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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Western Michigan Broncos Betting Analysis and Prediction

Introduction

The Ohio State Buckeyes are set to face the Western Michigan Broncos in a Week 2 matchup that promises to be an intriguing contest for college football fans. The game is scheduled for September 7, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH, with kickoff set for 4:30 PM EST. Ohio State enters the game as a heavy 37.5-point favorite, reflecting their dominance and high expectations for the season. Western Michigan, on the other hand, is coming off a tough loss to Wisconsin and faces the daunting task of trying to compete with one of the nation’s top programs.

This matchup offers Ohio State a chance to continue building momentum after their impressive season opener, while Western Michigan looks to bounce back and make a statement against a powerhouse opponent. With a spread this large, the question is whether Ohio State can cover the number or if Western Michigan can find a way to keep the game closer than expected. 

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
Western Michigan Broncos	+37.5 (-110)	OFF	O 54.5 (-105)
Ohio State Buckeyes	-37.5 (-110)	OFF	U 54.5 (-115)

Team Analysis

Ohio State Buckeyes

Offensive Breakdown: The Ohio State Buckeyes come into this game with one of the most explosive offenses in college football. In their season opener, they dismantled Akron 52-6, showcasing their ability to score at will. Quarterback Wyatt Howard led the charge, completing 17 of 28 passes for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Howard’s performance was complemented by a balanced rushing attack, with TreVeyon Henderson leading the way with 65 yards on just eight carries.

The Buckeyes’ receiving corps is among the best in the nation, headlined by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who caught six passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns in the opener. Smith-Njigba’s ability to create separation and make plays after the catch makes him a constant threat. Additionally, Ohio State’s offensive line is one of the most dominant units in college football, providing ample protection for Howard and opening up lanes for the running game.

Against Western Michigan, Ohio State will look to continue their offensive dominance. The key for the Buckeyes will be to establish the run early and use play-action to create big plays downfield. Given Western Michigan’s struggles against Wisconsin, expect Ohio State to exploit mismatches in the secondary and put up points in bunches.

Defensive Breakdown: Ohio State’s defense was equally impressive in their opener, holding Akron to just six points and 233 total yards. The Buckeyes' defense is built around speed and athleticism, with a focus on creating turnovers and getting the ball back to their high-powered offense. Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg led the team with eight tackles, while defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau recorded two sacks and constantly pressured the quarterback.

The Buckeyes’ secondary is also a strength, with cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock anchoring a unit that allowed just 141 passing yards in the opener. Ohio State’s ability to shut down the passing game will be crucial against Western Michigan, especially if they can force the Broncos into obvious passing situations. The Buckeyes' defensive line is expected to dominate the line of scrimmage, disrupting the Broncos' offense and keeping them off balance throughout the game.

Western Michigan Broncos

Offensive Breakdown: Western Michigan struggled offensively in their season opener against Wisconsin, managing just 14 points in a 28-14 loss. Quarterback Hayden Wolff was under constant pressure, completing 12 of 18 passes for 141 yards and an interception. The Broncos' rushing attack was led by Jalen Buckley, who rushed for 64 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries. However, the lack of a consistent passing game limited their ability to keep pace with Wisconsin.

The Broncos’ offense is built around their ability to run the ball effectively and control the clock. However, against a defense as talented as Ohio State’s, they will need to find ways to generate big plays in the passing game to have any chance of staying competitive. Wide receiver Mylik Dieudonne is the Broncos’ top playmaker, but he will face a tough matchup against Ohio State’s secondary.

For Western Michigan to have any success offensively, they will need to protect Wolff and establish the run early. If the Broncos can’t move the ball consistently, it could be a long day for their offense against a relentless Buckeyes defense.

Defensive Breakdown: Defensively, Western Michigan struggled to contain Wisconsin, allowing 28 points and 398 total yards. The Broncos’ defense is undersized compared to Ohio State’s offensive line, which could lead to significant mismatches in the trenches. Linebacker Corvin Moment led the team with 11 tackles, but the Broncos’ inability to generate a pass rush allowed Wisconsin’s quarterback to have a clean pocket throughout the game.

The Broncos’ secondary will be tested against Ohio State’s elite receiving corps. If they can’t find a way to slow down Smith-Njigba and the other Buckeye receivers, it could lead to a blowout. Western Michigan’s defense will need to play a near-perfect game to keep Ohio State’s offense in check, but given their performance against Wisconsin, it’s hard to see them being able to do so.

Recent Performance

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State kicked off their 2024 season with a dominant 52-6 victory over Akron. The Buckeyes were in control from start to finish, with their offense putting up 52 points and their defense holding Akron to just two field goals. Wyatt Howard’s three touchdown passes were the highlight of the game, but Ohio State also showcased their depth, with multiple players contributing on both sides of the ball.

Last season, Ohio State finished with an 11-2 record, including a tough loss to Michigan in the regular season finale. The Buckeyes are once again among the favorites to compete for a national championship, and their performance against Akron suggests that they are well on their way to another successful season. This game against Western Michigan provides another opportunity for Ohio State to fine-tune their game plan and build momentum heading into Big Ten play.

Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan opened their 2024 season with a 28-14 loss to Wisconsin. The Broncos were competitive in the first half, trailing by just seven points at halftime, but they were unable to sustain their performance in the second half. Hayden Wolff struggled to move the ball consistently, and the Broncos’ defense was worn down by Wisconsin’s physical offensive line.

Last season, Western Michigan finished with a 6-6 record, missing out on a bowl game for the first time in four years. The Broncos are looking to bounce back this season, but they face a tough schedule, including games against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Toledo. The loss to Wisconsin highlighted some of the Broncos' weaknesses, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary, which could be exploited by Ohio State.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Ohio State and Western Michigan have faced off twice before, with Ohio State winning both matchups comfortably. The most recent meeting was in 2015, when the Buckeyes defeated the Broncos 38-12. In both games, Ohio State’s superior talent and depth were evident, and this year’s matchup is expected to follow a similar script.

Ohio State has a significant advantage in nearly every aspect of the game, from quarterback play to the offensive and defensive lines. The Buckeyes’ depth and talent are unmatched, and their ability to rotate fresh players in and out will likely wear down Western Michigan over the course of the game. For the Broncos to have any chance of keeping the game close, they will need to play a flawless game and hope for multiple turnovers from Ohio State.

ATS Records

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State has been a strong team against the spread (ATS) in recent years, particularly when playing as a large favorite. Last season, the Buckeyes were 8-5 ATS, including a 5-2 record as a home favorite. Ohio State’s ability to score quickly and often makes them a dangerous team to bet against, especially when facing overmatched opponents like Western Michigan.

Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan struggled against the spread last season, finishing with a 4-8 ATS record. The Broncos were particularly poor as an underdog, going 2-6 ATS in those situations. Given the talent disparity between these two teams, it’s hard to see Western Michigan being able to cover the spread against Ohio State, especially on the road in a hostile environment.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Western Michigan: The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
• The Over has hit in 4 of Ohio State’s last 5 games, reflecting their high-scoring offense.
• Western Michigan has covered the spread by an average of -10.5 points in their last 3 games as an underdog of 30 or more points.

Advanced Metrics

Ohio State Buckeyes

Offensive Efficiency: Ohio State ranks in the top 5 nationally in offensive efficiency, averaging 7.3 yards per play. The Buckeyes are particularly strong in the red zone, converting 85% of their trips inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns.

Defensive Efficiency: Ohio State’s defense ranks in the top 10 nationally, allowing just 4.2 yards per play. The Buckeyes have been particularly effective against the pass, holding opponents to a completion rate of just 52%.

Western Michigan Broncos

Offensive Efficiency: Western Michigan ranks in the bottom half of the FBS in offensive efficiency, averaging just 5.1 yards per play. The Broncos have struggled to sustain drives, converting just 38% of their third-down opportunities.

Defensive Efficiency: The Broncos’ defense ranks in the bottom third nationally, allowing 5.8 yards per play. Western Michigan has been particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Injury Impact

Both teams enter this game relatively healthy, with no major injuries reported. However, Ohio State’s depth gives them a significant advantage in this area, as they have the ability to rotate players in and out without a significant drop-off in performance. Western Michigan, on the other hand, lacks the depth to keep pace with Ohio State if key players get injured during the game.

Weather and Venue Impact

The weather in Columbus, OH, is expected to be mild, with temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff. While the conditions should not have a major impact on the game, the atmosphere at Ohio Stadium is expected to be electric, providing a significant home-field advantage for the Buckeyes. Ohio State has one of the best home-field records in college football, and the energy from the crowd could play a role in helping the Buckeyes cover the large spread.

Coaches' Analysis

Ryan Day (Ohio State)

Ryan Day has established himself as one of the top coaches in college football. Known for his offensive acumen and ability to develop quarterbacks, Day has built a team that is capable of scoring points in bunches and putting pressure on opposing defenses. Against Western Michigan, Day will likely focus on establishing the run early to open up the passing game for Howard. Day’s ability to make in-game adjustments and exploit mismatches will be key to Ohio State’s success in this game.

Lance Taylor (Western Michigan)

Lance Taylor is in his first year as head coach at Western Michigan. Known for his work as an offensive coordinator, Taylor has the task of turning around a program that struggled last season. Against Ohio State, Taylor will likely focus on trying to control the clock and keep the Buckeyes’ offense off the field. However, given the talent disparity, Taylor’s options will be limited, and it will be difficult for Western Michigan to keep pace with Ohio State.

Prediction