NBA Picks: Pacers vs Knicks Game 1 – Best Bets & Player Props (May 21, 2025)

The Eastern Conference Finals begin Wednesday, May 21, 2025, with the Indiana Pacers (50-32) visiting the New York Knicks (51-31) at Madison Square Garden. Tip-off is set for 5:00 PM CT on TNT/Max. These two classic rivals reignite their postseason feud, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

Spread: Knicks -4.5
Total: 223.5
Moneyline: Knicks -185, Pacers +155

🏀 Game Preview

The Knicks are back in the East Finals for the first time in over a decade, led by Jalen Brunson, who has been one of the league’s most consistent playoff performers. The Pacers counter with a dynamic offensive system centered around Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Indiana’s fast-paced offense (117.4 PPG) meets New York’s physical, defense-first approach (4th in opponent PPG this postseason). Expect fireworks — and lots of whistles.

🔥 Best Bet: Over 223.5 Total Points (-115)

The Pacers want to run — they average the most assists per game (29.2) and push the pace with multiple playmakers. While the Knicks play slower, they’ve consistently hit the over in home playoff games when Brunson is rolling. With both teams rested and healthy, Game 1 should be played at a higher tempo than expected.

Kingpin AI projection: Knicks 115, Pacers 111

🎯 Top Player Prop Bets

1. Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 Points

Brunson has scored 30+ in five of his last six playoff games. Against Indiana’s less physical backcourt defense, expect him to dominate the mid-range and draw plenty of fouls. He’s the Knicks’ unquestioned closer — and he delivers at MSG.

2. Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists

New York may slow him down as a scorer, but Haliburton will still distribute effectively. He’s averaging 9.2 assists this season and has hit double-digit dimes in four of his last five games. Look for drive-and-kicks to the corners and quick feeds to cutters like Siakam and Turner.

3. Pascal Siakam Over 18.5 Points

Siakam has been efficient (51.9 FG%) and is a tough matchup for the Knicks’ forwards. He should get touches in transition and in the halfcourt against mismatches. Siakam has scored 20+ in three straight games and will be key if the Pacers keep this close.

📈 Additional Matchup Notes

• Pacers: 8-2 last 10 games, averaging 118.2 PPG during that stretch
• Knicks: 7-3 last 10 games, holding opponents under 109 PPG at home
• ATS Trends: Knicks 5-2 ATS last 7 at home; Pacers 4-1 ATS last 5 overall

 

Prediction

This is a close matchup, but the Knicks’ home-court advantage and Brunson’s leadership give them the slight edge. The Pacers will push the pace and keep things competitive, but New York’s size and rebounding will matter late.

Final Score: Knicks 115, Pacers 111

Best Bet: Over 223.5 Points
Top Props: Brunson Over 27.5 pts, Haliburton Over 8.5 ast, Siakam Over 18.5 pts