NBA Best Bets & Predictions April 13, 2025 – Full Game Previews & Expert Picks

Kingpin
Apr 13, 2025, 4:04:42 AM

NBA Best Bets and Predictions for April 13, 2025

The NBA regular season finale on Sunday, April 13, 2025 is jam-packed with games, and we’ve got you covered with NBA best bets and predictions for each matchup. It’s a day full of unique situations – teams resting players, others fighting for playoff positioning – so betting angles abound. Below we break down every NBA game on April 13 with point spreads, totals, key news (injuries/rest), and our NBA betting picks for today.

Dive in for NBA predictions for April 13, 2025, including analysis and expert picks against the spread and totals. (All times Eastern; odds subject to change.)

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: BOS -12.5 | Total: 211.5
The Celtics are massive 12.5-point home favorites despite resting virtually their entire starting lineup. Boston has already clinched their playoff seed and is sitting stars – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porziņģis, and Jrue Holiday are all out or resting. Even with the bench in, Boston’s depth and home-court advantage have oddsmakers confident (hence the big spread). On the other side, the Hornets have nothing to play for and are extremely shorthanded as well. Charlotte’s top playmaker LaMelo Ball remains out, and other contributors are either injured or shut down for the season. Without Ball, the Hornets’ offense has struggled, and they’ve been in full tank mode down the stretch.

Boston’s second unit – led by capable role players like Payton Pritchard and Al Horford – should still outclass Charlotte’s lineup of youngsters and fringe players. The total is set very low (211.5) due to all the missing firepower, and we anticipate a slow-paced, lower-scoring game. Charlotte has scored under 100 in several recent outings with their depleted roster, and Boston’s reserves will still play solid defense. Even with backups, the Celtics have more talent and motivation (bench players vying for minutes). They should control this game from start to finish.

Betting Pick: Celtics -12.5 (Boston’s depth can cover the big number; lean Under 211.5 as both offenses may sputter with so many key players out.)

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New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: NYK -8.5 | Total: 213.5
The New York Knicks visit the Brooklyn Nets in a cross-town matchup with the Knicks favored by 8.5 on the road. New York is gearing up for the postseason and looks to finish strong. They haven’t been shy about resting banged-up players, though: point guard Jalen Brunson, forward OG Anunoby, and even newly acquired big man Karl-Anthony Towns have all been listed as questionable in recent days. Even so, the Knicks’ depth and remaining star power give them a clear edge. New York likely wants to lock in its positioning, and they’ve been playing excellent defense down the stretch. Look for Julius Randle (assuming he’s active) and RJ Barrett to carry the scoring load if Brunson sits.

Brooklyn, meanwhile, has had a disappointing season and appears to be playing out the string. The Nets are missing multiple key pieces – Cam Johnson and D’Angelo Russell are out, among others – leaving a young, unproven group to battle the Knicks’ stout defense. Brooklyn’s offense has been anemic with those absences, and it won’t get easier against a motivated Knicks squad. The Nets might give extended minutes to prospects, but that usually results in inconsistency and scoring droughts.

Expect the Knicks to set the tone with defense and rebounding. They’ve held opponents to low scores lately, and Brooklyn has struggled to crack 100 points in games without their primary scorers. Offensively, even a slightly short-handed Knicks team (with perhaps Immanuel Quickley stepping up at point guard) should find ways to score in transition and through Randle’s isolation play. The moderate total of 213.5 could stay under if Brooklyn can’t contribute enough points.

Betting Pick: Knicks -8.5 (New York’s roster depth and defense should lead to a comfortable win and cover.)

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Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: IND -4.5 | Total: 227.5
This game features one team eager for a win and another with nothing at stake. The Pacers are 4.5-point favorites on the road, indicating Indiana is the motivated side. Indeed, the Pacers are fighting for a play-in spot and will likely bring back their stars for this finale. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton and forward Pascal Siakam (a midseason addition) sat out Friday’s game to heal minor ailments, but we expect them to suit up in Cleveland with the season on the line. When Haliburton runs the show, Indiana’s offense is high-octane and capable of putting up big numbers. The Pacers also get Myles Turner patrolling the paint, which will help against Cleveland’s interior players.

The Cavaliers have clinched the East’s #1 seed and are firmly in rest mode. Cleveland has been resting All-Star Donovan Mitchell (ankle) and others; don’t be surprised if Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen all sit or play very limited minutes. Essentially, we might see Cleveland’s bench and two-way players log heavy time. That makes it hard for them to match Indiana’s urgency and firepower. The Cavs’ reserves struggled to score in their last game (they barely broke 90 points when resting stars), and defense tends to lapse when the regulars are out.

Indiana will push the pace – they’re among the league leaders in tempo when Haliburton is active. Cleveland normally is a slow, defensive-minded team, but with backups in, they may not impose the same control. The total of 227.5 is relatively high, reflecting Indiana’s fast style. If the Pacers’ main guys play, they should drive the score upward, while Cleveland’s fill-ins might get some garbage-time buckets. Still, the safest angle is backing the team that actually cares about the result.

Betting Pick: Pacers -4.5 (Indiana has the incentive and talent edge with Cleveland resting regulars.)

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Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: MIA -9.5 | Total: 215.5
The Miami Heat are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Wizards in a game that, on paper, looks like a mismatch of motivations. Miami has already clinched their playoff/play-in position, so they are resting key players. Center Bam Adebayo will sit this one out, and Jimmy Butler has already been traded (the Heat retooled their roster mid-season). In Butler’s absence, and with Bam resting, Tyler Herro becomes the focal point of Miami’s offense – assuming he plays normal minutes. The Heat will likely lean on role players like Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, and possibly Kyle Lowry (if healthy) to handle the Wizards. Even a half-effort Heat squad, however, might be enough here.

That’s because the Washington Wizards are essentially a G-League team right now. Washington has been in tank mode and will be without a laundry list of players: Jordan Poole and Malcolm Brogdon are out injured, Khris Middleton (whom the Wizards acquired in a trade) is shut down for the season, and young talents like Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly are also sidelined. The Wizards’ lineup is made up of rookies and fringe players at this point, and it has shown in their recent results – they’ve been blown out consistently, struggling to score 100 points.

Even with Miami not at full strength, they still have a culture of playing hard and a roster of experienced contributors. Look for the Heat to start fast and put this away early, possibly then coasting in the second half. The total is only 215.5 due to the Wizards’ lack of scoring punch. If Miami’s defense shows up (even without Bam, they can hassle this Wizards squad), Washington could be held in the 90s again. Miami might not light up the scoreboard themselves with a conservative game plan, so this could be a low-scoring affair.

Betting Pick: Heat -9.5 (Washington has no firepower left, so Miami should win by double digits even with backups. The under 215.5 is also in play given the Wizards’ scoring woes.)

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Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: CHI -9.5 | Total: 232.5
This line tells the story: Chicago is a 9.5-point road favorite in Philly, a highly unusual scenario unless one team is sitting everyone. And that’s exactly the case. The 76ers have absolutely nothing to play for and are resting virtually all their important players. MVP center Joel Embiid underwent minor knee surgery and is done until the playoffs. Co-star Tyrese Maxey is out for the season with a finger injury. To top it off, Philadelphia’s big mid-season acquisition, Paul George, is also sidelined with a groin issue. Add in that veterans like Kelly Oubre Jr., Kyle Lowry, and Andre Drummond (now on Philly’s roster) are out or banged up, and you get a skeleton crew Sixers squad. Essentially, Philadelphia will field a lineup of deep bench players and two-way contract guys.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls are full throttle because they’re clawing for a postseason spot. The Bulls have retooled their roster and, despite some injuries (young guard Josh Giddey, whom they acquired in a trade, is out with an injury), they still feature their core scorers. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan should play and can score at will against a weak Sixers defense. Chicago has been playing playoff-intensity basketball for a couple of weeks now, and it shows – their offense is clicking and their defense has been forcing turnovers. Point guard Lonzo Ball remains out (as he has been all season), but they’ve adjusted to that long ago.

With Philadelphia essentially waving the white flag on this game, expect the Bulls to seize control early. Chicago will look to secure the win and likely cover by a wide margin. The total is fairly high (232.5), perhaps anticipating that Chicago will put up a big number on Philly’s scrubs. One concern for the over is whether the 76ers can score enough; their patchwork lineup could struggle to crack 100 points. Chicago might do the heavy lifting to push it over, but the safer call is trusting the motivated team against the spread.

Betting Pick: Bulls -9.5 (Chicago’s stars should feast on Philadelphia’s reserve unit in a game the Bulls need to win.)

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Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 1:00 PM ET

Spread: DET -7.5 | Total: 223.5
Here’s a shocker on paper: the Detroit Pistons are favored by 7.5 points on the road against the powerhouse Bucks. But context is everything. The Milwaukee Bucks have locked in their playoff seed (5th in the East) and are choosing to rest basically their entire rotation on this final day. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful (shoulder soreness – essentially a rest day), Damian Lillard is out with a minor injury, and veterans Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis are being rested as well. In fact, the Bucks’ starting lineup will likely consist of benchwarmers and G-League call-ups. Milwaukee won a hard-fought game on Friday to extend a win streak and now has no incentive to push their stars in a meaningless finale. Don’t expect to see Khris Middleton either – he’s been dealing with a knee issue and won’t risk it.

The Pistons, on the other hand, are licking their chops at the chance to end a rough season on a high note. Detroit is one of the league’s youngest teams and normally a bottom-dweller, but they are surprisingly healthy and motivated here. Cade Cunningham has been on a tear (he dropped 36 points with 12 assists against Milwaukee on Friday night), and he’s set to play again Sunday. Detroit’s supporting cast, including sharpshooter Malik Beasley (who joined the Pistons and has hit a franchise-record number of threes this year), is clicking offensively. The Pistons nearly upset the Bucks two days ago, losing by just six when Milwaukee still had Giannis on the floor. With Milwaukee’s defense missing all its anchors, Detroit should find scoring much easier this time.

One angle to watch is Detroit’s mindset – while they’re out of the playoffs, young teams often relish an opportunity to beat a top team’s backups and build momentum for next year. The Pistons will play hard; their coach has emphasized finishing strong. Milwaukee’s deep bench might struggle to match Detroit’s intensity and cohesion. The total of 223.5 reflects an expectation of a somewhat open game. Detroit’s defense isn’t great, so even Milwaukee’s B-team could put up points, but without Giannis and Dame, the Bucks might not score enough to threaten an upset.

Betting Pick: Pistons -7.5 (Detroit’s main players are active and in rhythm, whereas Milwaukee is essentially forfeiting by resting stars. Ride with the Pistons to win and cover.)

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Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: DEN -8.5 | Total: 232.5
In Houston, the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites over the Rockets. Denver has already secured a top seed (they locked up the #1 seed in the West earlier in the week), so normally you’d worry about them resting Nikola Jokić or Jamal Murray. However, the Nuggets rested a few guys on Friday and still won, so it’s possible they give their starters a short tune-up run in this game before the playoffs. Even if Denver sits some stars in the second half, their bench has proven capable. Keep an eye on the lineup news – if Jokić is a late scratch, the line may move, but as of now Denver’s depth makes them deserving favorites regardless.

The Houston Rockets have long been eliminated and are focusing on their youth development (and draft lottery positioning). Houston actually has a number of veterans, but many of them are being held out. Starting center Alperen Şengün, forward Dillon Brooks, and point guard Fred VanVleet all missed the Rockets’ last game (listed as out due to minor injuries/rest). It’s doubtful Houston risks them in this finale. The Rockets that do play are mostly inexperienced: rookie Amen Thompson, young forward Jabari Smith Jr., etc. They were blown out by the Lakers in their last outing when those vets sat, only managing 91 points.

Denver’s second unit features players like Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and DeAndre Jordan – experienced guys who can exploit the Rockets’ lack of discipline. The Nuggets also have a big coaching edge; even if the game is meaningless, their system produces good shots and solid defense. Houston’s offense tends to devolve into one-on-one play with so many youngsters handling the ball, which won’t efficiently break down Denver’s defense. The total is a high 232.5 because the Nuggets are capable of scoring 120+ if their shooting is on. Houston might push the pace at home, but they’ll need to actually hit shots to get this over the number.

Given motivations, Denver should still take care of business. This could be one of those games where the Nuggets jump out to a lead, then coast – but even coasting might see them win by double digits if Houston can’t mount a challenge. The moneyline angle: Denver’s moneyline will be very chalky, so not much value there; if you think Houston’s youngsters could stun Denver’s backups, the +8.5 is your play, but that’s a risky leap.

Betting Pick: Nuggets -8.5 (Denver’s professionalism and depth should overwhelm a tanking Rockets squad. They’ll likely cover comfortably.)

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: MEM -3.5 | Total: 227.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are 3.5-point favorites at home in a game between two teams that have had very different seasons. Memphis has secured a playoff spot (they’ll be either the 2 or 3 seed in the West), while the Dallas Mavericks have been eliminated from contention. Dallas’s collapse late in the season is reflected in their current roster situation: they are without their two superstars. Luka Dončić was shockingly traded at the deadline (to the Lakers), and Kyrie Irving tore his ACL a few weeks ago and is done for the year. To make matters worse for Dallas, big man Anthony Davis – whom they acquired in the blockbuster Luka trade – is out with an adductor injury. The Mavs are basically a patchwork squad now, relying on role players and youth. They also lost Tim Hardaway Jr. and PJ Washington Jr. to injuries. With so many key pieces out, it’s no wonder Dallas has struggled to compete.

Memphis, on the other hand, might use this game as a light tune-up. They clinched the #2 seed on Friday, so there’s a chance the Grizzlies rest stars like Ja Morant or Jaren Jackson Jr. Keep an eye on pre-game reports; if Coach Taylor Jenkins decides to sit Morant or Desmond Bane, Memphis’s offense might not be as potent. Even so, the Grizzlies’ depth is solid – players like Tyus Jones (one of the league’s best backup point guards) and Santi Aldama can step in and produce. Memphis also plays with pride at home (they have one of the best home records in the NBA). They’d like to finish the season with momentum and give the home crowd a win.

Dallas is essentially running out a lineup led by veteran forward Maxi Kleber and some G-League call-ups. They simply don’t have the firepower or defensive cohesion to handle Memphis, even if Memphis rests a couple of stars. The Mavericks have been giving significant minutes to rookies and unproven guys, which resulted in several blowout losses recently. Their offense has been inconsistent – if their three-point shots aren’t falling, they have no Plan B given the roster absences.

Expect Memphis to dominate the glass and paint (especially if Steven Adams or Xavier Tillman play; Dallas has no Davis or lively big men left). The Grizzlies will push the tempo whenever possible for easy transition buckets. The total of 227.5 could go under if Memphis slows it down without Morant, but even a half-effort Grizzlies squad should put up points on Dallas’s lax defense.

Betting Pick: Grizzlies -3.5 (Memphis has more depth, talent, and home pride – they should win by at least a few possessions. Dallas is too depleted to trust.)

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Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: MIN -22.5 | Total: 231.5
This is the largest point spread of the day, and for good reason. The Minnesota Timberwolves are -22.5 at homeagainst the Jazz, indicating a predicted blowout. Minnesota is treating this like a must-win – a victory here clinches their playoff berth and they won’t take any chances. The Wolves are at full strength and highly motivated. Anthony Edwards is playing at an All-NBA level, Rudy Gobert anchors the defense, and since the big mid-season trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York, the Wolves have found a defensive identity. (Minnesota likely received Julius Randle in that deal, giving them another scorer, and he’s been contributing well.) With everything on the line, expect the Timberwolves to come out with playoff intensity. They’d love to get a big lead and rest their starters in the fourth quarter, but only after the game is in hand.

The Utah Jazz have fully embraced the tank and will be fielding a shell of their normal team. Utah’s top four players – Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, and Walker Kessler – are all out due to injuries or shutdown. Markkanen (knee) hasn’t played in weeks, Clarkson underwent foot surgery, Collins has an ankle issue, and Kessler is in concussion protocol. Essentially, the Jazz are sitting every key veteran and starter. This means Utah will roll out a lineup of inexperienced players. Their leading scorer might be someone like Talen Horton-Tucker or Collin Sexton (if Sexton plays), but even Sexton has had injury problems. In their recent games, the Jazz have been getting blown out by 20+ points regularly – they lost by 25 to OKC on Friday while barely cracking 90 points.

Minnesota’s defense is one of the best in the league when locked in, and against this Utah lineup it could be suffocating. Don’t be surprised if the Jazz struggle to score more than 85-90 points. Offensively, the Timberwolves have plenty of options. Edwards attacking, Randle (if active) bullying the under-sized Jazz, and Mike Conley orchestrating against his former team – it should all come pretty easily. The only question is whether Minnesota can cover such a huge spread. Winning by 23 or more in an NBA game is always a challenge, since even garbage time buckets can spoil a cover. But in this scenario, the talent gap is enormous. Minnesota beat a better version of the Jazz by 30 earlier in the year; now Utah’s roster is even weaker.

We also have a narrative factor: it’s Fan Appreciation Night in Minnesota and the Wolves will want to put on a show. Expect them to keep the pedal down at least through three quarters. The total of 231.5 might actually be reachable if Minnesota scores 130+ and then the Jazz get some late points. But that over/under largely depends on how many points the Jazz can contribute. Given Utah’s last few outings, it’s safer to lean under or stay away.

Betting Pick: Timberwolves -22.5 (It’s a massive number, but Utah is trotting out a glorified summer league squad. Minnesota should dominate wire-to-wire and could win by 30+ if focused.)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: OKC -12.5 | Total: 234.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have everything to play for, while the New Orleans Pelicans are simply looking forward to the offseason. OKC comes in as a 12.5-point road favorite, a testament to how decimated the Pelicans’ roster is. The Thunder are fighting for a higher play-in seed (or possibly clinching a playoff spot outright), so they will treat this as a must-win. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder’s star guard, sat out the previous game with a minor shin issue, but given the stakes he is expected to be back in action. When SGA plays, OKC’s offense hums through him – he’s a 30-point threat every night. Even if the Thunder exercise caution with SGA’s minutes, they have a stable of young talent (Josh Giddey was traded, but in return OKC got another shooter and they still have rising star Jalen Williams and veteran Alex Caruso providing leadership). The Thunder thrive in an up-tempo game and can put up big points, which is reflected in that 234.5 total (one of the day’s highest).

The New Orleans Pelicans have had a nightmare finish to the season. They were hit with major injuries: Zion Williamson hasn’t played since March (shut down with a back injury), C.J. McCollum is out for the season (foot surgery), and key contributors like Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones are also done for the year. Even Jonas Valančiūnas and Kelly Olynyk (whom the Pels picked up as a veteran presence) are out. Essentially, New Orleans is without their top six players. The team’s focus is on lottery odds now. Their recent lineups feature mostly young players like Dyson Daniels, Jordan Hawkins (who is also out with a back issue now), and bench guys getting starter minutes. Not surprisingly, the Pelicans have been getting blown out – they lost by double digits in almost every game since their stars were shut down.

This is a prime spot for OKC to run up the score early. The Thunder’s athletic, high-energy style will overwhelm the Pelicans’ patchwork lineup. Look for OKC to force turnovers and get out in transition frequently. New Orleans, lacking creators, tends to turn the ball over a lot and goes through long scoring droughts. The only risk for the Thunder covering is if they get up by 20+ and then ease off late, allowing a backdoor cover. But given how much their young players love to push the pace, even the Thunder bench might extend the lead against the Pelicans.

The high total is mainly because oddsmakers expect OKC to potentially score 120-130 by themselves. The Thunder defense is average, so perhaps the Pelicans can find enough points to push the total over (especially if OKC’s pace leads to quick possessions on both ends). Still, betting the over with New Orleans’ current roster is dicey – they’ve scored under 100 in several of these late-season games.

Betting Pick: Thunder -12.5 (OKC’s youth and urgency should result in a blowout win against the gutted Pelicans. They are a strong pick against the spread. The under 234.5 is a consideration if New Orleans can’t score, but the safer play is the Thunder side.)

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Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: SA -5.5 | Total: 228.5
This matchup is between two teams already looking to the future, but the oddsmakers see the San Antonio Spurs as 5.5-point favorites at home. That’s largely because the Toronto Raptors are resting nearly everyone of significance. Toronto underwent major changes this season: they traded away veterans (Pascal Siakam was moved to Indiana, OG Anunoby to New York) and in return got some young pieces like RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. Those two, Barrett and Quickley, are now cornerstones for the Raptors – and both are being sat for this finale (listed as out for rest). Center Jakob Poeltl is also out with a hand injury, and rookie sharpshooter Gradey Dick’s season ended early with a knee issue. In short, the Raptors traveling to San Antonio will be without their top scorers and playmakers. Expect a starting lineup of mostly second-stringers and recent G-League call-ups for Toronto. Their offense may struggle to find cohesion given these absences, as seen in recent games where they failed to crack 100 points.

San Antonio, meanwhile, has had another losing season but has shown improvement (rumor has it they improved their win total by double digits this year). The Spurs will be missing Victor Wembanyama, the rookie phenom, who unfortunately had his season cut short due to a shoulder procedure. Additionally, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan all sat out Friday’s game with minor issues – it’s unclear if they’ll play in this finale. However, since this is the Spurs’ last home game, we expect at least some of those young stars to suit up to put on a show for the fans. If Vassell and Johnson play, San Antonio’s offense becomes much more potent, with Vassell’s shooting and Johnson’s slashing leading the way. Even if they remain cautious, the Spurs still have a bit more available talent than Toronto does right now.

One interesting twist: the Spurs’ roster now includes De’Aaron Fox (though he’s out for the season with a finger injury). San Antonio acquired Fox in a blockbuster trade earlier – he’s not playing, but it shows the Spurs are collecting talent for the future. For this game, much of the playmaking will fall to Tre Jones at point guard and perhaps Malaki Branham on the wing. They’ll be facing a Raptors defense made up of bench players, so opportunities to score should come easier than usual. On defense, San Antonio has been shaky this year, but Toronto’s depleted lineup might not be able to exploit it.

The total of 228.5 is mid-range, reflecting uncertainty about who plays. If the Spurs’ main guys are in, this could become a higher-scoring game, as San Antonio likes to push the pace when they have their athletes on the court. Toronto might struggle to score 100-110 points given their roster, so the over likely requires the Spurs to do the heavy lifting. San Antonio has hit 120+ in a few home games when their shots fall.

Betting Pick: Spurs -5.5 (San Antonio has more live bodies and home-court pride; they should cover against a Raptors team sitting its best players. Monitor the Spurs’ injury report – even their B-squad should win, but a couple of their starters playing makes this pick even stronger.)

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LA Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: GS -2.5 | Total: 217.5
One of the day’s only matchups between two playoff-bound teams, this Clippers vs. Warriors clash is expected to be competitive – Golden State is a 2.5-point home favorite in what should be a “dress rehearsal” game for the playoffs. The Golden State Warriors need a win to avoid the play-in tournament, giving them plenty of motivation. They are essentially at full strength: Stephen Curry is playing through a minor thumb issue (he’s fine to go and still lethal, averaging 24.4 PPG). The Warriors also made a big splash by adding Jimmy Butler to their roster mid-season, and Butler has fit in seamlessly, providing defense and clutch scoring. With Curry and Butler leading the way, Golden State has looked sharp, winning 7 of their last 9 games. Their defense held Portland to just 86 points on Friday, a sign that Coach Steve Kerr has them locked in. At home in the Chase Center, the Warriors are tough to beat (24-16 home record) and they know a win secures a top-6 seed.

The LA Clippers have also secured a playoff spot, but their seeding could vary. They’ve actually beaten Golden State in all three prior meetings this season, so the Warriors will be extra hungry to get one back. The Clippers should have Kawhi Leonard and James Harden in the lineup – both have been playing regularly down the stretch. (Paul George, however, was traded to Philadelphia, so he’s not in the mix). Kawhi and Harden form the core of the Clippers’ offense now, and while they’ve had success against Golden State earlier, playing the Warriors on the road when Golden State is desperate is a different story. The Clippers also played (and won) a game on Friday, so this is a quick turnaround travel spot for them. Fatigue could be a factor, especially for an older roster like LA’s.

Key to this game: pace and 3-point shooting. The Warriors love to play fast and bomb away from three. The Clippers generally prefer a slower half-court game, using Kawhi in isolation and Harden in pick-and-roll. If Golden State can push the tempo and hit early threes, they can force LA out of their comfort zone. Also, watch the Warriors’ rebounding and defense – they rank among the top in rebounding, which limits the Clippers’ second chances. On the flip side, LA will try to grind this out and let Kawhi attack mismatches. The total is only 217.5, reflecting that previous meetings were somewhat lower-scoring and the Clippers’ pace is slow. But with the Warriors likely dictating tempo at home, this could sneak over, especially if Curry gets hot from deep.

In terms of a pick, it’s hard to bet against Golden State at home in a crucial game. They’ve been one of the best teams ATS at home when favored by a small number. The Clippers’ road ATS record (17-22-1) is shaky, indicating they often don’t cover away from LA. Golden State’s urgency to avoid the play-in is a huge factor – expect playoff-level intensity from them.

Betting Pick: Warriors -2.5 (Golden State’s stars and home crowd will propel them, and they’ll cover this small spread in a high-stakes showdown. This is one of the day’s top NBA best bets given the situational edge for GSW.)

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 3:30 PM ET

Spread: POR -3.5 | Total: 220.5
The fact that the lottery-bound Portland Trail Blazers are favored by 3.5 over the star-studded Lakers tells you everything – the Lakers are expected to rest their big guns. Los Angeles has clinched the #3 seed in the West, so this game means nothing for their standings. As a result, coach Darvin Ham is likely sitting LeBron James, and possibly even Anthony Davis (note: rumors suggest AD was traded, but if he were on the roster he wouldn’t play either). The Lakers also recently acquired Luka Dončić in a blockbuster trade, and with the #3 seed locked, they won’t risk him either in a meaningless game. In fact, reports indicate the Lakers will rest LeBron, Luka, and Austin Reaves – essentially punting this game to stay healthy for the playoffs. Expect the Lakers to trot out a starting lineup of role players: think Gabe Vincent at point guard, Dorian Finney-Smith (whom they got in the Dallas trade) on the wing, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes. That unit actually has some quality defensive pieces and has held its own in spot starts this year, but obviously it’s a far cry from LeBron and Luka.

On the other side, the Portland Trail Blazers are also out of the playoff picture, but they have a mix of youngsters and vets who will play hard at home. Portland’s front office signaled a rebuild when they traded Damian Lillard before the season, but they’ve been pleasantly surprised by the development of players like Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. Unfortunately, both Sharpe and Scoot are dealing with injuries – Sharpe has a knee issue and Henderson is in concussion protocol and is questionable. The Blazers have also shut down Anfernee Simons (forearm injury) and Jerami Grant (knee) for the year. Center Deandre Ayton is out with a calf injury. So why are they favored? Mainly because they still have a few capable bodies and the Lakers are sitting theirs. Portland picked up Deni Avdija (from Washington) and he might