Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction Game 5 NBA Playoffs 5/15

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction Game 5 NBA Playoffs 5/15

© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports


NBA Playoffs: Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 5 Preview and Prediction KingPin Pro

Oklahoma City, OK; May 15, 2024, 6:30 p.m. EST


Game Odds

Odds by ESPN BET

Time Spread Total ML
6:30 PM +4.5 (-115) o212.5 (-115) +155
- -4.5 (-105) u212.5 (-105) -185


Game Overview

The Dallas Mavericks (50-32) face a crucial Game 5 against the Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) in the Western Conference Semifinals, with the series tied at 2-2. The game is set for May 15, 2024, at 6:30 p.m. EST at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are slightly favored to take the lead in this pivotal matchup, and in this preview, we'll examine team statistics, player performances, injury updates, and a final prediction.

The Paycom Center will host this high-stakes game as both teams aim to gain the upper hand in the series. Let’s delve into the key elements that could influence the outcome of this crucial contest.


Team Statistics

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks, led by Luka Dončić, have had a strong season but face a tough challenge against the Thunder. Dončić has been a standout performer, averaging 33.9 points per game with a 48.7% field goal percentage. Despite his impressive stats, the Mavericks have struggled with consistency and key injuries throughout the series.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have been formidable this season. Gilgeous-Alexander's impressive stats, including 30.1 points per game and a 53.5% field goal percentage, highlight his critical role. The Thunder's depth and strong defensive play have been essential to their success this season.


Injuries and Player Matchups

Injuries could play a significant role in the outcome of Game 5.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are dealing with several injuries, with Olivier-Maxence Prosper listed as a game-time decision and Maxi Kleber out until later in the month. These absences could impact their performance, particularly in critical matchups against the Thunder’s deep roster.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have fewer injury concerns, with only Olivier Sarr out for the season. Their relatively healthy roster provides a significant advantage in maintaining their high level of play throughout the game.


Recent Performances

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have had an up-and-down series against the Thunder, with wins in Games 2 and 3 but losses in Games 1 and 4. Their most recent performance, a 100-96 loss, highlighted their struggles to close out tight games. Consistency and key injuries have been significant issues for the Mavericks.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have shown their strength throughout the series, winning two of the four games, including a recent 100-96 victory. Their robust defense and effective offense have been crucial in their playoff run. The Thunder's ability to perform well in high-pressure situations has been a notable advantage.



As we analyze the factors at play in this matchup, the Oklahoma City Thunder emerge as the clear favorite to cover the -4.5 points spread. The Thunder's consistent performance, coupled with the Mavericks' injury concerns and Luka Dončić not being at his best, positions Oklahoma City favorably for a decisive victory.

Oklahoma City's depth and defensive solidity make them a formidable opponent, particularly at home, where they have been nearly unbeatable with a 33-8 record. The Mavericks, despite their efforts, have not shown the resilience or depth required to challenge the Thunder effectively in this series.

Considering these dynamics, our prediction strongly supports the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the -4.5 points spread. The Thunder's overall team cohesion, superior defense, and the advantage of playing on their home court provide a compelling case for a dominant win against the Mavericks in Game 5.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5

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