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NCAAF Spread Betting Preview: BYU Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs

The BYU Cougars head to Dallas to face off against the SMU Mustangs on Friday, September 6th, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. This matchup is set for 4:00 PM EST and will be televised on ESPN2. SMU, now an ACC member, comes in as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5 points. Both teams are off to strong starts in the season, setting the stage for an exciting and high-scoring affair.

With BYU coming off a dominant win and SMU displaying offensive firepower, the over looks particularly enticing in this game. Let’s dive into the analysis and see why the over is the right play.

 

Game Information

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
• Time: 4:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ESPN2
• Line: SMU -11.5
• Over/Under: 55.5

BYU Cougars: Offense Poised for Points

BYU opened their 2024 campaign with a commanding 41-13 win over Southern Illinois. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff led the way with 348 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, displaying excellent accuracy and decision-making. The Cougars’ offense was clicking on all cylinders, with wide receiver Cody Roberts hauling in 7 receptions for 108 yards.

The Cougars' ground game also showed promise, with running back LJ Martin rushing for 67 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries. With a balanced attack that can strike through the air and on the ground, BYU is well-equipped to put up points against SMU’s defense, which has shown some vulnerability in its opening games.

SMU Mustangs: High-Octane Offense and Defensive Concerns

The SMU Mustangs have started the season with a bang, racking up two wins, including a 59-7 blowout over Houston Christian University. Preston Stone has been solid at quarterback, throwing for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns in the latest victory. Running back Braylen Smith has also been a force, rushing for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns, adding another dimension to SMU's explosive offense.

However, the Mustangs' defense has shown some cracks, particularly in their 29-24 win over Nevada. The unit allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense and struggled to contain the Wolf Pack’s passing attack. This could be a red flag as they face a BYU team with a potent passing game led by Retzlaff.

Statistical Breakdown and Advanced Metrics

BYU Cougars

• Offensive Efficiency: BYU’s offense looked sharp in their opener, averaging 6.8 yards per play. They demonstrated their ability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone, which will be key against SMU.
• Defensive Efficiency: While BYU’s defense held Southern Illinois to 13 points, they allowed 342 total yards, indicating room for improvement, particularly against stronger offenses like SMU’s.
• Turnover Margin: BYU was even in turnover margin in their first game, avoiding critical mistakes that could have shifted momentum.

SMU Mustangs

• Offensive Efficiency: SMU ranks among the top offenses early this season, averaging 7.2 yards per play. Their ability to score quickly and efficiently makes them a dangerous opponent.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Mustangs’ defense has been inconsistent, particularly against the pass. They allowed Nevada to move the ball with relative ease, which could spell trouble against BYU’s aerial attack.
• Turnover Margin: SMU is +1 in turnover margin, with their defense capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes while keeping their own offense clean.

Coaching Analysis

Kalani Sitake (BYU)

Kalani Sitake has established a reputation as a solid leader who knows how to get the most out of his players. Under Sitake, BYU has consistently fielded disciplined teams that execute well on both sides of the ball. In this game, expect Sitake to lean on his offensive weapons to exploit SMU’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Rhett Lashlee (SMU)

Rhett Lashlee’s offensive-minded approach has turned SMU into one of the most exciting teams in college football. Lashlee emphasizes speed and efficiency, which has paid dividends in early-season success. However, his challenge will be shoring up the defense to prevent BYU from keeping pace in what could turn into a shootout.

Recent Performance

BYU Cougars

BYU is coming off a dominant performance against Southern Illinois, where they scored 41 points and looked explosive offensively. Jake Retzlaff’s performance was particularly encouraging, showing that the Cougars can stretch the field and score from anywhere. The defense, while solid, will need to step up against a more formidable opponent in SMU.

SMU Mustangs

SMU has looked impressive in their first two games, especially on offense. After a narrow win over Nevada, the Mustangs bounced back with a dominant showing against Houston Christian. The offense has been the story, but defensive lapses could be concerning as they face a capable BYU team.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first meeting between BYU and SMU since both teams joined new conferences. With both teams featuring high-powered offenses, this matchup is expected to be a shootout. The key will be which defense can make the crucial stops, though it’s likely that both teams will find the end zone frequently.

Betting Trends and Statistics

BYU Cougars

• 4-6 O/U: in their last 10 games. BYU games have been unpredictable, with the total often depending on their ability to score against stronger defenses.

SMU Mustangs

• 6-4 O/U: in their last 10 games. SMU’s explosive offense has led to several games hitting the over, particularly when facing teams that can also score.

Weather and Venue Consideration

The game will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, where temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90s. The heat could be a factor, particularly in the second half, potentially leading to more points as defenses tire. However, both teams are used to playing in warm climates, so the weather is unlikely to have a significant impact on the game’s outcome.

 

Prediction