Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction & Pick | Nikola Jokic Points (4/4/25)

Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors

Date: Friday, April 4, 2025

Location: Chase Center — San Francisco, CA

TV: NBA TV

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Denver Nuggets	-1.5 (-110)	-125	O 233.5 (-105)
Golden State Warriors	+1.5 (-110)	+105	U 233.5 (-115)

Team Overview

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets (47-30) are seeking to bounce back after two tough losses, including a 140-139 double OT thriller against Minnesota where Nikola Jokic erupted for 61 points. The reigning MVP is averaging 29.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game, showcasing elite all-around dominance.

Denver owns a top-five offensive rating and ranks third in the league in field goal percentage (50.5%). However, they're just 4-6 in their last 10 and have struggled against the spread. Injuries have piled up, with five players, including Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon, listed as game-time decisions.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State (45-31) is peaking at the right time, riding a 4-game winning streak. Steph Curry continues to lead the team with 24.4 PPG while Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga are stepping up in complementary roles. The Warriors rank top five in steals and have improved their defensive metrics in the second half of the season.

The Dubs are 7-3 in their last 10 and 23-14 at home, with a +4.2 average scoring margin at Chase Center. Gary Payton II is out, but the team is otherwise healthy heading into this Western Conference showdown.

Recent Form

Nuggets Last 5 Games

4/2 vs Spurs – L 113-106
4/1 vs Timberwolves – L 140-139 (2OT)
3/28 vs Jazz – W 129-93
3/26 vs Bucks – W 127-117
3/24 vs Bulls – L 129-119

Warriors Last 5 Games

4/3 @ Lakers – W 123-116
4/1 @ Grizzlies – W 134-125
3/30 @ Spurs – W 148-106
3/28 @ Pelicans – W 111-95
3/25 @ Heat – L 112-86

Head-to-Head History

Denver has dominated the season series, currently leading 2-0:

12/3 – Nuggets 119, Warriors 115
3/17 – Nuggets 114, Warriors 105

ATS Records

Denver Nuggets

ATS Overall: 35-42
ATS Away: 16-22
ATS Last 10: 4-6

Golden State Warriors

ATS Overall: 37-35-3
ATS Home: 19-17-1
ATS Last 10: 7-3

Betting Trends

Nikola Jokic has scored 30+ points in 5 of his last 6 games.
The OVER has hit in 6 of Denver’s last 9 games.
Golden State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10.
Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs teams with winning records.
Nuggets have hit the OVER in 9 of their last 13 games against the Warriors.

Prop Watch: Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points (-115)

Nikola Jokic is averaging 30.0 PPG since March 1st and just dropped a season-high 61 points in his last game. Against a Warriors team that struggles against bigs and ranks bottom-10 in paint defense, this is a smash spot. Jokic also went over 29.5 in both prior meetings vs Golden State this season.

Prediction

Nikola Jokic is in elite form and has dominated this matchup historically. Even with Golden State’s recent momentum, their interior defense will be no match for the two-time MVP. If Jokic suits up — and all indications point that he will — expect him to once again carry the load offensively in a game with playoff implications and a tight spread.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points (-115)

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