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Spread Betting Preview: Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. Central Michigan Chippewas NCAAF Prediction

The 2024 college football season features a matchup between the Central Connecticut State Blue Devils and the Central Michigan Chippewas on Thursday, August 29, 2024. The game will take place at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan, with a 4:00 PM EST kickoff. Central Michigan is heavily favored in this matchup, with the spread set at -31.5 points. The Chippewas are looking to start their season strong against an FCS opponent in Central Connecticut State. 

 

Game Information

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI
• Time: 4:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Line: Central Michigan -31.5

Central Connecticut State Blue Devils: Challenging FBS Competition

The Central Connecticut State Blue Devils enter the 2024 season with hopes of improving on their 4-7 record from last year. Head Coach Ryan McCarthy, in his fifth season with the Blue Devils, is focused on building a more competitive program in the Northeast Conference (NEC). Facing an FBS opponent like Central Michigan presents a significant challenge, but it also offers the Blue Devils a chance to showcase their potential against a higher level of competition.

Offensively, the Blue Devils are led by quarterback C.J. Duell, who threw for 1,988 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. Duell is a capable passer with a strong arm, but he has struggled with consistency and decision-making at times. The running game is anchored by Nasir Smith, who rushed for 789 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2023. Smith is a tough, downhill runner who can gain yards after contact, making him a key component of the Blue Devils’ offense.

The receiving corps is headlined by wide receiver Isiah Williams, who caught 48 passes for 689 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. Williams is a reliable target with good hands and the ability to make plays after the catch. Alongside Williams, tight end Tyshaun James provides another option, particularly in short-yardage situations and red zone opportunities. The offensive line, which struggled at times last season, will need to protect Duell and open running lanes against a Central Michigan front that can be aggressive.

Defensively, Central Connecticut State is anchored by linebacker Tre Jones, who led the team with 92 tackles and 3 sacks last season. Jones is a versatile player who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The Blue Devils’ defense, which allowed 29.4 points per game in 2023, ranked near the bottom of the NEC. The secondary, led by safety Dexter Lawson Jr., is a solid unit but will need to be at their best against Central Michigan’s passing attack. If the Blue Devils can generate pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays, they will have a chance to keep the game closer than expected.

Central Michigan Chippewas: Heavy Favorites at Home

The Central Michigan Chippewas are coming off a 5-7 season in 2023, including a 3-5 record in MAC play. Head Coach Jim McElwain, in his fifth season with the Chippewas, is looking to guide his team back to bowl eligibility and start the season with a convincing win. Central Michigan enters this matchup as heavy favorites, and they will be aiming to cover the large spread with a dominant performance against an FCS opponent.

Central Michigan’s offense is led by quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr., who threw for 2,112 yards and 20 touchdowns while also rushing for 715 yards and 8 scores last season. Emanuel is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who can make plays with both his arm and his legs, and he will be a focal point of the Chippewas’ game plan. The running game is powered by Marion Lukes, who rushed for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. Lukes is a quick, elusive back who can make defenders miss and has the speed to break off big runs.

The Chippewas’ receiving corps features wide receiver Carlos Carriere, who caught 52 passes for 802 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. Carriere’s size and speed make him a matchup problem for opposing defenses, particularly in one-on-one situations. Tight end Joel Wilson is another key weapon for Emanuel, providing a big target over the middle of the field and in the red zone. The offensive line, which is anchored by veteran center Luke Goedeke, is a strong unit that excels in both pass protection and run blocking.

Defensively, Central Michigan is known for their aggressive style and ability to create turnovers. The Chippewas allowed 26.8 points per game in 2023, ranking near the middle of the MAC. The defensive line, led by defensive end Thomas Incoom, is capable of generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzing, which allows the secondary to play tighter coverage. Linebacker Kyle Moretti, who led the team with 108 tackles last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by cornerback Donte Kent, is a talented unit that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Central Connecticut State Blue Devils

• Offensive Efficiency: Central Connecticut State ranked 92nd among FCS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Blue Devils averaged 4.8 yards per play and struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 49% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Blue Devils ranked 85th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 387.2 yards per game. Their ability to generate pressure and force turnovers was limited, as they recorded just 18 sacks and 10 interceptions last season.
• Turnover Margin: Central Connecticut State finished the 2023 season with a -3 turnover margin, ranking 62nd among FCS teams. The Blue Devils struggled with ball security and creating takeaways, which contributed to their losses.

Central Michigan Chippewas

• Offensive Efficiency: Central Michigan ranked 64th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Chippewas averaged 5.7 yards per play and excelled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 65% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Central Michigan ranked 54th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 356.4 yards per game. The Chippewas’ defense was strong against the run, holding opponents to just 128.6 rushing yards per game.
• Red Zone Performance: Central Michigan scored touchdowns on 62% of their red zone trips, while their defense allowed touchdowns on 55% of opponents' red zone opportunities, ranking in the top half of the MAC.

Coaching Analysis

Ryan McCarthy (Central Connecticut State)

Ryan McCarthy is in his fifth season as the head coach of the Central Connecticut State Blue Devils. McCarthy, who previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Blue Devils, has brought a balanced approach to the team, emphasizing both the run and the pass. McCarthy’s offensive philosophy revolves around ball control and limiting mistakes, with an emphasis on running the football and playing sound, fundamental football.

Defensively, McCarthy has focused on improving tackling and creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the Blue Devils have struggled to consistently execute. In this matchup, McCarthy will need his team to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread against Central Michigan. The Blue Devils will need to capitalize on their opportunities and play a near-perfect game to compete against the Chippewas.

Jim McElwain (Central Michigan)

Jim McElwain is entering his fifth season as the head coach of the Central Michigan Chippewas. McElwain, a former head coach at Florida and Colorado State, has brought a winning pedigree and offensive expertise to Central Michigan. Under McElwain’s leadership, the Chippewas have been known for their balanced attack, utilizing both the run and the pass to keep defenses off balance.

McElwain’s offensive philosophy is based on a high-tempo, spread attack that looks to exploit mismatches in the defense. His teams are known for their ability to score quickly and put pressure on opposing defenses. Defensively, McElwain emphasizes aggression and creating turnovers, with a focus on stopping the run and forcing teams into predictable passing situations. In this matchup, McElwain will look to use his team’s speed and playmaking ability to overwhelm Central Connecticut State and cover the large spread.

Recent Performance

Central Connecticut State Blue Devils

Central Connecticut State finished the 2023 season with a 4-7 record, including a 2-5 mark in NEC play. The Blue Devils showed flashes of potential on offense but struggled with consistency and execution. Central Connecticut State’s season was highlighted by a 27-24 victory over Wagner, in which C.J. Duell threw for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Blue Devils also recorded a 31-28 win over Merrimack, showcasing their ability to pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Central Connecticut State lost to Sacred Heart 34-21. The game was a hard-fought battle, but the Blue Devils were unable to contain Sacred Heart’s running game, which proved to be the difference. Despite the loss, the Blue Devils have shown they can compete against similar-level opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season.

Central Michigan Chippewas

Central Michigan ended the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, including a 3-5 mark in MAC play. The Chippewas’ season was highlighted by a 30-27 victory over Eastern Michigan, in which their offense exploded for 462 total yards. Central Michigan also recorded a 28-24 win over Northern Illinois, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories. However, the Chippewas also suffered some tough losses, including a 41-21 defeat to Toledo and a 38-14 loss to Western Michigan.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Central Michigan lost to Ball State 35-28. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Chippewas struggled to contain Ball State’s passing attack. Bert Emanuel Jr. threw for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Central Michigan was unable to overcome their defensive struggles. Despite the loss, the Chippewas’ offense remains one of the most explosive in the MAC, and they will look to start the 2024 season with a statement win.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first-ever meeting between Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Central Michigan, as an FBS program, enters the game as a heavy favorite against an FCS opponent in Central Connecticut State. The key to this game will likely be Central Michigan’s ability to exploit their advantages in speed and depth, particularly on offense. If the Chippewas can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead.

Central Connecticut State’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Central Michigan. The Blue Devils will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, Central Connecticut State has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their defensive playmakers could help keep the game closer than expected.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Central Connecticut State Blue Devils: The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against FBS opponents. They have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly when facing high-powered offenses.
• Central Michigan Chippewas: The Chippewas are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. They have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan, provides a familiar environment for the Central Michigan Chippewas. The weather forecast for August 29th calls for temperatures in the low 80s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Midwest. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Central Michigan.

The home-field advantage of Kelly/Shorts Stadium, coupled with the energy of a season-opening crowd, could provide a boost for Central Michigan. The Chippewas have a strong record in season openers under Jim McElwain, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Central Connecticut State. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from smaller programs like Central Connecticut State.

Prediction