Gonzaga vs San Francisco NCAAB Prediction, March 6, 2023

Odds

2022-2023 season stats

Preview

As the West Coast Conference Tournament heats up, the San Francisco Dons will take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the semifinals on March 6, 2023. The game is set to tip-off at 8:30 p.m. PT at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The Zags are the clear favorites, with a spread of 14 points and a game total of 159.5 points.

San Francisco (20-13 SU, 16-16 ATS) enters this matchup on the back of a convincing win over Santa Clara in the quarterfinals of the tournament. The Dons are in solid form, winning four out of their last five games and will look to continue their good run against a formidable Gonzaga team.

Gonzaga (26-5 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) finished their regular season with a win over Chicago State and have been dominant in their recent performances, winning five straight games. The Bulldogs are one of the top teams in the country and will look to continue their dominance in the tournament.

The Zags have beaten the Dons twice this season, with close victories of 77-75 on January 5 and 99-81 on February 9. Gonzaga has a history of dominance over San Francisco, leading the all-time series 70-22.

San Francisco Dons

the San Francisco Dons are looking to keep their momentum going after a hard-fought overtime victory against Santa Clara in the quarterfinals. The Dons, led by senior guard Khalil Shabazz, prevailed with a final score of 93-87. This win was especially sweet for the Dons as they had lost their two previous games against Santa Clara this season.

USF's success in the quarterfinals can be largely attributed to their strong shooting performance from beyond the arc, going 14-for-27 (51.9%) from three-point range. They were also aggressive in getting to the free-throw line, where they shot an impressive 77.1% (27-for-35). The Dons also controlled the glass, outrebounding Santa Clara 50-33, including 13 offensive rebounds, which helped them overcome their 18 turnovers.

Khalil Shabazz has been the catalyst for the Dons' success this season, leading the team in scoring with an average of 17.2 points per game and adding 5.5 rebounds per game. Despite shooting just 40.9% from the field, Shabazz has been a reliable scorer for USF, reaching double digits in all but two games this season. The Dons also have other players to watch, including senior guard Tyrell Roberts, who averages 15.9 points per game and shoots 39.5% from beyond the arc, junior forward Zane Meeks, who contributes 10.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, and junior guard Marcus Williams, who adds 7.2 points per game.

On the offensive end, USF averages 75.6 points per game, ranking 90th in the country. They shoot 44.9% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc, ranking 176th and 121st in the nation, respectively. The Dons convert 74.9% of their free throws, ranking 54th in the country, and average 31.6 rebounds per game with a +1.5 rebounding margin. USF ranks 89th in schedule-adjusted offensive efficiency and 43rd in effective field goal percentage (53.6%).

Defensively, the Dons give up 73.0 points per game, ranking 266th in the country. Their opponents shoot 44.0% from the field and 34.2% from beyond the arc, ranking 206th and 212th in the nation, respectively. USF ranks 147th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 265th in assist-per-turnover ratio, and 103rd in adjusted tempo.

The Dons will face a tough challenge in their upcoming matchup against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the semifinals. Gonzaga, who are 12.5-point favorites according to the latest spread, have won both of their previous matchups against the Dons this season, 77-75 on January 5 and 99-81 on February 9. The Bulldogs have a strong offense, averaging 87.9 points per game and shooting 54.3% from the field, ranking 1st and 1st in the country, respectively. Gonzaga also has a strong defense, giving up just 64.7 points per game and holding opponents to 40.6% shooting from the field.

Despite being the underdogs in this matchup, the Dons have shown that they are a resilient team that is capable of overcoming adversity.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are looking to continue their dominating season as they aim for their second national championship in school history. The Bulldogs finished the regular season with two victories, including a convincing win over Saint Mary's in their final conference game. With an impressive 88.0 points per game and 52.9% shooting from the floor, Gonzaga is the top-ranked team in offensive efficiency and one of the most dangerous offensive teams in college basketball.

In their win over Saint Mary's, Gonzaga controlled the game from the beginning and never trailed. The Bulldogs shot an impressive 53.8% from the floor and made 85% of their free-throw attempts. Senior forward Drew Timme led the way for Gonzaga with an average of 21.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this season. Julian Strawther, Anton Watson, and Rasir Bolton are also players to watch for the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga's offense has been nothing short of dominant this season, averaging 88.0 points per game and shooting an incredible 52.9% from the floor, including 38.2% from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs' effective field goal percentage of 58.3% ranks second in the nation, while their offensive efficiency is tops in the country. They convert 69.8% of their free-throw attempts and average 33.6 rebounds per game with a +5.4 rebounding margin.

However, the Bulldogs have shown some vulnerability on the defensive end of the court. They surrender an average of 73.6 points per game, and their opponents shoot 44.9% from the floor and 34.7% from three-point range. Gonzaga ranks 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 12th in assist-per-turnover ratio, and 40th in adjusted tempo. While their offense is certainly the strength of their team, they will need to tighten up their defense if they hope to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

As they prepare to face the San Francisco Dons in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament, Gonzaga will need to bring their A-game on both ends of the court. With the Dons shooting 51.9% from beyond the arc in their quarterfinal win over Santa Clara, Gonzaga's defense will need to step up and limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' high-powered offense will look to continue their dominant form and put up big numbers against the Dons.

Overall, Gonzaga's impressive offensive firepower makes them a dangerous team heading into the NCAA tournament. If they can tighten up their defense and continue to execute on offense, they have a strong chance of making a deep run and potentially winning the championship.

BETTING TRENDS

San Francisco Dons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

San Francisco Dons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

San Francisco Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS win.

Gonzaga Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

Gonzaga Bulldogs are 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Prediction

In this upcoming semifinal match of the West Coast Conference Tournament, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are the clear favorites over the San Francisco Dons. Despite the Dons' recent good form, winning four of their last five games, they will face a tough challenge against a dominant Gonzaga team. Gonzaga has won both previous matchups against the Dons this season and boasts an impressive offensive firepower, ranking first in the country in offensive efficiency and averaging 88.0 points per game.

However, the Dons have shown they can keep games close and cover the spread, as evidenced by their 16-16 ATS record this season. In their quarterfinal victory over Santa Clara, they shot 51.9% from beyond the arc and were aggressive in getting to the free-throw line, which helped them overcome their turnovers and control the glass. The Dons will look to rely on senior guard Khalil Shabazz, who leads the team in scoring with an average of 17.2 points per game, and senior guard Tyrell Roberts, who shoots 39.5% from beyond the arc.

While the Bulldogs are the favorites to win this matchup, they have shown some vulnerabilities on defense, surrendering an average of 73.6 points per game and ranking 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Dons' strong shooting from beyond the arc could pose a threat to Gonzaga's defense, and if they can capitalize on their opportunities and limit turnovers, they could keep the game close enough to cover the spread.

Overall, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are the more dominant team in this matchup, but the San Francisco Dons have shown they are capable of keeping games close and covering the spread. However, for the Dons to pull off the upset and advance to the finals, they will need to rely on their shooting and limit turnovers while tightening up their defense against a strong Gonzaga offense.

PICK: San Francisco Dons +14 (-110)

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