportunistic, forcing turnovers at crucial moments to flip the field and set up the offense.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska has also enjoyed a hot start to the season, coming into this game at 3-0. However, their wins against UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa have raised questions about the strength of their competition. Head coach Matt Rhule is in his second season with the Cornhuskers and has Nebraska playing tough, physical football, but the team will face its first true test against a battle-hardened Illinois squad.

Quarterback Dylan Raiola, a highly touted freshman, has lived up to the hype so far. Raiola has completed 59 of 80 passes for 670 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. His poise in the pocket and ability to extend plays with his legs have impressed early in the season. However, Illinois' defense will be the most formidable challenge he has faced thus far.

Nebraska's offense has also leaned heavily on its ground game, led by running back Darius Dowdell. Dowdell has rushed for 184 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries. His ability to break tackles and create yards after contact has made him a crucial part of the Cornhuskers’ offense. Wide receiver Isaiah Neyor leads Nebraska’s receiving corps with 12 catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns, providing Raiola with a reliable deep threat.

The Cornhuskers’ defense, like Illinois', has been solid to start the season. Nebraska is allowing just 6.7 points per game, ranking them among the top defenses in the country. Linebacker Luke Reimer has been the heart of the defense, leading the team with 30 tackles and three sacks. In the secondary, cornerback Quinton Newsome has been a standout performer, locking down opposing receivers and contributing to the defense's ability to limit big plays.

Recent Performance

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois opened the season with a dominant 45-0 victory over Eastern Illinois, showcasing their ability to control both sides of the ball. They followed that up with a hard-fought 23-17 win over Kansas in Week 2. In their most recent game, the Fighting Illini cruised to a 30-9 victory over Central Michigan. The defense was especially impressive, limiting Central Michigan to just 168 yards of total offense.

Altmyer’s efficient passing and Feagin’s powerful running have been consistent throughout the first three games. Defensively, Illinois has been one of the best teams in the country, holding all three opponents to under 10 points. This consistency has given Illinois the confidence to head into Lincoln and believe they can leave with a victory.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska has been equally impressive in its 3-0 start, albeit against weaker competition. The Cornhuskers opened with a 40-7 win over UTEP, followed by a 28-10 victory over a struggling Colorado team. In their last game, Nebraska dismantled Northern Iowa 34-3, relying on a balanced offensive attack and suffocating defense.

Raiola has shown maturity beyond his years, and the Cornhuskers' defense has been able to dominate lesser opponents. However, Nebraska has yet to face a team with the talent and depth that Illinois possesses, making this a true measuring stick for where they stand in the Big Ten pecking order.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Illinois-Nebraska rivalry has been competitive in recent years, with Illinois winning two of the last three matchups. In their most recent meeting in 2023, Illinois defeated Nebraska 24-17 in Champaign. Illinois’ defense stifled Nebraska’s offense in that game, holding them to just 261 total yards. The victory was a turning point for Illinois, as they went on to have their best season under Bielema, finishing with an 8-4 record.

Overall, Nebraska leads the all-time series 13-7-1, but Illinois has closed the gap in recent years. The Cornhuskers have struggled to contain Illinois' ground game in past matchups, which could be a key factor in this game as well. Bielema’s teams are known for their physicality, and Illinois will look to wear down Nebraska’s defense with a heavy dose of Feagin and an efficient passing attack.

ATS Records

• Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall and 4-2 ATS in its last six road games. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, reflecting their ability to rise to the occasion when facing tough opponents.
• Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games overall, but just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games at home. The Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, but they have struggled to cover larger spreads against quality opponents.
• Over/Under: The total has gone UNDER in five of Illinois’ last seven games, thanks to their strong defense and methodical offensive approach. For Nebraska, the total has gone UNDER in four of their last six games, as their defense has often been able to stifle opponents while their offense grinds out victories.

Betting Stats and Trends

The spread for this game opened with Nebraska as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 42.5 points. While Nebraska has been solid as a home favorite, Illinois’ recent ATS success on the road and as an underdog should give bettors pause before laying the points with the Cornhuskers.

• Illinois’ Road Success: Illinois has been a strong road team under Bielema, particularly in conference play. Their ability to win in tough environments, combined with their recent success against Nebraska, makes them a live underdog in this matchup.
• Nebraska’s ATS Inconsistency: While Nebraska has won its first three games convincingly, they have struggled to cover larger spreads, particularly against teams with stout defenses. Illinois presents the toughest challenge Nebraska has faced this season, and the Cornhuskers will need to find a way to break through Illinois' defense if they want to cover the 7.5-point spread.
• Low-Scoring Game Expected: Both teams feature strong defenses, and the total of 42.5 points reflects the likelihood of a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game. Illinois has gone UNDER the total in five of their last seven games, and Nebraska has also leaned towards the UNDER in recent contests. A defensive struggle seems likely, making the UNDER an intriguing play.

Prediction