Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction Game 6 NBA Playoffs 5/18

Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction Game 6 NBA Playoffs 5/18

© Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports


NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 6 Preview and Prediction

Dallas, TX; May 18, 2024, 5:00 PM EST

Game Odds

Odds by ESPN BET

Time Spread Total Moneyline
5:00 PM OKC +3.5 (-110) o209.5 (-105) +140
- DAL -3.5 (-110) u209.5 (-115) -170

Game Overview

The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) will face the Dallas Mavericks (50-32) in the sixth game of their Western Conference semifinal series. The game is scheduled for May 18, 2024, at 5:00 PM EST at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavericks lead the series 3-2, but the Thunder are expected to make a strong push to extend the series to a decisive Game 7.

Given the high stakes, this matchup promises to be closely contested. Let’s delve into the key factors that will influence the outcome of this crucial game.


Team Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have been led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.1 points per game with an impressive 53.5% shooting from the field. His playmaking ability (6.2 APG) and leadership are vital for Oklahoma City's success. Rookie Chet Holmgren has also been a significant contributor, averaging 7.9 rebounds per game and providing a strong presence in the paint.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks rely heavily on Luka Dončić, who is putting up 33.9 points per game while also leading the team in rebounds (9.2 RPG) and assists (9.8 APG). Dončić's ability to control the game makes him a constant threat. However, the Mavericks' overall depth will be tested, especially with Dončić listed as day-to-day for this critical game.


Injuries and Player Matchups

Injuries could play a significant role in the outcome of this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have a relatively healthy roster with only Olivier Sarr listed as out for the season. This gives them a significant advantage in terms of depth and available rotations.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are facing more significant injury concerns. Luka Dončić is listed as day-to-day, and his availability will be crucial for Dallas. Additionally, they are without Maxi Kleber and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, which could affect their defensive capabilities and frontcourt depth.


Recent Performances

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have had mixed results in the series, winning two of their last five games against the Mavericks. Their most recent loss, a 104-92 defeat, highlighted some of their struggles. However, their strong win in Game 4 (100-96) in Dallas shows they can compete effectively on the road.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have performed well, winning three of the last five games. Their ability to secure a win in Oklahoma City in Game 5 (104-92) demonstrated their resilience and capability to perform under pressure. However, their reliance on Dončić and injury concerns could pose challenges in this high-stakes game.



Analyzing the factors at play, the Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to keep this game very close, making the +3.5 point spread a favorable pick. Here’s why:

  • Depth and Health: The Thunder have a healthier roster, which allows them to maintain high energy and effective rotations throughout the game.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Impact: Gilgeous-Alexander has been consistently excellent, and his ability to score and create plays will be crucial against the Mavericks' defense.
  • Recent Road Performance: The Thunder’s recent win in Dallas shows they can handle the pressure of playing away from home in crucial games.
  • Injury Concerns for Dallas: With Luka Dončić’s status uncertain and key players like Kleber out, the Mavericks may struggle to maintain their defensive and offensive efficiency.

Given these factors, our prediction supports the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the +3.5 point spread. The Thunder's depth, health, and ability to compete on the road position them well to keep this game tight, potentially pushing the series to a decisive Game 7.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

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