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Spread Betting Preview: Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Army Black Knights Prediction NCAAF

The 2024 college football season kicks off with a mismatch as the Lehigh Mountain Hawks take on the Army Black Knights on Friday, August 30, 2024. The game will be held at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York, with a 3:00 PM EST kickoff. Army enters this contest as a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -32.5 points. As the Black Knights prepare for a new season in the American Athletic Conference, they will look to dominate their FCS opponent, Lehigh. In this article, we’ll explore why Army is expected to cover the -32.5 spread.

 

Game Information

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Location: Michie Stadium, West Point, NY
• Time: 3:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: CBSSN
• Line: Army -32.5

Lehigh Mountain Hawks: An Uphill Battle

The Lehigh Mountain Hawks come into the 2024 season after a challenging 2023 campaign, finishing with a 3-8 record, including a 3-3 mark in Patriot League play. Head Coach Tom Gilmore, in his fifth season with Lehigh, has been working to rebuild the program, but the team faces a daunting task against Army. Lehigh’s roster lacks the size, speed, and depth of their FBS opponent, making this a difficult matchup from the start.

Offensively, Lehigh is led by quarterback Brayten Silbor, who threw for 1,864 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Silbor is a capable passer, but he will face a much tougher defense in Army than what he typically sees in the Patriot League. The Mountain Hawks’ running game is anchored by tailback Gaige Garcia, who rushed for 823 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2023. Garcia is a hard-nosed runner, but he will need to find running lanes against a physical Army front seven that excels at stopping the run.

The receiving corps features wide receiver Eric Johnson, who caught 45 passes for 552 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Johnson is a reliable target with good hands and route-running ability, but he will need to find ways to get open against a disciplined Army secondary. Tight end Alex Snyder provides another option, particularly in short-yardage situations and in the red zone. The offensive line, which struggled at times in 2023, will be severely tested against an Army defensive line known for its strength and discipline.

Defensively, Lehigh is anchored by linebacker Liam McIntyre, who led the team with 89 tackles and 3 sacks last season. McIntyre is a high-motor player who can make plays all over the field, but he will need help from his teammates to slow down Army’s triple-option attack. The Mountain Hawks’ defense allowed 31.7 points per game in 2023, ranking near the bottom of the Patriot League. The secondary, led by safety Jake Meeker, is a capable unit but will be challenged by Army’s unique offensive scheme, which emphasizes ball control and clock management. If Lehigh can generate pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays, they may be able to keep the game closer than expected, though covering the spread remains a significant challenge.

Army Black Knights: Powerhouse on the Ground

The Army Black Knights are coming off a 7-5 season in 2023, including a victory over Navy and a triumph in the Armed Forces Bowl against Coastal Carolina. Head Coach Jeff Monken, now in his 11th season at West Point, has established Army as one of the most consistent teams in the nation, particularly when it comes to their signature triple-option offense. Army enters this matchup as heavy favorites, and they will be looking to cover the large spread with a dominant performance against an FCS opponent in Lehigh.

Army’s offense is led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who rushed for 891 yards and 12 touchdowns while throwing for 624 yards and 6 scores last season. Daily is a perfect fit for Army’s triple-option attack, excelling in decision-making, ball-handling, and physical running. The ground game is the heart of Army’s offense, with Daily joined by fullback Hayden Reed, who rushed for 714 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023. Reed is a powerful runner who thrives between the tackles, making him a key part of Army’s ball-control strategy.

The Black Knights’ offensive line, anchored by center Connor Finucane, is one of the most disciplined and well-coached units in the country. The line excels in creating running lanes and maintaining assignments, which is critical to the success of the triple-option. Army’s offense averaged 28.3 points per game last season, and they will look to impose their will on Lehigh by controlling the clock and grinding down the Mountain Hawks’ defense.

Defensively, Army is known for their physicality and discipline. The Black Knights allowed just 19.2 points per game in 2023, ranking among the top defenses in the nation. The defensive line, led by defensive tackle Chris Frey, is stout against the run, while the linebackers, including leading tackler Leo Lowin, are aggressive in both run support and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by safety Marquel Broughton, is a disciplined unit that excels in limiting big plays and forcing turnovers. Army’s ability to control the pace of the game on both sides of the ball makes them a tough opponent for any team, particularly one like Lehigh that lacks comparable size and speed.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

• Offensive Efficiency: Lehigh ranked 95th among FCS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Mountain Hawks averaged 4.9 yards per play and struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 51% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Lehigh ranked 101st in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 426.7 yards per game. Their defense struggled against both the run and the pass, and their inability to get off the field on third downs was a major issue.
• Turnover Margin: Lehigh finished the 2023 season with a -7 turnover margin, ranking 112th among FCS teams. The Mountain Hawks struggled with ball security and creating takeaways, which contributed to their losses.

Army Black Knights

• Offensive Efficiency: Army ranked 34th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Black Knights averaged 5.6 yards per play and were highly effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 74% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Army ranked 19th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 315.2 yards per game. The Black Knights’ defense was particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to just 108.5 rushing yards per game.
• Red Zone Performance: Army scored touchdowns on 72% of their red zone trips, while their defense allowed touchdowns on just 48% of opponents' red zone opportunities, ranking among the best in the nation.

Coaching Analysis

Tom Gilmore (Lehigh)

Tom Gilmore is in his fifth season as the head coach of the Lehigh Mountain Hawks, and he faces the challenge of building a competitive program in the Patriot League. Gilmore, who previously coached at Holy Cross, emphasizes a balanced offensive attack and a disciplined defense. However, Lehigh has struggled to execute consistently, particularly against stronger opponents. In this matchup, Gilmore will need his team to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to keep the game close against Army. The Mountain Hawks will need to capitalize on their opportunities and play a near-perfect game to compete against the Black Knights.

Jeff Monken (Army)

Jeff Monken is entering his 11th season as the head coach of the Army Black Knights, and he has been instrumental in revitalizing the program. Monken, a disciple of the triple-option offense, has built Army into one of the most consistent teams in the nation, known for their physical play, disciplined execution, and ability to control the clock. Under Monken’s leadership, Army has become a tough out for any opponent, particularly when playing at Michie Stadium.

Monken’s offensive philosophy is based on the triple-option, which emphasizes ball control, precision, and wearing down the opponent. Defensively, Monken’s teams are aggressive and disciplined, with a focus on stopping the run and limiting big plays. In this matchup, Monken will look to use his team’s physicality, depth, and home-field advantage to dominate Lehigh and cover the large spread .

Recent Performance

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

Lehigh finished the 2023 season with a 3-8 record, including a 3-3 mark in Patriot League play. The Mountain Hawks struggled on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense, where they allowed an average of 31.7 points per game. Lehigh’s season was highlighted by a 27-18 victory over Bucknell, in which Brayten Silbor threw for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Mountain Hawks also recorded a 24-21 win over Georgetown, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Lehigh lost to Lafayette 49-21. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Mountain Hawks struggled to contain Lafayette’s balanced offensive attack. Despite the loss, Lehigh has shown they can compete against similar-level opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season, though the challenge against Army is significantly greater.

Army Black Knights

Army ended the 2023 season with a 7-5 record, including a victory over Navy and a triumph in the Armed Forces Bowl against Coastal Carolina. The Black Knights’ season was highlighted by a 23-3 victory over Air Force, in which their defense stifled the Falcons’ offense. Army also recorded a 17-14 win over Holy Cross, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories. However, the Black Knights also suffered some tough losses, including a 21-14 defeat to UMass and a 31-21 loss to LSU.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Army defeated Navy 17-11 in a hard-fought battle. The game was marked by defensive tenacity and a strong running game, as the Black Knights controlled the clock and limited Navy’s offensive opportunities. Bryson Daily rushed for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, while the defense held Navy to just 242 total yards. Army’s balanced attack and aggressive defense were key factors in their victory, and they will look to start the 2024 season with a statement win against Lehigh.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks another meeting between Army and Lehigh, though the Black Knights have historically dominated this matchup. Army, as an FBS program with significant advantages in size, speed, and depth, enters the game as a heavy favorite against an FCS opponent in Lehigh. The key to this game will likely be Army’s ability to exploit their advantages in physicality and ball control, particularly on offense. If the Black Knights can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and cover the large spread.

Lehigh’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Army. The Mountain Hawks will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, Lehigh has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their offensive playmakers could help contribute to a higher-scoring game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Lehigh Mountain Hawks: The Mountain Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against FBS opponents. They have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly when facing high-powered offenses.
• Army Black Knights: The Black Knights are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. They have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: Army has historically dominated this matchup, with the Black Knights winning each of the last three meetings by at least 28 points.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Michie Stadium in West Point, New York, provides a strong home-field advantage for the Army Black Knights. The weather forecast for August 30th calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Northeast. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Army.

The home-field advantage of Michie Stadium, coupled with the experienced leadership of Jeff Monken, will be a factor in favor of Army. The Black Knights have a strong record in season openers under Monken, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Lehigh. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from smaller programs like Lehigh.

Prediction