Heat vs Knicks Prediction Game 3 NBA Playoffs 5/6

© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Game Preview: Knicks vs Heat (May 6, 2023) Pregame

As the New York Knicks and the Miami Heat head into game 3 of the Eastern Conference second round, the series is tied at 1-1. The Knicks defeated the Heat 111-105 in the last meeting with Jalen Brunson leading the way with 30 points, while Caleb Martin scored 22 for the Heat. Experts, NBA picks and computer NBA picks and predictions are split on this game, making it an exciting matchup for NBA fans. Miami is favored by 3.5 according to Fanduel Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 208.5. Miami ranks second in the NBA in giving up just 109.8 points per game while holding opponents to 48.2% shooting. The Knicks are 32-20 against Eastern Conference opponents, but are last in the conference with 22.9 assists per game, led by Brunson averaging 6.2. The top performers for the Heat includes Bam Adebayo, who is scoring 20.4 points per game with 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Jimmy Butler is also playing well, averaging 23.7 points and 4.4 rebounds while shooting 59.9% over the last 10 games. For the Knicks, Brunson is averaging 25 points, 4.7 assists and two steals, while RJ Barrett is averaging 18.3 points and 3.3 assists over the past 10 games. The Heat have won seven of their last 10 games, averaging 119.3 points, 41.9 rebounds, 27.1 assists, 7.3 steals and 3.1 blocks per game while shooting 50.0% from the field. The Knicks have won six of their last 10 games, averaging 108.9 points, 46.7 rebounds, 21.6 assists, 8.6 steals and 4.7 blocks per game while shooting 45.3% from the field. Injuries for the Heat include Victor Oladipo, who is out for the season with a knee injury, Tyler Herro who is out with a hand injury, and Jimmy Butler who is day-to-day with an ankle injury. For the Knicks, Isaiah Roby is out with an ankle injury and Jericho Sims is out for the season with a shoulder injury. The game promises to be an intense matchup with NBA picks, parlay and predictions aplenty. Fans can catch the action on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Knicks: Offensive Analysis

The New York Knicks have had a successful season thus far, finishing with a record of 47-35 and landing them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Heading into game 3 of the second round against the Miami Heat, the series is tied 1-1. In order to secure a victory in Miami, the Knicks must have a strong offensive performance. The Knicks have been averaging 114.9 points per game, ranking them 13th in the league. Jalen Brunson has been the leading scorer for the team, averaging 25 points per game along with 4.7 assists and 2 steals. However, the team as a whole has struggled with assists, ranking 29th in the league with only 22.6 per game. New York's shooting efficiency has also been lacking, with an effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranking them 20th in the league. They shoot 35% from beyond the arc and 54.6% from two-point range. They also rank 23rd in the league in assists per field goal made, with only 0.544. In terms of rebounds, the Knicks have been dominant with a total of 55.5 per game, ranking them 3rd in the league. They also rank 2nd in the league in offensive rebounds, averaging 12.7 per game. However, they struggle with turnovers and personal fouls, averaging 13.1 turnovers per game and 20.2 personal fouls per game. In order to secure a victory against the Heat, the Knicks will need to improve their shooting efficiency and ball movement, as well as limit their turnovers and fouls. If they can utilize their strength in rebounding and get some key contributions from players outside of Brunson, they have a strong chance of victory. However, it will take a well-rounded offensive effort to overcome the Heat's strong defensive presence.

Knicks: Defensive Analysis

The New York Knicks have been a force to reckon with this season, both offensively and defensively. In this game against the Miami Heat, defense will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the game and the series. The Knicks' defense has been solid throughout the season, holding opponents to an average of 111.9 points per game, which ranks 9th best in the NBA. The team's defensive rating stands at 108.6, which is also among the best in the league. The team's communication and chemistry on defense have been impressive, enabling them to play excellent team defense. One area where the Knicks excel is in defending the three-point line. They hold opposing teams to a mere 35.5% shooting from beyond the arc, which ranks among the top ten in the league. The Knicks' perimeter defenders, led by RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson, do an excellent job of contesting shots while also preventing dribble penetration. The Knicks are also good at forcing turnovers, averaging 6.1 steals per game, which also ranks among the top 2 in the league. The team capitalizes on these turnovers, generating easy points in transition. Additionally, the Knicks have been able to maintain their physicality on defense without fouling too much. The team's personal fouls per game (20.2) is only slightly higher than the league average, and they rank 17th in the league in that category. One area where the Knicks could improve is their help-defense, specifically in the paint. The team allows 45.6 points in the paint per game and ranks 1st in the league in that category. If the Heat can exploit this weakness and capitalize on their size in the paint, they could gain an advantage in the game. In conclusion, the Knicks have a solid defense that has carried them throughout the season. Their ability to defend the perimeter and generate turnovers could give them an edge in this game against the Heat. However, they must also improve their help-defense in the paint to avoid giving up easy points.

Heat: Offense Analysis

The NBA Picks Experts and NBA Picks Computer both predict that the Miami Heat will have the offensive edge in their upcoming game against the New York Knicks. The Heat have been averaging an impressive 119.3 points per game over their last 10 games, while shooting 50.0% from the field. In contrast, the Knicks have been averaging 108.9 points per game and shooting just 45.3% from the field over their last 10 games. The NBA Picks and Parlay predictions also suggest that the Heat will be the team to bet on, with an opening line of -3.5 and an over/under of 208.5. The Knicks may have won the last meeting between these two teams, but the Heat are favored to take the win in this game and potentially even cover the spread. One key factor in the Heat's offensive success has been their top-notch defense. They are ranked second in the NBA for fewest points given up per game at just 109.8, while holding opponents to 48.2% shooting. On the other hand, while the Knicks have a strong defense themselves, they have struggled with their offensive efficiency. They rank just 30th in the league for assists per field goal made (0.544) and 29th for assists per game (22.6). The Heat's top performers, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, are both averaging over 20 points per game, with Adebayo adding 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists, and Butler shooting an impressive 59.9% over the last 10 games. On the Knicks' side, Jalen Brunson has been averaging 25 points, 4.7 assists, and two steals, while RJ Barrett has been averaging 18.3 points and 3.3 assists over the same period. All signs point to the Heat having the upper hand on offense in this game. Their strong defense and offensive efficiency should help them secure the win and potentially cover the spread, according to NBA experts and computer predictions.

Heat: Defensive Analysis

In the upcoming game between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat, the Heat have a decisive advantage defensively. The Heat rank second in the NBA in points allowed per game, giving up only 109.8 points. They also hold their opponents to a mere 48.2% shooting, which is the lowest in the NBA. On the other hand, the Knicks rank ninth in points allowed per game, with their opponents averaging 111.9 points per game. They also allow their opponents to shoot at a 53.5% effective field goal percentage, which is eighth-highest in the NBA. Bam Adebayo is the top performer on defense for the Heat, averaging 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. This is complemented by Jimmy Butler, who has been averaging 23.7 points and 4.4 rebounds while shooting 59.9% over the past ten games. The Knicks have struggled defensively, and need to focus on limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. Jalen Brunson leads the Knicks with 25 points per game and four steals, while RJ Barrett averages 3.3 assists per game over the past ten games. In order to secure a win over the Knicks in this game, the Heat will need to lean on their dominant defense and elite play from Adebayo and Butler. With their advantage on defense, the Heat are poised to come out on top.

Injury Report

The Miami Heat will be without guard Victor Oladipo for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. Tyler Herro is also out with a hand injury. Jimmy Butler is listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury. On the other side, the New York Knicks will be missing Isaiah Roby due to an ankle injury and Jericho Sims for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. These injuries could have an impact on the game, particularly for the Heat who will be missing two key players in Oladipo and Herro. However, the Heat have shown resilience in the past and have a deep bench that can step up in their absence. As for the Knicks, they will need to rely on their starters to step up in the absence of Roby and Sims. Overall, both teams will need to adjust to these absences and find ways to still compete at a high level. It will be interesting to see how each team responds to these injuries and adjusts their game plan accordingly.

Betting Trends

The Miami Heat and New York Knicks are tied 1-1 heading into game three of the Eastern Conference second round. The betting line for the game is Heat -3.5 with an over/under of 208.5 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. When looking at the betting trends for both teams, there are several factors to consider. The Heat are 24-28 in Eastern Conference games and have an overall record of 44-38, ranking them eighth in the Eastern Conference. They have been performing well in their last 10 games, going 7-3 and averaging 119.3 points per game while shooting 50.0% from the field. They have also been solid defensively, holding opponents to an average of 113.1 points per game. Jimmy Butler has been a key player for Miami, averaging 23.7 points and 4.4 rebounds while shooting 59.9% over the last 10 games. However, Butler is listed as day-to-day due to an ankle injury, which could impact the Heat's performance. Meanwhile, the Knicks have a record of 47-35 and rank fifth in the Eastern Conference. They are 32-20 against Eastern Conference opponents and have been performing well in their last 10 games, going 6-4 and averaging 108.9 points per game while shooting 45.3% from the field. Jalen Brunson has been a standout player for the Knicks, averaging 25 points, 4.7 assists, and two steals per game. However, New York is last in the Eastern Conference with 22.9 assists per game. When considering the betting trends it is important to keep in mind that Miami ranks second in the NBA in giving up just 109.8 points per game while holding opponents to 48.2% shooting. This strong defense could impact the over/under line for the game. Additionally, the Knicks' offensive and defensive values are ranked 13th and 9th, respectively. 

Prediction: 

Expert predictions and NBA picks by computer models heavily favor the Miami Heat to win this game. However, our analysis suggests that the Knicks are a stronger team than they've been given credit for, and currently offer value as the underdogs with a spread of +3.5 points. The Heat will be without Victor Oladipo which will be a challenge for them. Nevertheless, it's expected to be a close game, and the Knicks have the potential to come out on top and pull ahead in the Eastern Conference second round series. 

Pick: Knicks (+3.5)