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WNBA Picks Today: Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks Preview and Prediction - September 10, 2024

Introduction

The Connecticut Sun (25-10) will face off against the Los Angeles Sparks (7-28) on September 10, 2024, at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The Sun, currently in second place in the Eastern Conference, are looking to secure their 26th win of the season. On the other hand, the Sparks are hoping to salvage a win in what has been a challenging season for them. 

 

Odds Table

Team	Point Spread	Moneyline Odds	Total (Over/Under)
Connecticut Sun	-9.5 (-120)	-550	O 158.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Sparks	+9.5 (-105)	+400	U 158.5 (-105)

Team Analysis

Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have been one of the most consistent teams in the WNBA this season, with a 25-10 record that places them second in the Eastern Conference. Led by DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas, the Sun have been efficient on both ends of the floor. Bonner leads the team in scoring with 15.9 points per game, while Thomas is a force in the paint, averaging 8.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game.

Defensively, the Sun have been formidable, allowing just 74.1 points per game, which ranks among the best in the league. Their defense has been the backbone of their success, often suffocating opponents and forcing them into low-percentage shots. Offensively, the Sun average 79.9 points per game, with a well-balanced attack that can exploit the weaknesses of any defense they face.

Despite their strong defensive record, the Sun have shown they can engage in high-scoring games, particularly when their offense is clicking. Their recent games have demonstrated their ability to adjust their style of play depending on the opponent, making them a versatile and dangerous team.

Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks have had a disappointing season, reflected in their 7-28 record and last-place standing in the Western Conference. Despite the struggles, Dearica Hamby has been a standout performer, leading the team with 17.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Hamby has been the focal point of the Sparks' offense, but she has often lacked consistent support from her teammates.

The Sparks have struggled defensively, allowing 86.4 points per game, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Their inability to contain opposing offenses has led to numerous high-scoring affairs, especially against teams with strong offensive capabilities like the Sun. However, the Sparks have also shown they can score in bunches, particularly when Hamby is in form.

The Sparks' recent performances have been less than encouraging, with four consecutive losses, including a 79-67 defeat to the Sun on September 8. In those losses, the Sparks' defensive deficiencies were on full display, as they struggled to keep opponents under 80 points. This trend is likely to continue against the Sun, who have the offensive firepower to exploit the Sparks' weaknesses.

Recent Performance

Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have had a mixed run of form in their last five games, winning three and losing two. Their most recent game saw them defeat the Sparks 79-67, a game in which their defense held strong. However, the Sun have also shown they can be vulnerable, as evidenced by their losses to the Las Vegas Aces and the Seattle Storm.

Despite these setbacks, the Sun have generally been involved in higher-scoring games, particularly against teams with weaker defenses. In their last five games, the Sun have scored over 79 points three times, demonstrating their ability to put up points when necessary. This trend suggests that the upcoming game against the Sparks could see a similar scoring output, especially given the Sparks' defensive struggles.

Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks have struggled mightily in recent weeks, losing four of their last five games. Their most recent loss to the Sun highlighted their ongoing issues on both ends of the court. Despite putting up a fight, the Sparks have been unable to keep up with their opponents, particularly on the defensive end.

The Sparks' games have often gone over the total points line this season due to their defensive issues. However, they have also shown they can contribute to high-scoring games, particularly when Hamby is in form. This was evident in their 94-88 upset win over the New York Liberty on August 28, where their offense clicked and they managed to outscore one of the best teams in the league.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Connecticut Sun and Los Angeles Sparks have met three times this season, with the Sun winning all three matchups. The most recent game on September 8 saw the Sun secure a 79-67 victory, a game characterized by Connecticut's strong defense and control of the pace. However, the Sparks have shown they can keep games competitive, particularly when they are able to get their offense going.

Historically, the Sun have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning seven of the last ten games against the Sparks. The Sun's ability to enforce their defensive strategy has been key to their success in these encounters, often keeping the Sparks' scoring in check. However, given the Sparks' tendency to be involved in high-scoring games this season, the over could be a more favorable bet in their upcoming meeting.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun have been one of the more reliable teams against the spread this season, with a 19-16 record. As road favorites, the Sun have covered the spread in 60% of their games, showcasing their ability to perform well away from home. Their strong defense and disciplined play make them a reliable bet, particularly against weaker teams like the Sparks.

Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks, on the other hand, have struggled against the spread, with a 12-23 record. As home underdogs, the Sparks have covered the spread in only 35% of their games. Their defensive issues have made them a risky bet, especially against top-tier teams like the Sun. Additionally, the Sparks’ tendency to be involved in high-scoring games has often led to them failing to cover the spread.

Betting Stats and Trends

The betting trends for this matchup favor the over. The Sparks have seen the over hit in three of their last five games, largely due to their defensive struggles. The Sun, meanwhile, have shown they can score efficiently against weaker defenses, with three of their last five games also going over the total points line.

With the total set at 158.5 points, and considering the recent performances of both teams, betting on the over appears to be the prudent choice. The Sparks' inability to contain opposing offenses, coupled with the Sun's balanced scoring attack, makes it likely that this game will see a higher total score than expected.

Prediction