Creighton vs NC State Preview and Prediction, 03/17

Photo Credit: © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

2022-2023 season stats

Preview

The Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - 1st Round will feature a matchup between the NC State Wolf Pack and the Creighton Blue Jays. NC State, the 15th seed in the region, will face a tough challenge against the 2nd seeded Creighton, who have had a strong season and are one of the favorites to make a deep run in the tournament. In this extended preview, we will take a closer look at both teams and analyze their strengths and weaknesses to make a final prediction.

NC State Wolf Pack

The NC State Wolfpack has had a solid season, finishing with an overall record of 23-10 and 12-8 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). They are known for their impressive offensive play and can score points from all areas of the court. Their star player is guard T. Smith, who averages 17.5 points per game, 4.2 assists per game, and 2.2 turnovers per game. He is a versatile player and can score from outside the arc or penetrate the defense to make layups or draw fouls. In addition, the Wolfpack also have a strong inside presence with forward D.J. Burns Jr. who averages 4.8 rebounds per game.

The Wolfpack's offense is ranked 16th in the country, averaging 82.3 points per game. They shoot the ball well from beyond the arc, making 38.2% of their three-point attempts, which is 9th in the nation. The team's success, however, has not translated to defense, as they have allowed 77.4 points per game, which is 308th in the country.

NC State has played five games in the last few weeks, winning two and losing three. They lost their final game of the season to Clemson by a margin of 26 points, 54-80. The Wolfpack's poor performance in that game could be attributed to fatigue, as they had played four games in the previous seven days. However, they will have had a week's rest before their matchup against Creighton.

Creighton Blue Jays

The Creighton Bluejays have had a good season, finishing with an overall record of 21-12 and 14-6 in the Big East Conference. They have been a consistent team throughout the season, winning games against some of the top teams in the conference. Their star player is center Ryan Kalkbrenner, who averages 15.4 points per game, 7.4 rebounds per game, and 1.4 blocks per game. Kalkbrenner is a dominant player in the paint and can score efficiently from close range.

The Bluejays' offense is ranked 43rd in the country, averaging 78.1 points per game. They shoot the ball well from the field, making 47.4% of their field goal attempts, which is 19th in the nation. They also have a strong defense, allowing just 69.2 points per game, which is 112th in the country.

Creighton has played five games in the last few weeks, winning three and losing two. Their most recent loss was against Xavier in the quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament, where they were defeated by a margin of 22 points, 60-82. The Bluejays will look to bounce back in the NCAA tournament and make a deep run.

BETTING TRENDS

NC State are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

NC State are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.

NC State are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the Big East conference.

NC State are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played in March.

Creighton are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Creighton's last 5 games.

Creighton are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games.

Creighton are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the America East conference.

Prediction

Firstly, Creighton's defense has been more consistent than NC State's throughout the season. While NC State has struggled on the defensive end, allowing an average of 77.4 points per game, Creighton has held their opponents to an average of just 69.2 points per game. This difference in defensive performance could be the deciding factor in the game, especially if the two teams' offenses cancel each other out.

Secondly, Creighton has a more efficient offense than NC State. While NC State averages 82.3 points per game, they are not as efficient as Creighton, who averages 78.1 points per game. Creighton shoots the ball better from the field and has a better assist-to-turnover ratio, indicating that they are more disciplined with the ball. In a game that could be decided by a few points, these small advantages could make all the difference.

Lastly, Creighton has a strong inside presence with Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has been dominant in the paint this season. NC State may struggle to contain him, especially if they do not have a player who can match his size and physicality. If Kalkbrenner can get going early and draw fouls, it could disrupt NC State's game plan and give Creighton an advantage.

In conclusion, this game between Creighton and NC State is expected to be a close matchup between two talented teams. However, Creighton's superior defense, more efficient offense, and strong inside presence make them the favorites to win and cover the -5 points spread. 

PICK: Creighton -5 (-110)

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