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NCAAF Spread Betting Preview: USC Trojans vs. LSU Tigers

The Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic is set to ignite the 2024 College Football season with a thrilling SEC showdown, as the USC Trojans square off against the LSU Tigers this Sunday, September 1st, 2024. The action takes place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, at 4:30 p.m. EST.

Now, while USC had a pretty strong year in 2023, they find themselves as a 4-point underdog against the Tigers. But don’t be too quick to count the Trojans out—there’s a solid case for them to cover that spread, and maybe even surprise everyone with a win. Let’s dive into why that might just happen.

Game Information

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Time: 4:30 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ABC/ESPN+
• Line: LSU -4

USC Trojans: High-Octane Offense with Defensive Improvement

Heading into 2024, the Trojans have sky-high expectations, with Lincoln Riley now in his third year at the helm. They wrapped up their 2023 season at 10-3, capped off by a solid Citrus Bowl win over Louisville, 42-28. The offense, led by quarterback Malachi Nelson, was one of the most electrifying in the country last year, putting up an average of 39.1 points per game—good for 6th in the FBS.

Nelson is back after a stellar freshman campaign where he threw for 3,921 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions. This kid is something special, with a knack for making plays both inside and outside the pocket. His favorite target, wide receiver Zachariah Branch, is also back in action. Last season, Branch racked up 78 receptions, 1,156 yards, and 12 touchdowns, using his blazing speed to torch defenses on deep routes.

On the ground, Raleek Brown leads the way. The senior running back churned out 1,042 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, keeping defenses honest with his relentless running style. The offensive line, anchored by All-American left tackle Jonah Monheim, is solid, giving Nelson time to work his magic and opening lanes for the running game.

Now, let’s talk defense. USC’s defense, while it started off shaky in 2023, tightened up as the season went on. By the end, they were ranked 42nd in total defense, largely due to their ability to force turnovers—they ended with a +9 turnover margin, ranking 7th in the FBS. Mason Cobb, a senior linebacker, leads this unit after posting 98 tackles and 6 sacks last year. The secondary, led by cornerback Domani Jackson, is also strong, capable of shutting down even the most potent passing attacks.

LSU Tigers: Can They Live Up to the Hype?

The LSU Tigers kick off the 2024 season ranked No. 13, fresh off an 11-2 season that included a win over Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl. Head coach Brian Kelly has done wonders in his short time at LSU, turning them back into a national powerhouse.

At quarterback, junior Garrett Nussmeier leads the charge. Last season, he threw for 3,512 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He’s got a cannon for an arm and pinpoint accuracy, making him a nightmare for defenses. His go-to guy, wide receiver Malik Nabers, caught 72 passes for 1,032 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. Nabers is a big, physical receiver who can outmuscle just about any defender.

On the ground, sophomore Kaleb Jackson is the one to watch. Jackson piled up 845 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, combining speed and power in a way that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball. The offensive line, featuring All-American left tackle Will Campbell, is one of the best in the nation. They’ll give Nussmeier all the protection he needs and open up gaping holes for Jackson.

Defensively, LSU is stacked. They allowed just 20.1 points per game last season, ranking 16th in the FBS. Junior linebacker Harold Perkins is the star here, with 103 tackles and 8 sacks to his name last year. Perkins is versatile—he can rush the passer, stop the run, and even cover tight ends and running backs. The secondary, led by cornerbacks Zy Alexander and Denver Harris, is tough to beat, making it hard for opposing offenses to get anything going through the air.

Statistical Breakdown and Advanced Metrics

USC Trojans

• Offensive Efficiency: USC ranked 8th in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s FPI. They averaged a solid 6.7 yards per play and were lethal in the red zone, converting 71% of their trips inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Trojans were 42nd in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 364.8 yards per game. Their run defense was particularly strong, giving up just 131.4 rushing yards per game—a crucial stat against LSU’s powerful ground game.
• Turnover Margin: USC ended the 2023 season with a +9 turnover margin, placing them 7th nationally. Their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers will be key in this matchup.

LSU Tigers

• Offensive Efficiency: LSU ranked 12th in Offensive Efficiency last season, with an average of 6.2 yards per play. They boasted one of the most balanced offenses in the nation, excelling both on the ground and through the air.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Tigers finished 15th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing just 318.7 yards per game. Their defense was rock-solid against both the run and the pass, making them one of the most complete units in college football.
• Turnover Margin: LSU ended last season with a +6 turnover margin, ranking 16th in the FBS. Their ability to protect the ball and create turnovers was a big part of their success.

Coaching Analysis

Lincoln Riley (USC)

Lincoln Riley is widely regarded as one of the brightest offensive minds in college football. Known for his innovative play-calling and ability to develop quarterbacks, Riley has compiled a 21-6 record in his two years at USC. His offense is all about spreading the field, using multiple formations, and exploiting matchups. Against LSU, Riley will need to come up with a game plan that can pick apart the Tigers' defense. Expect a lot of quick passes, play-action, and misdirection to keep LSU on its heels. If USC is going to cover the spread—or even win outright—it will come down to Riley’s ability to make in-game adjustments.

Brian Kelly (LSU)

Brian Kelly, now in his third season at LSU, has quickly restored the program to national prominence. Kelly is known for his balanced offensive approach and aggressive, opportunistic defenses. Under his guidance, LSU has become a well-oiled machine, capable of competing with the best teams in the country. In this matchup, Kelly will likely try to establish the run early, forcing USC to respect the ground game before opening things up with deep shots downfield. Defensively, the key for Kelly will be pressuring Malachi Nelson and forcing him into quick decisions. Kelly’s experience in big games and his ability to manage the clock will play a significant role in this one.

Recent Performance

USC Trojans

The Trojans ended the 2023 season with a 10-3 record, capped off by a 42-28 win over Louisville in the Citrus Bowl. Their offense was electric all season, putting up big points against almost everyone they faced. However, their defense struggled at times, particularly against teams with strong running games. In the Citrus Bowl, Malachi Nelson threw for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns, helping USC to a comfortable win. The Trojans forced two turnovers and held Louisville to just 321 total yards. They’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their season opener against LSU.

LSU Tigers

LSU wrapped up the 2023 season with an 11-2 record, including a 35-31 victory over Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers were one of the most balanced teams in the country last year, combining a potent offense with a stout defense. However, they did suffer two losses against top-tier competition, including a 42-28 defeat to Alabama. In the Citrus Bowl, Garrett Nussmeier threw for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns, leading LSU to a hard-fought win. While the defense gave up 427 total yards, they made key stops when it mattered most. LSU will aim to start the 2024 season on a high note against USC.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first meeting between these two teams since USC edged LSU 20-17 in the 1984 Aloha Bowl—a game that seems like a lifetime ago for both programs. Today, USC is part of the Big Ten, while LSU is an established power in the SEC. The key storyline in this matchup is whether USC’s explosive offense can overcome LSU’s imposing defense. If the Trojans can protect Malachi Nelson and give him time to find his playmakers, they have a real chance to stay within the spread and possibly pull off the upset.

Betting Trends and Statistics

USC Trojans

• 6-4 ATS: in their last 10 games as underdogs. The Trojans have a knack for covering the spread in big games, especially when their offense is firing on all cylinders.

LSU Tigers

• 7-3 ATS: in their last 10 games as favorites. The Tigers have consistently covered large spreads, particularly against non-conference opponents.

Weather and Venue Consideration

Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium is a state-of-the-art, climate-controlled facility, so weather won’t be a factor in this game. The crowd should be electric, with plenty of fans from both schools making the trip to Vegas. While this is a neutral-site game, USC’s proximity to Las Vegas could give them a slight edge in terms of fan support. The point spread being set at -4 suggests that oddsmakers expect this to be a close, hard-fought battle between two evenly matched teams.

Key Factors

• USC Offense: Can Malachi Nelson and Zachariah Branch lead the Trojan offense to enough points against LSU’s tough defense?
• LSU Defense: Will the Tigers’ defense live up to the hype and shut down USC’s explosive offense?
• Coaching Edge: Lincoln Riley’s offensive creativity gives USC a slight edge in game planning and adjustments.
• Motivation: USC has something to prove against a top-ranked opponent, and their history of covering spreads as underdogs supports this pick.

With the firepower USC possesses on offense, plus some crafty game-planning from Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are in a good spot to cover the +4 spread. This should be a tightly contested game, and USC has a real shot to keep it within a field goal—or even pull off the upset.

Pick: USC +4