Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction Game 1 NBA Picks 5/22

Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction Game 1 NBA Picks 5/22

© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports


NBA Playoffs: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Preview and Prediction

Minneapolis, MN; May 22, 2024, 5:30 PM EST

Game Odds

Odds by ESPN BET

Time Spread Total Moneyline
5:30 PM DAL +4.5 (-105) o206.5 (-115) +155
- MIN -4.5 (-115) u206.5 (-105) -185


Game Overview

The Dallas Mavericks (50-32) will face the Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) in the first game of the Western Conference Finals. The game is scheduled for May 22, 2024, at 5:30 PM EST at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Timberwolves enter the game as favorites, with a -4.5 point spread, and are expected to leverage their home-court advantage.

This matchup features two dynamic teams with strong individual performers, and it promises to be a tightly contested series. Here’s why betting on the Timberwolves -4.5 is a prudent choice for Game 1.


Team Statistics

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are led by Luka Doncic, who is averaging an impressive 33.9 points per game while shooting 48.7% from the field. Doncic also leads the team in rebounds (9.2 per game) and assists (9.8 per game), making him the centerpiece of Dallas’ offensive strategy. However, their reliance on Doncic can be a double-edged sword, especially against a defensively solid team like the Timberwolves.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are driven by Anthony Edwards, who averages 25.9 points per game with a shooting percentage of 46.1%. Rudy Gobert dominates the boards with 12.9 rebounds per game, and Mike Conley provides steady playmaking with 5.9 assists per game. Minnesota’s balanced attack and robust defense make them formidable opponents, particularly at home.

Injuries and Player Matchups

Injuries will play a role, but both teams have adapted well throughout the season.

Dallas Mavericks

Key players listed as out include Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Maxi Kleber. Luka Doncic is listed as day-to-day, which could significantly impact the Mavericks if he’s not at full strength.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Mike Conley is day-to-day, and Jaylen Clark is out for the season. Conley’s potential absence could affect Minnesota's backcourt depth, but their overall team strength should mitigate this.


Recent Performances

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are coming off a narrow win over the Thunder (117-116), showcasing their ability to perform under pressure. However, they’ve shown inconsistency, losing a game in the previous series where they were heavily favored.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves displayed their dominance in their series against the Nuggets, with a particularly notable 115-70 victory. Their recent games reflect a solid blend of offense and defense, which will be crucial in the finals.



Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Timberwolves -4.5 is the recommended pick for Game 1. Here’s why:

  • Home-Court Advantage: The Timberwolves have a strong home record (30-11), making them tough to beat at the Target Center.
  • Defensive Edge: Minnesota’s defense, anchored by Rudy Gobert, is capable of limiting Dallas' scoring opportunities, particularly if Doncic is not fully fit.
  • Balanced Offense: With multiple scoring options, the Timberwolves are not overly reliant on a single player, unlike the Mavericks who depend heavily on Doncic.
  • Recent Form: Minnesota’s impressive performance in the previous series demonstrates their current form and confidence heading into the finals.

These factors combined suggest that the Timberwolves are well-positioned to cover the spread and secure a victory in Game 1.

Pick: Timberwolves -4.5

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