North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Pick and Preview, April 2 (4/2): NCAAB

Credit: photo by Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

2021-2022 season stats

Preview

#8 North Carolina will play against the #2 Duke Blue Devils at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans for the second match up of the Final Four on Saturday night. For North Carolina, this marks a record 21st trip to the Final Four. For Coach Krzyzewski, this is a record 13th trip to college basketball's biggest stage. They faced off twice on the regular season and each team got the win on the road. The Tar Heels have won 6 of the last 10 head to head games against Duke.

NORTH CAROLINA

The Tar Heels come in with a record of 28-9 overall and 5-4 playing in neutral sites. To get here North Carolina beat Marquette, Baylor, UCLA and St Peter's. After two tense back-to-back games against Baylor and UCLA, things were a little easier for North Carolina in the Elite Eight as they hammered No. 15 seed St. Peter's to advance to the Final Four under first-year head coach Hubert Davis. Armando Bacot had 20 points and 22 rebounds.

Bacot is scoring 16.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. C. Love leads the team in assists with 3.7 for the Tar Heels. Both are currently considered second-round prospects for the NBA draft if they choose to enter.

The team is averaging 78.05 points per game and grabbing 39.32 rebounds. The Tar Heels have conceded an average of over 72.5 points per game while allowing over 43.5% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

The Duke Blue Devils have been dominant so far as they are 32-6 this season. They beat CSUF, Michigan St, Texas Tech and Arkansas to get to the Final Four. This is one of the top offenses in the league, in their last 2 games they scored 78 points against two of the best defensive teams in the nation.

Paolo Banchero could be the top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft having averaged 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. Wendell Moore Jr. adds 13.5 points, 4.4 assists and 1.4 steals per game, while Williams piles up 11.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per contest on 71.9% shooting from the field

The team is averaging 80.13 ppg ranking #8 in the nation and shooting 49.32% from the field goal. The defense has been playing extremely well as they are allowing 41.7 percent of shots to fall against them and are giving up 67.4 ppg, which is 129th in the nation. 

BETTING TRENDS

North Carolina are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

North Carolina are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke.

Duke are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Duke's last 10 games.

Prediction

North Carolina has been incredibly impressive during their improbable run to the Final Four. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head vs Duke. The Blue Devils have lost only 6 games in the season and have an elite offense averaging 80 ppg. With both offenses playing at their best I think the best bet is the over. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Duke's last 6 games against North Carolina.

PICK: Over 152.5 (-110)

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