NBA Picks: Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 4 – Best Bets & Player Props (May 26, 2025)

After a dominant 143-101 win in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to even the Western Conference Finals at 2-2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, May 26. Tip-off is set for 5:30 PM CT on ESPN from Target Center in Minneapolis.

Spread: Thunder -3.5
Total: 218.5
Moneyline: Thunder -150, Timberwolves +130

🏀 Game Preview

Game 3 was a wake-up call for the Thunder, who were run off the floor by a reenergized Wolves squad. Anthony Edwards exploded offensively while Rudy Gobert and company stifled OKC's mid-range attack. Expect adjustments from Mark Daigneault’s crew as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks to bounce back and reestablish control of the series.

🔥 Best Bet: Over 218.5 Total Points (-115)

The Wolves shot lights out in Game 3 and forced OKC to speed up. Despite the Thunder’s defensive struggles, they average 120.5 PPG this postseason. Game 4 should be faster-paced again, and with both teams capable of high-efficiency scoring, the over is a strong play.

Kingpin AI Model Projection: Thunder 116, Timberwolves 112

🎯 Top Player Prop Bets

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 Points

Shai was held to just 18 points in Game 3 but averaged 31+ through the first two matchups. Expect him to be aggressive early and take advantage of defensive adjustments. OKC needs him to lead.

2. Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 Assists

Edwards is evolving as a playmaker, dishing out 6 assists in Game 3. With OKC likely doubling him more, look for him to continue finding open teammates on the perimeter and in the lane.

3. Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds

Gobert controlled the glass in Game 3 and is averaging over 12 rebounds per game in the playoffs. His matchup against the Thunder’s smaller frontcourt should continue to favor him on the boards.

📈 Key Stats & Trends

• Oklahoma City: 6-4 in last 10, 120.5 PPG, 48.2 FG%
• Minnesota: 7-3 in last 10, 114.3 PPG, 46.8 FG%
• Over: Total has gone over in 4 of OKC’s last 6 road games

📌 Final Prediction

Expect OKC to respond with intensity, but Minnesota will not go quietly, especially at home. Game 4 projects as another offensive showcase. While the Thunder have the edge in late-game execution, the Wolves will keep it close.

Final Score: Thunder 116, Timberwolves 112

Best Bet: Over 218.5
Top Props: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 pts, Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 ast, Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 reb