NBA Playoff Picks for May 6, 2025: Semifinals Game 2 Best Bets

Tuesday, May 6, 2025, features a pair of critical Game 2 matchups in the NBA playoffs. The Eastern Conference Semifinals see the Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 after a surprising Game 1 outcome, while the Western Semifinals showcase the Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves in another pivotal Game 2. Below, we break down each matchup with sharp betting analysis, NBA picks, and predictions. Read on for full game previews, spread predictions, over/under totals insight, and our best bets for each contest.

Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 2, East Semifinals) – Odds, Picks & Prediction

The Pacers stunned the Cavaliers in Game 1 to grab a 1-0 series lead, stealing home-court advantage in this East semifinal. Indiana’s high-octane offense pushed the pace and caught Cleveland’s elite defense off-guard in the opener. Cleveland is a 9.5-point favorite at home in Game 2, with the total set at 229.5 points, indicating expectations of a bounce-back from the Cavs and a relatively high-scoring affair. The storyline now centers on whether the young Pacers can maintain their momentum or if the veteran Cavaliers will respond with urgency to even the series.

Recent Performance & Storyline: Indiana entered the series as underdogs but is brimming with confidence after the Game 1 upset. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton orchestrated the offense brilliantly in the opener, racking up points and assists to lead the Pacers’ scoring barrage. Sharpshooter Buddy Hield and rising star Bennedict Mathurin provided timely shooting, helping Indiana’s offense spread out Cleveland’s stout defense. On the other side, the Cavaliers struggled to control the tempo – a surprise given they were one of the league’s top defensive teams in the regular season. Donovan Mitchell had a modest scoring night by his standards in Game 1, and Cleveland as a team shot inconsistently from three-point range. With playoff implications high, the Cavs know they can’t afford to fall into a 0-2 hole heading to Indiana. Expect Cleveland to come out with intensity, leaning on Mitchell and Darius Garland to ignite the offense and on Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen to protect the paint and set a defensive tone.

Injuries & Adjustments: Both teams appear relatively healthy, so Game 2 will be about adjustments rather than new personnel. Cleveland may tweak its rotation or defensive schemes to slow down Haliburton’s playmaking – perhaps using more traps or putting a longer defender on him. Offensively, look for the Cavs to get Mitchell involved early to build rhythm, and to attack the rim more to exploit any defensive gaps from the Pacers. Indiana, meanwhile, will try to replicate its Game 1 formula: push the tempo and hunt quality shots in transition before Cleveland’s half-court defense can get set. Pacers center Myles Turner will be key in stretching Cleveland’s defense with his outside shooting and also in guarding the rim against the Cavs’ slashers. If the Pacers continue to knock down perimeter shots, they can keep this game close even if Cleveland cleans up some mistakes.

Spread & Total Analysis: A 9.5-point spread in a playoff Game 2 is quite large, reflecting Cleveland’s strength at home and the assumption that Game 1 was an outlier. The spread prediction here comes down to whether you believe the Cavaliers will win by double digits or if the scrappy Pacers can cover the spread again. Cleveland has been a dominant home team this season, but Indiana has proven it can compete with the Cavs’ size and defense by leveraging speed and three-point shooting. With the over/under total at 229.5, oddsmakers anticipate a faster pace than Cleveland typically prefers. If the Cavaliers successfully slow things down and tighten their defense, the game could stay under that total. However, Indiana’s style tends to inflate scores – the Pacers led the league in fast-break points and high-scoring games during the regular season. In Game 1, the pace favored Indiana, resulting in a combined score that was around this projected total. For Game 2, expect Cleveland to make defensive adjustments and be more methodical offensively, which could nudge the score lower. The Cavs likely spread predictions lean toward Cleveland winning the game outright, but covering 9.5 points is a tough ask against an Indiana squad that hasn’t shown any quit.

Prediction: The Cavaliers should come out motivated and are likely to secure a win to knot the series 1-1, but the Pacers’ ability to score in bunches means this matchup could stay competitive deep into the fourth quarter. A final score in the neighborhood of Cleveland 116, Indiana 108 feels plausible – the Cavs get the victory, but the Pacers cover the spread(+9.5) in a game that lands slightly under the total if Cleveland dictates tempo. The combination of Indiana’s confidence and offensive firepower makes nearly double-digit points very attractive. Our Best Bet is boldly backing the underdog with the points.

Best Bet: Indiana Pacers +9.5 (against the spread)

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Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (Game 2, West Semifinals) – Odds, Picks & Prediction

In the Western Conference Semifinals, the Timberwolves took care of business in Game 1, grabbing a 1-0 series lead over the Warriors. Minnesota’s stifling defense and balanced attack resulted in a convincing opening win on their home floor. Now for Game 2, Minnesota is a 7.5-point favorite over Golden State, and the over/under total is a modest 209.5 points – a reflection of the slower pace and defensive battle we saw in the first meeting. The key question is whether the veteran Warriors can adjust and steal a game on the road, or if the young Timberwolves will tighten their grip on the series with another strong performance.

Recent Performance & Storyline: In Game 1, the Timberwolves effectively imposed their will defensively, holding the high-powered Warriors to under 100 points. Minnesota’s perimeter length and interior size gave Golden State problems all night. Anthony Edwards continued his superstar emergence with an explosive performance (he led all scorers with around 30 points in Game 1), while Karl-Anthony Towns chipped in with scoring and floor spacing that pulled the Warriors’ defense out of the paint. Rudy Gobert anchored the interior, blocking shots and deterring the Warriors from driving the lane. For Golden State, it was a rough shooting night – Stephen Curry was harassed into difficult looks and the supporting cast struggled to knock down open shots. Veterans Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins combined for a subpar outing, and the Warriors’ offense looked out of sync against Minnesota’s aggressive close-outs and physical play. The playoff implications are huge for Game 2: the Warriors’ championship pedigree is on the line as they attempt to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole before the series shifts to San Francisco. Expect a proud response from Golden State’s core – Curry, Draymond Green, and Thompson have been in countless playoff wars and know how to bounce back after a loss.

Injuries & Adjustments: There are no major new injuries reported for either team heading into Game 2, so the adjustments will be tactical. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr is likely drawing up changes to free up Curry and get better looks from three-point range – look for more off-ball screens and quicker offensive sets to prevent Minnesota from setting its half-court defense. Golden State may also try to push the tempo whenever possible; easy buckets in transition could be crucial since scoring in half-court sets against the Wolves has proven difficult. Defensively, the Warriors might consider using different matchups or even some zone looks to confuse Minnesota’s young playmakers and force outside shots. On the Minnesota side, the game plan is to stay the course: continue using Jaden McDaniels (an elite wing defender) to hound Curry and Thompson on the perimeter, and let Gobert control the paint. Offensively, the Wolves will want to limit turnovers (to prevent Warriors’ fast breaks) and keep feeding their stars in favorable spots – Edwards driving aggressively and Towns shooting when matched up against smaller defenders. If Minnesota remains disciplined, they can make the Warriors work for every point again.

Spread & Total Analysis: The 7.5-point spread in favor of Minnesota reflects how dominant they looked in Game 1, but it also presents a classic NBA picks dilemma: do you trust the Timberwolves to roll again or bank on the proud Warriors to cover the spread with adjustments? Golden State’s road struggles during the regular season were well-documented, but this is the playoffs, and the Warriors have a history of responding after losses. Spread prediction: We anticipate a much tighter contest in Game 2. The Warriors’ championship experience should translate into better execution under pressure, and that could mean this game stays within a few possessions. While Minnesota is an imposing home team, asking them to win by 8+ points against a battle-tested opponent like Golden State is a tall order if the Warriors shoot closer to their averages. On the flip side, the Timberwolves have shown they can disrupt Golden State’s rhythm and will have the raucous Target Center crowd behind them again. Minnesota might not shoot the lights out every night, but their defensive consistency gives them a good chance to win again, even if by a slimmer margin.

The over/under total of 209.5 is notably low for a Warriors game, but justifiable given Game 1’s combined score and the defensive prowess on display. Over/Under totals analysis: Golden State will aim to speed things up and find more points, but Minnesota’s style naturally drags games into the mud. If the Warriors succeed in pushing the pace, we could see both teams’ scores tick up, potentially threatening the Over. Stephen Curry is unlikely to be held down two games in a row, so expect the Warriors to score more than they did in Game 1. However, even with some offensive improvement, both squads are emphasizing defense in this series. The Timberwolves ranked among the NBA’s best defensive teams all season, and they’re comfortable playing slow, physical playoff basketball. Additionally, every possession in a tight playoff game tends to be more deliberate. Unless Curry or Edwards catch absolute fire from three-point range, the scoring should remain moderate. A final score in the range of, say, Minnesota 105, Golden State 99 (total 204) feels quite feasible given the current dynamics. That would stay comfortably under 209.5 and might also imply the Warriors cover the spread by keeping it within six points. Overall, the combination of Minnesota’s defensive consistency and Golden State’s adjustments points toward a competitive game that doesn’t turn into a shootout.

Prediction: The Timberwolves are likely to win Game 2 and extend their series lead to 2-0, but look for the Warriors to put up a stronger fight. Golden State’s offense should improve slightly, yet Minnesota’s defense at home will prevent a dramatic scoring surge. The result could be a close battle where the under 209.5 cashes due to both teams clamping down in key moments. While Golden State +7.5 is a tempting side with the Warriors’ desperation factor, the best bet is focusing on the total. We project a grind-it-out game that stays under the number as neither team breaks into a high-scoring groove.

Best Bet: Under 209.5 (Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 2 total)